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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 5256 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #50 on: July 31, 2012, 01:36:36 am »
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what I'm doing is going through different Orthodox (and soon also Russian communities) to estimate the actual vote (though I'm also trying to use low estimates for the most part) of conservative Jewish demographics in the NE based on the actual results so we can then figure out (assuming my number is correct) how much the liberal Jewish demographics would have to vote to have the NE numbers meet the actual number in the exit polls for the NE.

Yes...and unless every orthodox Jew fits neatly into an election district, the best way of doing that is to approximate the average Orthodox Jewish community turnout, and then use the estimate of Orthodox Jews 18+ in New York state times that number to estimate the Orthodox Jewish vote.  Your current method is going to miss a lot, isn't it?

according to this site (this site is easier to read then the one it quoted from)

(this underestimates NYC, this is because it uses 2002 Federation numbers for NYC and not the recently released numbers)
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html

total Jewish population in the country 6,588,065 in 2011 (these numbers can also be nitpicked but lets assume their accurate)
this is not of sample size
total Jewish population in NYS 1,635,020
these are of sample size
NE 3,157,670
West 1,613,225
South 1,107,140
MW 710,030

(considering over half of all Orthodox Jews in America are living in NYS I think my point is very clear)

...no
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« Reply #51 on: July 31, 2012, 08:14:59 am »
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what I'm doing is going through different Orthodox (and soon also Russian communities) to estimate the actual vote (though I'm also trying to use low estimates for the most part) of conservative Jewish demographics in the NE based on the actual results so we can then figure out (assuming my number is correct) how much the liberal Jewish demographics would have to vote to have the NE numbers meet the actual number in the exit polls for the NE.

Yes...and unless every orthodox Jew fits neatly into an election district, the best way of doing that is to approximate the average Orthodox Jewish community turnout, and then use the estimate of Orthodox Jews 18+ in New York state times that number to estimate the Orthodox Jewish vote.  Your current method is going to miss a lot, isn't it?
1. I can't accurately estimate their vote (because in general the more Orthodox the neighborhood the more likelihood that the Orthodox Jew in question voted republican)
so even though I will though they voted for McCain they were likely voting at rates much lower then in almost every single Orthodox neighborhood.
2. I can pretend they don't exist because I'm sure I can prove my point with or with out them.


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...no
If you were trying to poll Jews ACCURATELY
is this scenario possible
NYS 1,635,020 (to small a sample size to report on)

NE 3,157,670 (good sample size)
West 1,613,225 (good sample size)
South 1,107,140 (good sample size)
MW 710,030 (good sample size)

wouldn't there be a very good chance you'll underestimate the NYS vote
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« Reply #52 on: August 02, 2012, 01:30:31 pm »
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I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...
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« Reply #53 on: August 02, 2012, 01:40:49 pm »
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Who else loves a good old tin ear?
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« Reply #54 on: August 02, 2012, 05:02:45 pm »
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I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...
many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

but remember the exit polls were clearly wrong (and jews voted more for McCain) which is why this thread exists.
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« Reply #55 on: August 03, 2012, 03:10:25 pm »
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I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...
many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

but remember the exit polls were clearly wrong (and jews voted more for McCain) which is why this thread exists.


This thread exists because of your conspiracy theories...
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« Reply #56 on: August 05, 2012, 04:46:43 pm »
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I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...
many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

but remember the exit polls were clearly wrong (and jews voted more for McCain) which is why this thread exists.


This thread exists because of your conspiracy theories...
it's not a conspiracy theory it's mathematical facts that you can check up assuming your smart enough to know elementary school math. 
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« Reply #57 on: August 09, 2012, 05:54:04 pm »
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NYS 1,635,020 (to small a sample size to report on)

NE 3,157,670 (good sample size)
West 1,613,225 (good sample size)
South 1,107,140 (good sample size)
MW 710,030 (good sample size)

wouldn't there be a very good chance you'll underestimate the NYS vote

What?  That's not how random sampling works
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« Reply #58 on: August 09, 2012, 07:19:53 pm »
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NYS 1,635,020 (to small a sample size to report on)

