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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 4959 times)
NY Jew
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« Reply #75 on: August 12, 2012, 01:06:40 am »
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for example when I saw different opinion polls of the Jewish opinion on gay marriage in NY state Iv'e seen different  polls with more then a 40 point spread.  factually on the ground Orthodox Jews could be as much as 1/3 of the NY state Jewish electorate (the few times I ever saw polls of "Orthodox" jews it was never more then 10% who supported it and even in the most liberal orthodox Jewish communities it never approaches 20% the only "question" is should we become 1 issue voters)  (just to make clear my point is just to show how polling numbers are all over the place)

And why is that, sample size?


the media usually reports it as a fickle electorate when talking to the pollsters and sites the exit polls as proof that Jews don't change.

The easiest way to prove my "thesis" would just be to publicize what zip code the polls were taken in.  unfortunately most pollsters are extremely secretive on polling info.  even a county breakdown for Jews only in NY polls would be very beneficial to proving this but I doubt they would do even that.

As it is I think I proved part of this unfortunately I don't think it possible to figure out even close to the true number because even if I can somehow estimate the exact conservative Jewish demographic vote I never will know the exact breakdown of the old polls by Jewish demographics and therefore will most likely do the same problem in reverse.

What I'm foolishly hoping for is that they can try to use certain weights to at least make these polls somewhat accurate.

since as far as I understand pollsters do this by zip code I think the same problem comes into play if they don't specifically look for the Jewish vote because even if most Jews are conservative in NYC most Zip codes's jews in NYC are majority liberal.

in regards to the phone polls I think it's just luck whether or not they happen to pick a zip code that has a lot of Orthodox Jews or miss them.  Remember their top priorities are not the Jewish vote but the overall number.

Quinnip for example almost always underestimates the Orthodox vote (this can easily be shown based on their results 100% at odds with the facts on the ground)

for example in this poll
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1756

the gay marriage vote is 100% impossible to be true
there is no way that only 11% of NY state Jews are against gay marriage (I don't even think this close to true even with the biggest Bradley effect ever)
I don't think it's possible that Orthodox Jews are less then 20% of the total electorate even using the most liberal estimates of number of voters for non Orthodox Jews and conservative estimates of number of voters for Orthodox Jews.
yet only 11% of Jews are against gay "marriage"
I've spoken to many Orthodox Jews (numerically not % wise) who voted for Obama.
I can count on my hands the number of Orthodox Jews I've spoken to who are in favor of gay "marriage"  I've met Jews who (stupidly) don't think we should be 1 issue voters, but their still against it and openly say so and even protest it.  (remember this is just trying to show you the problem with Jews in the polls)
also from what I can tell (don't want to side track) over 50% of the Russian Jewish community is against gay marriage.
(this whole point is to tell that they obviously underestimated the conservative Jewish vote)

more illustrations of the problem with that poll (and I can show you this in almost all their polls)
 in the Obama-Romney vote in NY state is 72%-24% for Obama. which is right around the number in the national polls.
now compare the Jewish numbers in that poll to these one
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY0712%20Crosstabs.pdf

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/SNY051412%20Crosstabs.pdf

even just using siena the numbers for the Jewish vote seem to change the most (I don't think it's the sample sample size and I don't think there are to many if any Jews who changed their opinion on Obama since May (I don't think anyone has ever accused Jews (of any stripe) of being undecided voters))
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« Reply #76 on: August 12, 2012, 09:24:48 pm »
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Phone polls are not done by ZIP code.

You haven't "proven" anything.  You've presented one obviously compelling thesis (the exit poll issue) and then one potentially true thesis (the phone poll issue) which you've "proven" in a way without any clear, consistent, prearranged methodology.  You may well be right

The MoE on those polls -- even if they got a perfect sample -- is nearly +/-10%.  Why would you think it's not sample size?

Again, your thesis is reasonable, but you seem like you're actively setting out to prove your thesis right...which is a problem.
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« Reply #77 on: August 13, 2012, 12:32:03 am »
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Phone polls are not done by ZIP code.

You haven't "proven" anything.  You've presented one obviously compelling thesis (the exit poll issue) and then one potentially true thesis (the phone poll issue) which you've "proven" in a way without any clear, consistent, prearranged methodology.  You may well be right

The MoE on those polls -- even if they got a perfect sample -- is nearly +/-10%.  Why would you think it's not sample size?

Again, your thesis is reasonable, but you seem like you're actively setting out to prove your thesis right...which is a problem.

