PEW: Obama leads Romney

[Ben Romney]

Obama/Romney: 50/43

http://www.people-press.org/2012/07/12/obama-holds-lead-romney-trails-on-most-issues/

[MorningInAmerica]

Jay Cost with the Weekly Standard had this to say about the Pew poll sample:

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[tmthforu94]

Nope

[President von Cat]

Jay Cost with the Weekly Standard had this to say about the Pew poll sample:

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Is it really THAT implausible? Given that a lot of GOPers are old, there's a decent chance that a fair chunk that voted for McCain in 2008 have since died. I guess of course that 2008 was an anomaly because of Obama's cross-over appeal. But I would think turnout numbers like 2008 are going to become the rule rather than the exception, as more old Republicans pass away.

BTW Jay Cost is a huuuge asshat.

[Supersonic]

Jay Cost with the Weekly Standard had this to say about the Pew poll sample:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is it really THAT implausible? Given that a lot of GOPers are old, there's a decent chance that a fair chunk that voted for McCain in 2008 have since died. I guess of course that 2008 was an anomaly because of Obama's cross-over appeal. But I would think turnout numbers like 2008 are going to become the rule rather than the exception, as more old Republicans pass away.

BTW Jay Cost is a huuuge asshat.

Following that reasoning the GOP will just disappear as its supporters die off, I highly doubt that will happen, but I do agree that the 2008 figure is an anomaly. Republican turnout will more likely than not be around the 35% mark this time around.

[MorningInAmerica]

there's a decent chance that a fair chunk that voted for McCain in 2008 have since died.

This is silly. You're completely discounting the fair number of swing voters in this country that switch parties from year to year depending on circumstances. Years of +8% unemployment, and 80K jobs last month can do that.

[krazen1211]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

[pbrower2a]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

The Democrats make their biggest gains in the last three months before Presidential elections.

Republicans may be gaining rapidly in much of the South, but at this stage that simply runs up the score in victories in places.  Winning 70-30 means the same as winning 53-47.   

[Vosem]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

The Democrats make their biggest gains in the last three months before Presidential elections.

Republicans may be gaining rapidly in much of the South, but at this stage that simply runs up the score in victories in places.  Winning 70-30 means the same as winning 53-47.   

But most Republican gains have been in the Midwest, not the South...

[krazen1211]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

The Democrats make their biggest gains in the last three months before Presidential elections.

Republicans may be gaining rapidly in much of the South, but at this stage that simply runs up the score in victories in places.  Winning 70-30 means the same as winning 53-47.   

That line does not coincide with the 2004-2008 cycle.

[pbrower2a]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

The Democrats make their biggest gains in the last three months before Presidential elections.

Republicans may be gaining rapidly in much of the South, but at this stage that simply runs up the score in victories in places.  Winning 70-30 means the same as winning 53-47.   

But most Republican gains have been in the Midwest, not the South...

They usually vanish in the Midwest as the unions begin their get-out-the-vote campaigns.

Some of the R gains reflect President Obama overperforming in a bunch of states in 2008 and hitting the plexiglass. Such happens.

[Vosem]

The GOP has been gaining on partisan registration over the Democrats. Yes, if you stack your electorate, the Dems will win. who knew?

The Democrats make their biggest gains in the last three months before Presidential elections.

Republicans may be gaining rapidly in much of the South, but at this stage that simply runs up the score in victories in places.  Winning 70-30 means the same as winning 53-47.   

But most Republican gains have been in the Midwest, not the South...

They usually vanish in the Midwest as the unions begin their get-out-the-vote campaigns.

Some of the R gains reflect President Obama overperforming in a bunch of states in 2008 and hitting the plexiglass. Such happens.

Not anymore, pbrower. Unions have been weakening quite a lot recently -- take a look at how they put all their effort into the Wisconsin recalls and how effortlessly the Republicans swatted them aside.

Unions will help Obama, but it will be merely at the margins.