NE 3,157,670 (good sample size)
West 1,613,225 (good sample size)
South 1,107,140 (good sample size)
MW 710,030 (good sample size)

wouldn't there be a very good chance you'll underestimate the NYS vote

What?  That's not how random sampling works
please elaborate how you think it works and then I'll respond

my basic point is since most Jews who live in Jewish majority area vote very conservative and most jews who live in non Jewish majority areas vote liberal.  since random sampling is random and majority of all areas with jews are a non jewish majority random sampling of the country at large is worthless.  I don't think it's possible to make a accurate poll of the jewish vote that doesn't have a decent sample size from NY (enough to publish by the networks).
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« Reply #59 on: August 09, 2012, 10:22:33 pm »
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Oh the passion of prophet scorned!

Instead of screaming that this or that data is "fake" or whatever, one could make a fairly obvious point that it is dangerous to use data collected for one purpose to make other claims, especially about small subpopulations. The national exit polls are NOT designed to figure out how the Jews (or, for that matter, the Pastafarians) voted: whatever information of that sort is obtained is incidental. If one were trying to do Jewish exit polls, naturally, one would be weighting the sample to match the Jewish population distribution. The village of Kiryat Joel is negligible, if the goal is to figure out whether Obama or McCain will be president, but it is quite a bit more notable when viewed as a Jewish population center. As the data wasn't collected to figure out how the Jews voted, naturally it will be underepresented in the national subsample that happens to be Jewish.

There is nothing special about the Jews here - it would be the same if we tried to figure out how "the rich and famous 1%" voted: I strongly suspect that the national sample doesn't get many people from the Hamptons or the relevant Fifth Avenue blocks.  There are statistical techniques that could be used to try to remedy that, but I doubt they've been used in this case - at least nothingis mentioned about it. In any case, given that it is extremely unlikely that more than a couple Kiryat Joel residents were polled, that wouldn't be easy to do.

To sum up, the point that NY Jew makes is, actually, sensible. It may well be extremely misleading to make claims based simply on the proportion of the Jews in the national exit poll that claimed to vote D or R. There are simply too few Jews and they are simply too unevenly distributed and heterogenous.  One would definitely need to try to reweight the sample, at the very least - and it is not at all obvious that this has been done, nor that enough data has been collected from the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods for this to be doable. At the very least, one would need to know more about the methodology here involved. While I would not go as far as saying the claims of that paper do not match reality, I would definitely support taking them with a big grain of salt until I see more data.

All that is reasonable enough. But NY Jew presents his - actually, quite reasonable - theory in such a way that one is inclined to dismiss it without even considering.
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« Reply #60 on: August 09, 2012, 10:26:10 pm »
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my basic point is since most Jews who live in Jewish majority area vote very conservative and most jews who live in non Jewish majority areas vote liberal.  since random sampling is random and majority of all areas with jews are a non jewish majority random sampling of the country at large is worthless.  I don't think it's possible to make a accurate poll of the jewish vote that doesn't have a decent sample size from NY (enough to publish by the networks).

A perfectly valid - or, at least, plausible (to the extent that we don't have enough data to either confirm or refute it) - point. If only you made it without screaming, I would have bothered to read what you are saying a lot earlier.
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« Reply #61 on: August 09, 2012, 10:36:14 pm »
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What?  That's not how random sampling works

Random sampling of what? This polls wasn't designed to give a good estimate of the Jewish vote - it's prime objective is to figure out who won. A "Jewish" poll would have to sample New York a lot heavier than Texas. A national poll would need to oversample NY to give reliable data on NY Jewry - and the fact that a separate number on NY is not reported suggests this is not done (sensibly enough). NY ultra-Orthodox are pretty negligible as far as the national exit poll is concerned, but much more important to figure out the Jewish vote.  Given how concentrated the ultra-Orthodox vote is, it is unlikely to have been sampled much. Perhaps some statistical adjustment has been made to take account of this: but it is not obvious. And, in any case, it is very unlikely that substantial enough numbers from those insular communities have been sampled in the first place to make such adjustment doable. Not at all a problem for the national exit poll. But a big problem if you are after figuring out how "the Jews" voted.
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« Reply #62 on: August 09, 2012, 10:45:59 pm »
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And now let me make an insidious point Smiley