My point about the zip codes was for exit polls. (the last time I reffered to zip codes I meant block)
the other point was referring to phone polls (not sure which ones do this) that take random blocks of phone numbers (which as far as understand would be based on geography)


One thing that might effect phone polls (this would only be a minor effect though) is that since it it done by each individual phone line it might overestimate single person households.

In general Orthodox Jews have some of the highest being married rates.

not sure if they adjust for this factor that certain demographics are more likely to share 1 phone line.

(not sure how cell phone will play into this now.)
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« Reply #78 on: August 13, 2012, 11:33:50 am »
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Not having read the whole thread, can one get any sense whether Orthodox Jews were underrepresented in the sample? If they were not, then NYJew's case kind of falls apart overall. If they were under-sampled, then potential he's right, assuming that there is a big ideological difference.  Does the below give any clue as to what percentage of the Jewish sample were Orthodox, and how does that comport with the breakdown between sects among the Jews who are voters? What percentage of self identified Jews over 18 call themselves "Orthodox?"  25%?  Wiki says 13%, and of adults over 18 we might be getting down close to 10%.  If so, there is just not much gas in their tank no matter how they vote.

But yes, it does appear to be an important question.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 11:44:58 am by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #79 on: August 13, 2012, 01:42:42 pm »
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Not having read the whole thread, can one get any sense whether Orthodox Jews were underrepresented in the sample? If they were not, then NYJew's case kind of falls apart overall. If they were under-sampled, then potential he's right, assuming that there is a big ideological difference.  Does the below give any clue as to what percentage of the Jewish sample were Orthodox, and how does that comport with the breakdown between sects among the Jews who are voters? What percentage of self identified Jews over 18 call themselves "Orthodox?"  25%?  Wiki says 13%, and of adults over 18 we might be getting down close to 10%.  If so, there is just not much gas in their tank no matter how they vote.

But yes, it does appear to be an important question.


but when doing a break down of the USA by region it should make a big difference.  because in the NE it's around double the % of the rest of the country.


ps that info was 8 years old by the time of the 2008 election (that itself can increase the Orthodox  % at least 1 %)
see page 16 (this was the study wiki quoted)
http://www.jewishfederations.org/local_includes/downloads/7579.pdf
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« Reply #80 on: August 13, 2012, 01:51:29 pm »
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That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?
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« Reply #81 on: August 13, 2012, 04:28:54 pm »
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That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?
it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.



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« Reply #82 on: August 13, 2012, 11:28:51 pm »
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That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?
it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.


Your ex NE numbers don't average out to 3% of the Jews outside thereof being orthodox, and 97% of the self identified Jews not. It doesn't matter that Iowa does not have many Jews. It matters what percentage of all 2,500 of them or whatever or Orthodox. Actually, that does  not matter much either. What matters is that are the other major ex-NE Jewish nodes, in particular LA, just 3% Orthodox (some of the smaller nodes you already suggested are much higher)?  That is the math you have to deal with, if just 10% of the Jewish voters are Orthodox, but twice that percentage in the NE. You get shoved out on a limb with a seemingly absurd number as to the Orthodox percentage ex-NE - unless you don't think it absurd.
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« Reply #83 on: August 13, 2012, 11:39:30 pm »
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many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

That's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard; not merely by implying that American Jews wouldn't care about millions of deaths, but also implying that American Jews actually don't care about Israelis beyond posturing.
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« Reply #84 on: August 14, 2012, 01:46:59 am »
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That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?
it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.


Your ex NE numbers don't average out to 3% of the Jews outside thereof being orthodox, and 97% of the self identified Jews not. It doesn't matter that Iowa does not have many Jews. It matters what percentage of all 2,500 of them or whatever or Orthodox. Actually, that does  not matter much either. What matters is that are the other major ex-NE Jewish nodes, in particular LA, just 3% Orthodox (some of the smaller nodes you already suggested are much higher)?  That is the math you have to deal with, if just 10% of the Jewish voters are Orthodox, but twice that percentage in the NE. You get shoved out on a limb with a seemingly absurd number as to the Orthodox percentage ex-NE - unless you don't think it absurd.
because the study you gave was 10 years old (and 8 years old as of the election) and wasn't as thorough as the local studies

Orthodox Jews have grown since then and it's very likely non Orthodox Jews actually. shrunk since then.

