WI-"The far superior pollster (© Krazen) Marquette" has Obama up 8

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor. 
Lets say Obama out preforms the polls and gets 52% of the vote.  What will Romney get then? 48?  I mean 4 points would be generous to Obama as far as extrapolating to November from these numbers.     

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor.

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.

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Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

So you think Obama will out preform Romney with undecideds?  LOL.  That is not how it works. 

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.    

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor.

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.

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Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

So you think Obama will out preform Romney with undecideds?  LOL.  That is not how it works.  

So you think Romney will win over 80% of undecideds? LOL. That is not how it works.

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent of the undecides who typically vote republican and will win at least 60% of the remaining undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.    

[AmericanNation]

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.  If the race is 48-45 Obama and Romney wins over 60% undecideds, than what is the final outcome? 

[AmericanNation]

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent and will win something at least 60% of undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.   

52-48, which you claimed as best-case for Obama, means Romney wins over 80% of undecideds. Elementary-school maths.

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.

You mean the part that you added after I posted?
If the race is 48-45 Obama [...]

And where do you get this number from? Random wishful thinking?

A composite of polls, intelligence, and trends.  Obama is up, but he isn't above 50 and he isn't up 8.  Just like Tammy Baldwin isn't tied with Tommy Thompson like PPP said yesterday.  Use your head with this stuff, everyone knows the weights or sample might be slightly off.     

[AmericanNation]

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent and will win something at least 60% of undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.   

52-48, which you claimed as best-case for Obama, means Romney wins over 80% of undecideds. Elementary-school maths.

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.

You mean the part that you added after I posted?
If the race is 48-45 Obama [...]

And where do you get this number from? Random wishful thinking?

A composite of polls, intelligence, and trends.  Obama is up, but he isn't above 50 and he isn't up 8.  Just like Tammy Baldwin isn't tied with Tommy Thompson like PPP said yesterday.  Use your head with this stuff, everyone knows the weights or sample might be slightly off.     

OK, guy. Obama got 56% in 2008, if you believe his ceiling is 52% and that this poll, as well as the PPP one, is overestimating him, wait and see in november what happens . I think that even if he loses the election, Obama will carry Wisconsin by at least 4-6 points.

Umm ok, I think Obama can lose and possibly win Wisconsin by 0-3 points.  Like 2000 and  2004.  That is probably his best case scenario given that from 2010 through 2012 no democrat has won statewide in Wisconsin and given how strong the nature of that trend has been.  2008 looks to be the obvious outlier in the last 12 year period.           

[AmericanNation]

Paul Ryan basically is a new version of Jack Kemp.  Ryan was a Kemp congressional aide.  

Also, the polling aggregate for Wisconsin is 47- 44 Obama right now, so my model of 48 - 45 is really unreasonable.  O, wait...   

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin GOP households:

"Honey, we just got through that whole recall debacle, let's take a few weeks off and say we'll vote for Obama if the pollsters call."

At work, on vacation, or not paying attention.  That's a huge number of people the first week of July.  ...They just started noticing the R US Senate primary this week.  Most of the white middle class is out on a jet ski over the 4th.