Who cares how the "average" Jews vote? It's the average body temperature in the hospital (including the morgue). Jews, at this point, are not a unified community. There are, properly speaking, the assimilationist American Jews  - "American citizens of the Mosaic faith" to use an old turn of words Smiley). These are, of course, extremely liberal - probably, even more liberal than the polls suggest. And there are the ultra-Orthodox - the traditionalist isolated community, that continues its autonomous existence in the same way it had existed for millenia in Europe. These, of course, vote differently. If polls asked people to identify, what sort of Jews they are, most likely there would not have been a sufficient sample to make any claims about the latter, but we may reasonably conjecture they didn't vote in such large numbers for Obama Smiley) These are two very distinct communities, with very little in common between them - why average them out?
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« Reply #63 on: August 10, 2012, 01:04:22 am »
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my basic point is since most Jews who live in Jewish majority area vote very conservative and most jews who live in non Jewish majority areas vote liberal.  since random sampling is random and majority of all areas with jews are a non jewish majority random sampling of the country at large is worthless.  I don't think it's possible to make a accurate poll of the jewish vote that doesn't have a decent sample size from NY (enough to publish by the networks).

A perfectly valid - or, at least, plausible (to the extent that we don't have enough data to either confirm or refute it) - point. If only you made it without screaming, I would have bothered to read what you are saying a lot earlier.
thank you for reading it
but how can I scream while typing?

if you can tell me what specifically you didn't like about my tone on this specific thread that will be greatly appreciated.
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« Reply #64 on: August 10, 2012, 06:08:22 am »
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What?  That's not how random sampling works

Random sampling of what? This polls wasn't designed to give a good estimate of the Jewish vote - it's prime objective is to figure out who won. A "Jewish" poll would have to sample New York a lot heavier than Texas. A national poll would need to oversample NY to give reliable data on NY Jewry - and the fact that a separate number on NY is not reported suggests this is not done (sensibly enough). NY ultra-Orthodox are pretty negligible as far as the national exit poll is concerned, but much more important to figure out the Jewish vote.  Given how concentrated the ultra-Orthodox vote is, it is unlikely to have been sampled much. Perhaps some statistical adjustment has been made to take account of this: but it is not obvious. And, in any case, it is very unlikely that substantial enough numbers from those insular communities have been sampled in the first place to make such adjustment doable. Not at all a problem for the national exit poll. But a big problem if you are after figuring out how "the Jews" voted.

No, his point is totally valid with exit polls, like you point out.  My exchange with him has been going on for several pages and has moved onto the standard fare about how exit polls aren't representative.  Mainly, I'm still unclear what sort of empirical use he's going for when he adds up these Orthodox communities...as far as I can tell, his point is, "look how many Orthodox Jews, and they're very Republican, so Northeastern Jews must be much more Republican than believed!"  Actually, I'm still not quite sure of his central claim here...sometimes he seems to be saying that national polls are useless for telling how Orthodox Jews vote (duh?); sometimes he seems to be complaining about the exit polls (fair); sometimes he seems to be suggesting Northeastern Jews are much more conservative than reported (his methodology is inadequate for that); and often it's unclear.

Random sampling of what? This polls wasn't designed to give a good estimate of the Jewish vote - it's prime objective is to figure out who won. A "Jewish" poll would have to sample New York a lot heavier than Texas. A national poll would need to oversample NY to give reliable data on NY Jewry - and the fact that a separate number on NY is not reported suggests this is not done (sensibly enough). NY ultra-Orthodox are pretty negligible as far as the national exit poll is concerned, but much more important to figure out the Jewish vote.  Given how concentrated the ultra-Orthodox vote is, it is unlikely to have been sampled much. Perhaps some statistical adjustment has been made to take account of this: but it is not obvious. And, in any case, it is very unlikely that substantial enough numbers from those insular communities have been sampled in the first place to make such adjustment doable. Not at all a problem for the national exit poll. But a big problem if you are after figuring out how "the Jews" voted.

