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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  A New Day: 2004 And On
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Author Topic: A New Day: 2004 And On  (Read 6680 times)
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olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: July 17, 2012, 01:39:18 pm »
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Dean/Daschle map
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #26 on: July 17, 2012, 02:24:23 pm »
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[color=navy][i][b]The President-Elect announced his Cabinet picks in mid-December. And there were a few surprises in there, in that almost half of them were republicans. GOP attacked the picks as attempting to get rid of competition for 2008. But the public sided with Dean and saw them as bi-partisan by a margin of 54-41.[/b][/i][/color]
Cabinet of Howard Dean
President of the United States: Howard Dean (D)
Vice President of the United States: Mark Warner (D)
Secretary of State: John Kerry (D)
Secretary of the Treasury: Warren Buffett (I)
Secretary of Defense: John McCain (R)
Attorney General: John Edwards (D)
Secretary of the Interior: Bill Owens (R)
Secretary of Agriculture: Debbie Stabenow (D)
Secretary of Labor: Paul Krugman (I)
Secretary of Commerce: Mitt Romney (R)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Barbera Mikulski (D)
Secretary of Transportation: Jimmy Duncan (R)
Secretary of Energy: Jeff Bingaman (D)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Tom Daschle (D)
Secretary of Education: Jeb Bush (R)
Secretary of Veteran's Affairs: Max Cleland (D)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Rudy Giuliani (R)
Chief of Staff To the President: Joe Trippi


The most surprising of all was the choice of Florida Governor Jeb Bush for Secretary of Education. Bush, the brother of George W. Bush whom Dean had defeated for the Presidency, had this to say a his Senate confirmation hearing.

"When the President calls on you to serve, you serve. Education reform is very dear to me. My brother made great strides and accomplished a lot in his term on this front, and I'm gonna make sure even more is done for the good of the future of this country."- Florida Governor and Education Secretary Nominee Jeb Bush



« Last Edit: July 17, 2012, 08:28:29 pm by Clinton1996 »Logged

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« Reply #27 on: July 17, 2012, 06:51:01 pm »
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With that cabinet, Dean approvals should skyrocket. I disapprove of Romney and Bush being there... However, it's a cabinet for the American people, not for the democrats... So, I suppose that's a good thing. I hope it happens in real life someday.
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« Reply #28 on: July 17, 2012, 09:09:23 pm »
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What were the Congressional results?
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #29 on: July 17, 2012, 09:14:58 pm »
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The Congressional Elections came with sharp gains for the Democrats. President Dean had large coattails. In the House of Representatives, for the first time in 10 years, the Democrats were in the Majority. And for the first time in US history, a woman would hold the Speaker's Gavel.
Nancy Pelosi, The 60th Speaker of The House of Representatives
House of Representatives
Democrats: +27, 232
Republicans: -27, 203
In the Senate though, the Democratic Leader, Tom Daschle, was narrowly defeated by John Thune. But the Democrats netted 10 seats, defeating GOP incumbents in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Iowa, while picking up open seats in Illinois, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado,Florida, and South Carolina. But with John McCain selected as Secretary of Defense, the Governor of Arizona, a Democrat, selected Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard to replace McCain in the Senate. Bringing the Democratic total to a net 11 seats.

Democrats: +11, 59
Republicans: -11, 41
The incoming majority leader would be Deleware Senior Senator Joe Biden, and as minority leader Tennesse Senator Bill Frist.
[

January 2005
And as President Dean's first act, he sent a bill to congress calling for withdrawal of US Troops. By New Years 2006. Republicans, outraged, vowed to filibuster. But one Republican crossed party lines to vote for withdrawal, Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chaffee just might have saved his chances of re-election in his blue state. The President's HOME Act, passed by a margin of 60-40.
Do you approve of the President Dean's decision to withdraw all troops from Iraq?
Yes- 52
No- 47
Don't Know/No Answer- 1

Do You approve of the job President Dean is doing?
Yes-66
No-23
Don't Know/No Answer-11




« Last Edit: July 18, 2012, 07:52:17 am by Clinton1996 »Logged

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« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2012, 12:08:43 am »
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Very good! Smiley

My only nitpick - Giffords wasn't elected to Congress until 2006, so I highly doubt she would have been chosen for the seat, considering she was a newly elected member of the state senate. Wink
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« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2012, 03:58:26 am »
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I thought John Kerry was the Secretary of State?
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« Reply #32 on: July 18, 2012, 09:09:30 am »
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Good, though I think you went a little overkill on the Dean victory, and his coattails.
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« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2012, 08:12:56 pm »
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I could see Bush loosing to Dean and perhaps by a comfortable margin, I say that as a Bush loyalist. I believe that in real life the Bush camp under estimated Howard Dean, Karl Rove thought Bush would defeat Dean in a 1980 type victory, I could not see that happening.
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the birth of modern america & onward timeline(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new)results of four most previous elections.....
election 1912
Underwood: 267 Cutchens: 264 Lafolette: 0 Debs: 0 266 to win
election 1916
Underwood (i): 224 Curtis: 254 Johnson: 53 266 to win
House Underwood (i): 26 Curtis: 12 Johnson: 10 25 to win
election 1920
Roosevelt: 260 Lowden: 271 McAdoo: 0 266 to win
election 1924
Thomas: 262 Lowden (i): 269 266 to win
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« Reply #34 on: July 19, 2012, 03:45:39 am »
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February 2005
President Dean called Republican Congressional Leaders to the White House for a conference on what they believed should be done about the economy at 7:00 am. The meeting lasted over three hours before Senate Minority Leader Grist came out for a Press Conference.


