Romney ahead in NC

[Ben Romney]

North Carolina

2012 President
49% Romney (R), 48% Obama (D)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/PNA_NC_0712b.pdf

[Reaganfan]

Thread title is misleading. That's a damn near tie.

I really hope that we're not awake at 3am awaiting precincts from NC.

[Brittain33]

I think Project New America is (D).

If we're up at 3 AM counting precincts in NC, Virginia and the election have already been called for Obama...

[Vern]

Not true, we don't know what will happen on election night, you can't predict the unpredictable.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Not true, we don't know what will happen on election night, you can't predict the unpredictable.

     Some events are more likely than others. Any event where the outcome of the election hinges on the result of North Carolina is unlikely to occur.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While not probable, the following map shows two reasonable scenarios for it to come down to North Carolina.

Colorado is in grey because North Carolina would still be the deciding State under this map no matter if it goes Romney or Obama.  The only difference is that if Obama gets Colorado but loses North Carolina we get a 269-269 tie that Romney wins in the House and the outcome of the Senate races determines in Biden gets four more years or not (probably not, but not certainly not).

[MorningInAmerica]

While not probable, the following map shows two reasonable scenarios for it to come down to North Carolina.

I actually find your map quite probable.

[NHI]

While not probable, the following map shows two reasonable scenarios for it to come down to North Carolina.

I actually find your map quite probable.

I could see this map happening.

[RJ]

While not probable, the following map shows two reasonable scenarios for it to come down to North Carolina.

I actually find your map quite probable.

I could see this map happening.

I'll ask: Ohio and Wisconsin going Republican before North Carolina or perhaps Colorado?

I do think this poll no matter how it was conducted could be accurate, or at least have an accurate result...

[Vern]

In 2008 people said IN would never vote democratic while MO voted Republican, and look at the results

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While not probable, the following map shows two reasonable scenarios for it to come down to North Carolina.

I actually find your map quite probable.

I could see this map happening.

I'll ask: Ohio and Wisconsin going Republican before North Carolina or perhaps Colorado?

Ohio easily.  Wisconsin, not likely, but it's possible.

[5280]

If Colorado is toss-up until November, Im gonna have to go out of my way to get undecided people to vote for Romney.  This is getting ridiculous.

[Alcon]

In 2008 people said IN would never vote democratic while MO voted Republican, and look at the results

And those people were ignoring the empirical evidence out of Indiana and Missouri, which showed them within a few points of each other.  That is not true of, say, North Carolina and Wisconsin.  It's possible, but it's not a remotely probable event.  FiveThirtyEight gives North Carolina a 0.5% chance of being the tipping point, below Oregon and (somewhat bizarrely) New Jersey.  It's just to Republican versus national average, and we have lots of polls to indicate so.