?  He listed a bunch of populations, and then claims New York's vote share will be "underrepresented" in a random poll because New York is a smaller population than "the Northeast."  At least, I think that's what he meant; again, it's unclear.  Even if he was talking about non-random sampling (e.g., an exit poll), I still have no idea what he's saying.  You're right about the flaws of the exit poll, but what does that have to do with New York being a relatively small population/subsample?

You seem to find his argument a lot more cogent than I do.  Maybe I'm just being thick.
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« Reply #65 on: August 10, 2012, 03:22:11 pm »
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Yes, the argument is reasonable. Think of it that way. We do know that ultra-Orthodox live in some compact isolated communities in NY state. These ultra-Orthodox form a substantial part of the Jewish population not merely of the state, but of the entire US. Any poll that would have been designed to find out how the "average Jew" voted would take care of actually sampling from these communities.

To the best of our knowledge, no such poll has ever been conducted. Rather, national exit polls were used. As far as the behavior of an "average American" these isolated communities are not particularly important and could well have been missed. Neither, it seems, there has been an attempt to match the weights so that the ultra-Orthodox are properly represented in the sample (in fact, the data on the number of the ultra-Orthodox is not reported and, likely, wasn't even collected). Ultra-Orthodox are entirely inconsequential for the purposes of the national exit poll. But they ARE important for the answer to the question at hand. This MAY be a problem - finding out whether it is, would require looking at the data closely.

This is, I  believe, a well-known statistical problem of dealing w/ very small subsamples. It rears its head, for instance, whenever they try to estimate things about the ultra-rich from the general census surveys - there are just not enough ultra-rich in those samples, and the ones there are may very well be not very representative.
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« Reply #66 on: August 10, 2012, 05:33:19 pm »
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What?  That's not how random sampling works

Random sampling of what? This polls wasn't designed to give a good estimate of the Jewish vote - it's prime objective is to figure out who won. A "Jewish" poll would have to sample New York a lot heavier than Texas. A national poll would need to oversample NY to give reliable data on NY Jewry - and the fact that a separate number on NY is not reported suggests this is not done (sensibly enough). NY ultra-Orthodox are pretty negligible as far as the national exit poll is concerned, but much more important to figure out the Jewish vote.  Given how concentrated the ultra-Orthodox vote is, it is unlikely to have been sampled much. Perhaps some statistical adjustment has been made to take account of this: but it is not obvious. And, in any case, it is very unlikely that substantial enough numbers from those insular communities have been sampled in the first place to make such adjustment doable. Not at all a problem for the national exit poll. But a big problem if you are after figuring out how "the Jews" voted.

No, his point is totally valid with exit polls, like you point out.  My exchange with him has been going on for several pages and has moved onto the standard fare about how exit polls aren't representative.  Mainly, I'm still unclear what sort of empirical use he's going for when he adds up these Orthodox communities... as far as I can tell, his point is, "look how many Orthodox Jews, and they're very Republican, so Northeastern Jews must be much more Republican than believed!" 


Quote
Actually, I'm still not quite sure of his central claim here...sometimes he seems to be saying that national polls are useless for telling how Orthodox Jews vote (duh?);

no what I'm saying is that since Orthodox Jews are tremendously underrepresented in the polls.  The polls are useless to giving an accurate figure of the total Jewish vote.

Quote
sometimes he seems to be complaining about the exit polls (fair);
that's the main point

Quote
sometimes he seems to be suggesting Northeastern Jews are much more conservative than reported
I'm saying that Northeastern Jews are much more conservative than Jews out side of the North East because of the numbers of non stereotypical Jews.