right now Orthodox are most likely a few% point over 10%

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« Reply #85 on: August 14, 2012, 08:22:48 am »
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OK, but the point is that the overall total Orthodox percentage to make your numbers in the hunt needs to be about 15% of Jewish voters being Orthodox, rather than 10%.  That is a pretty big jump in 10 years.
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« Reply #86 on: August 14, 2012, 02:29:56 pm »
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OK, but the point is that the overall total Orthodox percentage to make your numbers in the hunt needs to be about 15% of Jewish voters being Orthodox, rather than 10%.  That is a pretty big jump in 10 years.
one problem is there are many  different studies that have completely different numbers.
the point of combining them was just to show % breakdown of location of Jews which is usually the most accurate thing about all these surveys
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« Reply #87 on: August 15, 2012, 02:08:09 am »
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My point about the zip codes was for exit polls. (the last time I reffered to zip codes I meant block)
the other point was referring to phone polls (not sure which ones do this) that take random blocks of phone numbers (which as far as understand would be based on geography)

Right, but I already said exit polls are problematic.

I see no reason why choosing random phone numbers based on registered blocks would undersample Orthodox households...

One thing that might effect phone polls (this would only be a minor effect though) is that since it it done by each individual phone line it might overestimate single person households.

In general Orthodox Jews have some of the highest being married rates.

not sure if they adjust for this factor that certain demographics are more likely to share 1 phone line.

(not sure how cell phone will play into this now.)

Again, you're throwing out hypotheses to bolster your intuitions and hypotheses, and not creating methodologies to actually prove them.  I just don't know where you're going with this.  You can create hypotheses that run against your intuitions, too -- so this exercise doesn't seem to be leading to "proving" anything, if that's what you want to do.
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« Reply #88 on: August 15, 2012, 08:19:45 pm »
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My point about the zip codes was for exit polls. (the last time I reffered to zip codes I meant block)
the other point was referring to phone polls (not sure which ones do this) that take random blocks of phone numbers (which as far as understand would be based on geography)

Right, but I already said exit polls are problematic.

I see no reason why choosing random phone numbers based on registered blocks would undersample Orthodox households...

One thing that might effect phone polls (this would only be a minor effect though) is that since it it done by each individual phone line it might overestimate single person households.

In general Orthodox Jews have some of the highest being married rates.

not sure if they adjust for this factor that certain demographics are more likely to share 1 phone line.

(not sure how cell phone will play into this now.)

Again, you're throwing out hypotheses to bolster your intuitions and hypotheses, and not creating methodologies to actually prove them.  I just don't know where you're going with this.  You can create hypotheses that run against your intuitions, too -- so this exercise doesn't seem to be leading to "proving" anything, if that's what you want to do.


the question I have is
is random sampling 100% random?
is there a system that overplays having many different area codes and first 3 digits in a phone number.

Quote
Again, you're throwing out hypotheses to bolster your intuitions and hypotheses, and not creating methodologies to actually prove them.  I just don't know where you're going with this.  You can create hypotheses that run against your intuitions, too -- so this exercise doesn't seem to be leading to "proving" anything, if that's what you want to do.
do we agree that polls work by household an single people (with out weights) will be over estimated in the polls.

if this is true then Orthodox Jews will be underestimated in the polls.
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« Reply #89 on: August 16, 2012, 07:25:47 am »
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the question I have is
is random sampling 100% random?

No.

is there a system that overplays having many different area codes and first 3 digits in a phone number.

I'm not sure what you mean -- pollsters may skip dialing phones in ranges they know to not be in use.  Besides the valid household issue, I'm really not sure where you're going here, or what area codes have to do with it.

do we agree that polls work by household an single people (with out weights) will be over estimated in the polls.

if this is true then Orthodox Jews will be underestimated in the polls.

I don't know how/if pollsters account for this, but this topic is starting to be very frustrating for me for reasons I've stated several times.  It doesn't seem like you're interested in approaching this methodically.
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« Reply #90 on: August 16, 2012, 07:41:40 am »
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the question I have is
is random sampling 100% random?

No.

is there a system that overplays having many different area codes and first 3 digits in a phone number.

I'm not sure what you mean -- pollsters may skip dialing phones in ranges they know to not be in use.  Besides the valid household issue, I'm really not sure where you're going here, or what area codes have to do with it.

do we agree that polls work by household an single people (with out weights) will be over estimated in the polls.

if this is true then Orthodox Jews will be underestimated in the polls.

I don't know how/if pollsters account for this, but this topic is starting to be very frustrating for me for reasons I've stated several times.  It doesn't seem like you're interested in approaching this methodically.

