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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 5643 times)
NY Jew
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« on: July 11, 2012, 03:24:59 pm »
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according to this website
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf

they only polled 952 people throughout the whole country (bet you not one was in a area that Jews actually voted for McCain).

and there was no significant difference in polling between any region of the country (the North East finished 2nd out 4 in highest % for Obama)


Since it's very possible that in NYC McCain possibly even won the Jewish vote (he had around 25 eds where he got over 90% plus many more in both the 80% and 70%). he also got 90% in eds in Nassau, Orange, Rockland, and Ocean (NJ) counties. he clearly (look at the results) also did well with jews in many other Jewish parts of the north east.

based on these facts those polls are 100% worthless there is no way that they could even be close to accurate.

In short McCain most likely actually did much better then the polls stated he did (and the Jewish vote numbers are not worth the paper their written on).
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 03:20:50 pm by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2012, 02:21:26 pm »
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You need to accept that most Jews in this country are liberals.
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2012, 02:40:58 pm »
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Not all Jews are ultra-Orthodox.
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2012, 03:02:30 pm »
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Not all Jews are ultra-Orthodox.

Only 13% of American Jews are Orthodox. Reform and Conservative Jews are much more likely to be politically liberal, and also much less likely to live in heavily Jewish enclaves.
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phk
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2012, 04:31:39 pm »
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The Orthodox Jews have much higher TFRs than the others. The Reform TFR is estimated at below the 1.8 that is recorded for US Whites, which is already below replacement. I would not be surprised if under-18 Jews were already more Orthodox than Jews at large, especially as Reform/Conservative meld into the American mean and already have low birth rates.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 05:02:37 pm by phk »Logged

NY Jew
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2012, 05:25:51 pm »
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it's still mathematically impossible for those numbers to be accurate.

NE Jews would have to have voted much more liberal then Jews from SF for this to be remotely accurate.

argue based on math.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2012, 05:52:44 pm »
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Not all Jews are ultra-Orthodox.

Only 13% of American Jews are Orthodox. Reform and Conservative Jews are much more likely to be politically liberal, and also much less likely to live in heavily Jewish enclaves.
first of all I think we're around 15% now (though in 2008 it was probably around 13%)


but that's irrelevant to my point

at least 80% of all Orthodox Jews (and they also probably also voted for McCain at a higher rate then other Orthodox Jews out of the NE) live in the NE and easily over half of all Russian Jews live in the NE. (do you want me to list neighborhoods where we can give actual numbers (not polls) of how strong the Jewish vote was against Obama)

the fact that the exit polls don't show any real difference between Jews for McCain from the NE and the West clearly shows that the polls underestimated the right wing Jewish vote in the NE. (and looking at Jewish areas in the NE and comparing it to the west also seems to show that the avg (non Orthodox ext.) NE Jew voted more for McCain (though he still voted for Obama) then the avg Jew in the West Coast)

and if you think it's irrelevant it would take around 28,000 Jews to vote 100% for Obama just to get back to the 74% after only including an area of around 50,000 mostly Jews (the non Jews most likely were a big chunk of Obama's 10%) in Borough Park. (now we would do this again for many other Jewish McCain neighborhoods (including the rest of BP) in NYC, LI, Upstate, NJ, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Mass, CT ext.
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« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2012, 05:55:48 pm »
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What amount of non-Orthodox USSR GOP Jews are there?
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NY Jew
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« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2012, 05:58:30 pm »
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The Orthodox Jews have much higher TFRs than the others. The Reform TFR is estimated at below the 1.8 that is recorded for US Whites, which is already below replacement. I would not be surprised if under-18 Jews were already more Orthodox than Jews at large, especially as Reform/Conservative meld into the American mean and already have low birth rates.
it was around 61% in NYC this past year. in Baltimore in 2009 there was a slight majority of all Jewish children under 5 were Orthodox.

in a few years from now I think the majority of all Jewish children born in America will be from Orthodox families.  and a few years later you will be right.  it will take a while till we're majority of the Jewish electorate though.

« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 06:01:27 pm by NY Jew »Logged
NY Jew
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2012, 06:04:07 pm »
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What amount of non-Orthodox USSR GOP Jews are there?

I don't know the number for the whole NE or country for that matter but In NYC there were 199,000 Russian Jews and 17,000 in LI, and Westchester (around 10% of this could be Orthodox)

and how conservative they are McCain got 80% in part of Brighton Beach (McCain's best non Orthodox ED in NY)
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2012, 03:47:21 pm »
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I haven't looked at the numbers, but your proposition that Orthodox Jews must be underrepresented in this survey of which you complain makes the assumption that Orthodox Jews vote at the same rates as non-Orthodox Jews.  I doubt that is the case, since with other religions the degree of religiosity affects voting rates.  Indeed, at one time evangelical Christians tended to shun politics as being too worldly.  It's also possible that Orthodox Jews have different response rates to pollsters.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2012, 06:08:49 pm »
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I haven't looked at the numbers, but your proposition that Orthodox Jews must be underrepresented in this survey of which you complain makes the assumption that Orthodox Jews vote at the same rates as non-Orthodox Jews.  I doubt that is the case, since with other religions the degree of religiosity affects voting rates.  Indeed, at one time evangelical Christians tended to shun politics as being too worldly.  It's also possible that Orthodox Jews have different response rates to pollsters.
Yes in Israel Orthodox Jews and Russian Jews are always underestimated in the polls
in addition the Jewish vote was determinedly by randomly placed exit polls (that weren't even looking for the jewish vote specifically) considering that Orthodox Jews (and for that matter Russian Jews) live in much less areas overall (even proportionately to their population) compared to non Orthodox Jews. It's much more likely that they were never even asked to fill out an exit poll.