Assuming the numbers to the poll are accurate only for the stereotypical Jews.  the statement I quoted from you is accurate.  and even if the polls are inaccurate for stereotypical Jews the statement will still be accurate if the numbers for the avg stereotypical Jews are similar in all 4 regions.
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« Reply #67 on: August 10, 2012, 06:04:21 pm »
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here's the basic point
this is the breakdown of Jews and Orthodox Jews by region
% of all Jews in the country    % Orthodox Jews in the country
NE 47.9%                                 81.8%
S 16.8%                                   5.3%
MW 10.8%                               5.9%
W 24.5%                                 7%

In addition I said the avg Orthodox Jew in NY Metro is much more Conservative then the avg Orthodox Jew out of it.

this is also can be shown for Russian Jews and other types of non stereotypical Jews who are also disproportionately represented in the NE.
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« Reply #68 on: August 10, 2012, 06:05:03 pm »
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Yes, the argument is reasonable. Think of it that way. We do know that ultra-Orthodox live in some compact isolated communities in NY state. These ultra-Orthodox form a substantial part of the Jewish population not merely of the state, but of the entire US. Any poll that would have been designed to find out how the "average Jew" voted would take care of actually sampling from these communities.

Yes, and I've never disputed that.

To the best of our knowledge, no such poll has ever been conducted. Rather, national exit polls were used. As far as the behavior of an "average American" these isolated communities are not particularly important and could well have been missed. Neither, it seems, there has been an attempt to match the weights so that the ultra-Orthodox are properly represented in the sample (in fact, the data on the number of the ultra-Orthodox is not reported and, likely, wasn't even collected). Ultra-Orthodox are entirely inconsequential for the purposes of the national exit poll. But they ARE important for the answer to the question at hand. This MAY be a problem - finding out whether it is, would require looking at the data closely.

That's not true.  The Gallup Poll, among others, aggregates Jewish data -- that's why I earlier mentioned that it matters whether Orthodox Jews were disproportionately likely to be underrepresented in phone polls.  The problems of exit polls are widely known and, again, I haven't disputed them here.

This is, I  believe, a well-known statistical problem of dealing w/ very small subsamples. It rears its head, for instance, whenever they try to estimate things about the ultra-rich from the general census surveys - there are just not enough ultra-rich in those samples, and the ones there are may very well be not very representative.

But that argues that New York's Margin of Error is large, not that New York is somehow "underestimated" -- there is no reason to believe that it is any more likely to be underestimated because it is a small subpopulation; any given subpopulation, regardless of its size, is equally likely to be underestimated/overestimated, regardless of the size of the "supra-population."  You're making a fair point that doesn't match the language he used.

Also, none of this really explains why we're (seemingly arbitrarily) adding up the populations of select Orthodox neighborhoods, and the (valid) arguments you're making don't seem possibly related to that project.
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« Reply #69 on: August 10, 2012, 06:13:43 pm »
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no what I'm saying is that since Orthodox Jews are tremendously underrepresented in the polls.  The polls are useless to giving an accurate figure of the total Jewish vote.

that's the main point

OK, so the point was to add up enough Orthodox Jews in New York to show that, if missed (as we can expect them to be by exit polls), they'd affect the numbers in exit polls?  That's a pretty heavy-handed way of doing that, but I agree you're probably right and they're missed.  I don't know why we're looking at exit polls when we have superior information from national phone polls.

I'm saying that Northeastern Jews are much more conservative than Jews out side of the North East because of the numbers of non stereotypical Jews.

Ah, yes, the Jerry Seinfeld Effect.

Assuming the numbers to the poll are accurate only for the stereotypical Jews.  the statement I quoted from you is accurate.  and even if the polls are inaccurate for stereotypical Jews the statement will still be accurate if the numbers for the avg stereotypical Jews are similar in all 4 regions.

This has never been a claim I've criticized.  I'm criticizing your methodology, and also suggesting you look at phone polling instead, which is generally much better than exit polls -- in this case especially, but also in pretty much all other cases.

It's also been consistently unclear throughout this thread what you're doing, why, and to what end...ag and I, for instance, came to completely different inferences of a statement that you were previously asked to clarify several times.  Sorry; I might be being impatient, but yeah.
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« Reply #70 on: August 10, 2012, 06:42:52 pm »
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But that argues that New York's Margin of Error is large, not that New York is somehow "underestimated"

Yeah, the point is that NY numbers may be wildly off - and that's the reason they are not reported separately. But the problem is, a good poll of Jewish voters would, probably, not have that problem Smiley

I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

Anyway, my point wasn't that NY Jew was right - it was that he was raising a valid issue. His choice of language was very unfortunate: so unfortunate, in fact, that I only started to read his posts in this thread to be able to claim he is talking nonsense. He isn't Smiley))
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« Reply #71 on: August 10, 2012, 07:02:32 pm »
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I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

No, but their daily poll adds up to a statistically significant number of respondents from even small sub-populations over time, and they periodically report it.