As far as I can tell I already proved that either the exit polls were wrong
either the NE was more for McCain or the rest of the country went more for Obama.

the area codes comment basically means this
if only trying to track the Jewish vote certain area codes and first 3 digit codes have more Jews then others.  thus lets say I would need to take a very high sample size from 718, but if I was doing the whole country (including non jews) as a whole I would take much less.  To prevent this from happening my question is do randomized numbers include a cap on how many from a specific area?


how would you prove it?

in regards to phone polls there are plenty of reasons that would guarantee a underestimate in the polls by Orthodox Jews unless there are some weights in place to counteract it.

there is some proof that Orthodox Jews respond much less than their numbers to the pollsters
see page 25 (and they underestimated the % of Orthodox Jews in the country anyway)
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_Values_Survey_2012_Frequencies.pdf.
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« Reply #91 on: August 19, 2012, 03:35:05 am »
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As far as I can tell I already proved that either the exit polls were wrong
either the NE was more for McCain or the rest of the country went more for Obama.

no, you found a highly intuitive hypothesis for why they might be wrong.  "Proving" it would require substantiating your hypothesis and proving that variables that might make the non-Orthodox NE Jewry substantially more liberal than it is in the West are untrue.

I'm really not trying to be a pedant...but you don't "prove" anything by throwing out hypotheses blindly and then throwing out some data blindly.  The fact that I think your hypothesis is almost certainly true doesn't mean your methodology hasn't been cray-cray.

the area codes comment basically means this
if only trying to track the Jewish vote certain area codes and first 3 digit codes have more Jews then others.  thus lets say I would need to take a very high sample size from 718, but if I was doing the whole country (including non jews) as a whole I would take much less.  To prevent this from happening my question is do randomized numbers include a cap on how many from a specific area?

The polls I'm referencing don't specifically seek out Jews.  They are national polls that, over time, happen to have enough respondents (thousands and thousands) that even proportionally small sub-samples (like Jews) gain hundreds of respondents, and can be reported.  Their sampling is normal for a randomized national poll.

Your area code point is still confusing me.  Are you saying that, if you were specifically looking for Jewish responses, you might limit your poll to Jew-heavy area codes?  None of the polls I'm doing do this.  They also wouldn't, because a representative sample of Jews must be equally likely to sample a Jew in New York as a Jew in Utah.  If the two aren't equally likely to be sampled, the poll would not be of a representative sample.  However, I still feel like I'm missing your point, because capping respondents by area codes would be a pretty nonsensical solution to this problem.

how would you prove it?

Prove what, your hypothesis?  And which one?

in regards to phone polls there are plenty of reasons that would guarantee a underestimate in the polls by Orthodox Jews unless there are some weights in place to counteract it.

Yes, but again, just stating this is not how science works -- at least not good science.

there is some proof that Orthodox Jews respond much less than their numbers to the pollsters
see page 25 (and they underestimated the % of Orthodox Jews in the country anyway)
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_Values_Survey_2012_Frequencies.pdf.

There's a good start!  You can even assume that Orthodox Jewish response in other surveys is comparably lower (although an MoE would apply) and re-weight accordingly.  Something.  Just something with numbers.  That's all I'm saying -- you can do this objectively, and that's better than just throwing around hypotheses.

Also (I'd check but I have to sleep) not entirely clear on why the parameter sample is assumed to be the true Orthodox percent (although 8% does seem more realistic.)

Pretty impressive that, even in the weighted sample, the same-sex marriage approval numbers come out 81%-18%.
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« Reply #92 on: August 19, 2012, 06:48:32 am »
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the area codes comment basically means this
if only trying to track the Jewish vote certain area codes and first 3 digit codes have more Jews then others.  thus lets say I would need to take a very high sample size from 718, but if I was doing the whole country (including non jews) as a whole I would take much less.  To prevent this from happening my question is do randomized numbers include a cap on how many from a specific area?

The polls I'm referencing don't specifically seek out Jews.  They are national polls that, over time, happen to have enough respondents (thousands and thousands) that even proportionally small sub-samples (like Jews) gain hundreds of respondents, and can be reported.  Their sampling is normal for a randomized national poll.

Your area code point is still confusing me.  Are you saying that, if you were specifically looking for Jewish responses, you might limit your poll to Jew-heavy area codes?  None of the polls I'm doing do this.  They also wouldn't, because a representative sample of Jews must be equally likely to sample a Jew in New York as a Jew in Utah.  If the two aren't equally likely to be sampled, the poll would not be of a representative sample.  However, I still feel like I'm missing your point, because capping respondents by area codes would be a pretty nonsensical solution to this problem.

