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Author Topic: NV-04: Tarkanian up by 6 over Horsford  (Read 744 times)
krazen1211
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« on: July 12, 2012, 11:00:23 am »
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http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2012/07/12/tarrancepoll.pdf


Tarkanian 47
Horsford 41



Wow! Heck and Amodei are likely to snooze to victory of course, and Romney is certainly poised to compete in Nevada with this performance in the 4th Congressional district.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 11:02:15 am by krazen1211 »Logged
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2012, 12:53:49 pm »
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Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2012, 07:27:25 pm »
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Quote from: MilesC56 on July 12, 2012, 12:53:49 pm
Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...
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Quote from: Big Wiggly Style on April 13, 2013, 08:47:37 am
oh Vosem, you poor boy...

Quote from: Vosem on January 12, 2013, 05:05:23 pm
Economic score: +4.84
Social score: -6.52

At this rate, I'll lean left economically within a year or so Tongue
Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2012, 06:11:40 am »
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If there was ever a district that would be susceptible to a hispanic democratic underpolling, it would be this district for obvious reasons.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!
krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2012, 04:13:25 pm »
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Quote from: Vosem on July 12, 2012, 07:27:25 pm
Quote from: MilesC56 on July 12, 2012, 12:53:49 pm
Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...

Brian Sandoval and George W. Bush, to name a couple, were successful in winning this district.
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MilesC56
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2012, 06:18:01 pm »
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Quote from: krazen1211 on July 13, 2012, 04:13:25 pm
Quote from: Vosem on July 12, 2012, 07:27:25 pm
Quote from: MilesC56 on July 12, 2012, 12:53:49 pm
Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...

Brian Sandoval and George W. Bush, to name a couple, were successful in winning this district.

Harry Reid also carried it and I'm guessing Kate Marshall, Ross Miller and Catherine Cortez Masto would have as well, to name a few others.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2012, 10:55:36 am »
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http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.
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brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2012, 11:21:37 am »
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POS poll (R)

Quote from: krazen1211 on August 20, 2012, 10:55:36 am
http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2012, 11:39:34 am »
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Quote from: brittain33 on August 20, 2012, 11:21:37 am
POS poll (R)

Quote from: krazen1211 on August 20, 2012, 10:55:36 am
http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.

Yes, at a guess the best cherry picked day of a multi day poll. But Horsford seems a bit lazy in fundraising.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2012, 07:40:14 pm »
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Tarrance Group (R) + Democrats underpoll in NV = Toss-up to Lean Dem race.
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My evolution:
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13
MilesC56
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2012, 08:35:42 pm »
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Quote from: JulioMadrid on August 20, 2012, 07:40:14 pm
Tarrance Group (R) + Democrats underpoll in NV = Toss-up to Lean Dem race.

Tarkanian also has better name recognition.
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