my point is that if Geographically there isn't a major distinction between the NE and the rest of the country it's impossible that the total number's accurate.

for example it would take 28,000 votes 100% for Obama to counteract (back down to the 74% for Obama) just the heart of Borough Park (these numbers are based on the election results not polls)


The strong McCain vote (that doesn't exist anywhere else even close to what it does in the NE) should mean that if this poll was accurate NE Jews would be the most by far the most for McCain of all the regions listed. and that didn't happen

If you want to mathematically defend these polls (and say they didn't way underestimate the conservative voting Jewish demographics) you would have to argue that Jews (non Orthodox/Russian ext. Jews ) in the NE were voting for Obama at a 90% rate (the secular Jewish neighborhoods don't support that theory) but every where else at a around 74%.  which is also impossible because the only way that could be shown is with a much highers sample size.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2012, 06:15:25 pm by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2012, 02:03:03 am »
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could you add up the total turnout in the orthodox Jewish EDs of New York so we can calculate what approximate percentage of NY Jewish voters live in these areas (using the exit poll for the statewide total)?

It's reasonable to argue that Orthodox Jews are underrepresented in exit polls, but unless they refuse/are missed by phone pollsters at unusual rates, you're going to struggle to dismiss the phone polls on the subject -- which are the superior evidence here.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2012, 10:11:54 am »
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could you add up the total turnout in the orthodox Jewish EDs of New York so we can calculate what approximate percentage of NY Jewish voters live in these areas (using the exit poll for the statewide total)?

It's reasonable to argue that Orthodox Jews are underrepresented in exit polls, but unless they refuse/are missed by phone pollsters at unusual rates, you're going to struggle to dismiss the phone polls on the subject -- which are the superior evidence here.
in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.

it's hard to do that because figuring out exactly what the % of Jewish vote was in some areas is next to impossible.

for example in Washington Heights in the most Jewish area McCain got 40% of the vote but the area also has gentrifies and Hispanics (mostly Dominican) which is why it was only 40%.

even in very liberal areas like the Upper West Side the Jewish vote (only) was most likely higher for McCain then the avg Jewish vote outside of the NE.

PS the are were no exit polls specifically for NY jews.

« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 10:20:56 am by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2012, 08:11:55 pm »
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Could you at least try for an estimate?  For instance, you could figure out the overall turnout in an area that's ~100% Orthodox Jewish, versus the 18+ population, and then extrapolate if there's an estimate for the number of Orthodox Jews in New York.

Jews were included in the NY exit poll, also being only 3% of the sample, the results were suppressed in the public release for MoE reasons.  The data are probably available somewhere.  I'm just trying to find some empirical evidence here, however rough.

I don't know why you didn't respond to the phone poll part of my post.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2012, 10:07:54 pm »
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Could you at least try for an estimate?  For instance, you could figure out the overall turnout in an area that's ~100% Orthodox Jewish, versus the 18+ population, and then extrapolate if there's an estimate for the number of Orthodox Jews in New York.

Jews were included in the NY exit poll, also being only 3% of the sample, the results were suppressed in the public release for MoE reasons.  The data are probably available somewhere.  I'm just trying to find some empirical evidence here, however rough.

I don't know why you didn't respond to the phone poll part of my post.

I'm including Russians (when I get to areas with them) and other types of politically conservative jews in this and leaving out the typical American Jew.

I'm doing this by neighborhood so someone can correct my work.  and doing the easiest areas first.

please look at this to see if this looks accurate
Crown Heights I'm assuming it voted 90% for McCain

I'm assuming 3,000 people showed up
for a jewish vote of
2,700-300


Kiryas Yoel (I think there a quite a few votes outside of KJ that I didn't count)
2,757 - Obama 199


« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 03:09:20 pm by NY Jew »Logged
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2012, 02:18:56 am »
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You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
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NY Jew
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2012, 08:29:49 am »
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You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas
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danny
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2012, 08:56:35 am »
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in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
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NY Jew
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2012, 09:38:08 am »
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in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
I heard this from a Israeli pollster.
are you sure they don't weigh the polls in Israel to counteract this fact?

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danny
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2012, 10:59:59 am »
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in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
I heard this from a Israeli pollster.
are you sure they don't weigh the polls in Israel to counteract this fact?



Maybe they do, I can only talk about the results that are published.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2012, 12:19:20 pm »
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in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
I heard this from a Israeli pollster.
are you sure they don't weigh the polls in Israel to counteract this fact?



Maybe they do, I can only talk about the results that are published.

Though now that you brought up the topic I think the problem might be related to the direct elections. (there were some weird results in the polling in 96, 99, and 2003)

I think I might have heard this regarding the 2001 election.
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2012, 12:30:03 pm »
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There is no flippin' way McCain won the Jewish vote in NYC. End of story.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2012, 12:46:38 pm »
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There is no flippin' way McCain won the Jewish vote in NYC. End of story.
any sane person who looks at the numbers will relize there is a very good chance that McCain won the NYC Jewish vote.  McCain won almost every single majority Jewish ED and did very well in many other EDs that had a lot of Jews

If you don't see the possibility that McCain won the NYC Jewish vote either didn't look at the numbers or are don't know math.
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brittain33
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2012, 12:53:12 pm »
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How are the totals coming out for votes in the EDs and as a share of the population as a whole?

You can win 99% of Crown Heights and Brighton Beach and not have a majority of the Jewish vote in NYC given that there are 1+ million Jews in the city. I am counting secular or non-religious Jews, or Jews who go to services on the high holidays but arent regularly affiliated with a synagogue, as Jews if they identify as such to a pollster.
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