My basic point is that the only way to poll all jews accurately in a national poll would be to have a high sample from NY state.  Which would not happen in a National poll when trying to also poll the whole country accurately.  Thus the likelihood of underestimating NY's Jewish vote in these polls.



there is some proof that Orthodox Jews respond much less than their numbers to the pollsters
see page 25 (and they underestimated the % of Orthodox Jews in the country anyway)
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_Values_Survey_2012_Frequencies.pdf.

There's a good start!  You can even assume that Orthodox Jewish response in other surveys is comparably lower (although an MoE would apply) and re-weight accordingly.  Something.  Just something with numbers.  That's all I'm saying -- you can do this objectively, and that's better than just throwing around hypotheses.

Also (I'd check but I have to sleep) not entirely clear on why the parameter sample is assumed to be the true Orthodox percent (although 8% does seem more realistic.)

Pretty impressive that, even in the weighted sample, the same-sex marriage approval numbers come out 81%-18%.
[/quote]
There is no estimate in recent years that places the Orthodox % at 8%  so assuming there is any basis to this they may be trying to guess the turnout rate.

Also I'm almost 100% sure Orthodox Jews who are more to the right would answer the polls less.
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« Reply #93 on: August 20, 2012, 03:08:36 pm »
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My basic point is that the only way to poll all jews accurately in a national poll would be to have a high sample from NY state.  Which would not happen in a National poll when trying to also poll the whole country accurately.  Thus the likelihood of underestimating NY's Jewish vote in these polls.

That's incorrect.  A national poll randomly samples people from all across the country.  It would take a while to get a statistically useful sample size of Jews, and that sample size would disproportionately be from New York, but that would not require oversampling New York.  That would, as you point out, make your sample of Jews non-representative.  It also makes no sense for a national pollster who isn't trying to find Jews, but rather finds a healthy subsample because they conduct so many interviews.  Got it?

There is no estimate in recent years that places the Orthodox % at 8%  so assuming there is any basis to this they may be trying to guess the turnout rate.

Right, which makes me wonder where the 8% comes from, if not a phone poll.

Also I'm almost 100% sure Orthodox Jews who are more to the right would answer the polls less.

Again, hypotheses like these are fine and seem intuitive enough, but there's no reason not to do legwork in trying to prove this in some way.  You're kind of making me work to test your hypothesis when you should be doing it.
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« Reply #94 on: August 20, 2012, 06:33:34 pm »
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As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.
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« Reply #95 on: August 23, 2012, 08:30:24 am »
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As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.
Brookline 82.3% for Obama
Newton 76.4% for Obama

It's not just NY state it's also in NJ
some Heavily Jewish areas in NJ went for McCain.

I see no proof that overall the non Orthodox, Russian vote outside of the NE is MORE liberal than in it.

keep in mind the bay area is in the west and was almost guaranteed to be Obama's best area amongst Jews in the country.
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« Reply #96 on: August 25, 2012, 07:09:47 pm »
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As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.
Brookline 82.3% for Obama
Newton 76.4% for Obama

It's not just NY state it's also in NJ
some Heavily Jewish areas in NJ went for McCain.

I see no proof that overall the non Orthodox, Russian vote outside of the NE is MORE liberal than in it.

keep in mind the bay area is in the west and was almost guaranteed to be Obama's best area amongst Jews in the country.


The McCain votes in those towns were not coming from the Jewish residents.
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« Reply #97 on: August 25, 2012, 09:56:04 pm »
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As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.
Brookline 82.3% for Obama
Newton 76.4% for Obama

It's not just NY state it's also in NJ
some Heavily Jewish areas in NJ went for McCain.

I see no proof that overall the non Orthodox, Russian vote outside of the NE is MORE liberal than in it.

keep in mind the bay area is in the west and was almost guaranteed to be Obama's best area amongst Jews in the country.


The McCain votes in those towns were not coming from the Jewish residents.
proof?

from what I can tell the non Jews in those areas are more liberal then the jews.
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« Reply #98 on: August 25, 2012, 10:15:18 pm »
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exactly what sort of rigorous study did you do to arrive at that conclusion?
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« Reply #99 on: August 25, 2012, 10:58:09 pm »
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This thread has been about 5% discussion of actual results and 95% discussion of wild-eyed guesses as to what they should be without any hard data to back up these feelings.  I'm locking the thread, but if someone has some actual hard data to post or discuss, PM me and I'll unlock it.
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