Anyway, my point wasn't that NY Jew was right - it was that he was raising a valid issue. His choice of language was very unfortunate: so unfortunate, in fact, that I only started to read his posts in this thread to be able to claim he is talking nonsense. He isn't Smiley))

Fair enough!  Although I'm not convinced that his posts are nonsense-free, even if there's a valid thesis or two in them somewhere...
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« Reply #72 on: August 11, 2012, 08:59:28 pm »
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I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

No, but their daily poll adds up to a statistically significant number of respondents from even small sub-populations over time, and they periodically report it.

when it comes to the Jewish vote in various I think I remember a few times that Gallop had some extreme outliers.   this is more true in polls of NY state.  I've seen a few phone polls for the Jewish vote in NY state that had completely different results a few weeks a part (the media of course took both set of polls as accurate)

for example when I saw different opinion polls of the Jewish opinion on gay marriage in NY state Iv'e seen different  polls with more then a 40 point spread.  factually on the ground Orthodox Jews could be as much as 1/3 of the NY state Jewish electorate (the few times I ever saw polls of "Orthodox" jews it was never more then 10% who supported it and even in the most liberal orthodox Jewish communities it never approaches 20% the only "question" is should we become 1 issue voters)  (just to make clear my point is just to show how polling numbers are all over the place)



PS I doubt almost anyone in the most insular (this doesn't mean most religious) Orthodox communities will ever talk to pollsters (these are the type of Jews who would vote in American elections but not Israeli ones).  In other non modern Orthodox communities also I think the response rate would be less then in the avg public by a significant margin.

I also doubt Russian Jewish voters are polled to much do to the language problem.
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« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2012, 09:04:19 pm »
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But that argues that New York's Margin of Error is large, not that New York is somehow "underestimated"

Yeah, the point is that NY numbers may be wildly off - and that's the reason they are not reported separately. But the problem is, a good poll of Jewish voters would, probably, not have that problem Smiley

I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

Anyway, my point wasn't that NY Jew was right - it was that he was raising a valid issue. His choice of language was very unfortunate: so unfortunate, in fact, that I only started to read his posts in this thread to be able to claim he is talking nonsense. He isn't Smiley))

you read my post just to make fun of them?

if you have a problem with my "choice of language" let me know what specifically so I can if possible try to change it next time.
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« Reply #74 on: August 11, 2012, 09:40:33 pm »
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when it comes to the Jewish vote in various I think I remember a few times that Gallop had some extreme outliers.   this is more true in polls of NY state.  I've seen a few phone polls for the Jewish vote in NY state that had completely different results a few weeks a part (the media of course took both set of polls as accurate)

for example when I saw different opinion polls of the Jewish opinion on gay marriage in NY state Iv'e seen different  polls with more then a 40 point spread.  factually on the ground Orthodox Jews could be as much as 1/3 of the NY state Jewish electorate (the few times I ever saw polls of "Orthodox" jews it was never more then 10% who supported it and even in the most liberal orthodox Jewish communities it never approaches 20% the only "question" is should we become 1 issue voters)  (just to make clear my point is just to show how polling numbers are all over the place)

And why is that, sample size?

PS I doubt almost anyone in the most insular (this doesn't mean most religious) Orthodox communities will ever talk to pollsters (these are the type of Jews who would vote in American elections but not Israeli ones).  In other non modern Orthodox communities also I think the response rate would be less then in the avg public by a significant margin.

I also doubt Russian Jewish voters are polled to much do to the language problem.

Both of these are reasonable hypotheses, but I'm pushing you to estimate what we can expect the impact to be, using some sort of empirical measure.  Right now you seem to be throwing out hypotheses and numbers and not doing much with either -- just kind of hoping something sticks that is compelling enough to prove your thesis.
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