"The White House and my caucus have come to a bi-partisan agreement on tackling the issue of the economy. The plan, which we call the RECOVERY Act, uses a mix of half tax cuts to the middle class and increased spending on infrastructure projects and giving money to state governments to hire more teachers and first responders. The RECOVERY Act shall go to an immediate vote in the Senate."- Senator Bill Frist

"I don't know what President Dean did to get the GOP to support this bill, but I'm glad that Congress is working with the White House. Still though, he has a near super majority in the House, and only one vote away from a filibuster-proof senate. I think he's up to something, he's not expecting to keep those supermajorities in the midterms. He's getting on the GOP's good side." - Chris Matthews

The RECOVERY Act passed the Senate by a vote of 79 to 21. It's expected to easily pass in the House.
After the vote, the President called a Press Conference where he was expected to speak about the bill. But the President was did not speak, it was Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Daschle who made the announcement.


"As of today, there are tens of millions of Americans without Health Insurance. The US has the most expensive health care system of any modernized nation, but this administration intends to change that. Medicare is the most popular program in US history. And so, President Dean and I are sending a bill to the congress giving all Americans access to Medicare. And I say to both parties, get your asses in line and vote for this bill."- Secretary Tom Daschle

« Last Edit: July 19, 2012, 03:56:15 am by Clinton1996 »Logged

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« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2012, 06:01:11 am »
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April 2005
The debate went on for months with Republicans calling the bill "The Path to Europe" and "Socialized Medicine". There was a lot of doubt about how this bill, the Affordable Care Act (dubbed DeanCare by the GOP), would pass the Senate without Republican votes. Moderate Dems were also on the fence about passing it too. And the public also seemed torn on the bill also.
Gallup Poll
Do You Support President Dean's Affordable Care Act?

Yes- 36
No- 43
Don't Know- 23
Seeing that the work of his life might fail, President Dean set out on a nationwide tour targeting the home states of moderate Republicans and Democrats explaining the bill to Americans and calling for them to call their Congressmen and Senators and make them "Pass This Bill". He was joined by Massachussetts Senator Ted Kennedy and Secretary Tom Daschle. The government also blanketed the airwaves with ads promoting DeanCare also.

"My colleagues across the isle like to call this bill "socialism". Is your Medicare socialism? All this bill does os open up Medicare to you and your families. So instead of paying huge corporations tens of thousands of dollars for crap insurance, you will only pay what is already payed for Medicare, except you get benefits immediately. Sounds great doesn't it? Now call your Congressmen and Senators and tell them to pass this bill! There are millions of our fellow Americans without insurance. We can't wait!"- President Howard Dean

"These Republicans don't care about you or your health care. We have the most expensive insurance with the lowest return rate of any modern country. We need to change that. Tell my colleagues to pass this bill immediately!"- Senator Ted Kennedy

"46 million. Let that sink in. 46 million of us are uninsured. 46 million men, woman, children. But Republicans don't think it matters. They say that the free market will take care of them. Now I believe in the free market. But that's what we've relayed on to insure ourselves since World War II. Every President since Harry Truman has been trying to insure America. But the Republicans always say, "The free market will take care of it.". Well, we've tried that. And every year, the number grows, and now it sits at 46 million. Tell them to pass this bill!"- Secretary Tom Daschle

And it seemed to be working. Now, according to a new Gallup Poll, a majority of Americans now supported the Affordable Care Act.
Gallup Poll
Do You Support President Dean's Affordable Care Act?

Yes- 56
No- 33
Don't Know- 11
And the calls seemed to be working, the moderate Democrats of the south and Midwest were solidifying their support of the bill, and moderate northeastern Republicans began voicing  their support also. Maine Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, along with Vermont Independent Senator Jim Jeffords announced they would vote for it. And so, on May 2nd, Illinois Senator Barack Obama co-sponsored the bill along with Xavier Becerra, and it was brought to the floor for a vote in the House and Senate.

May 2005

Senate Vote on the Obama-Becerra Affordable Care Act
Yay- 62
Nay- 38

Hiuse Vote on the Obama-Becerra Affordable Care Act
Yay- 227
Nay- 208

The Affordable Care Act passed, and would be signed immediately. Speaker Pelosi would personally carry the bill to the White House.

Presidential approval rose to a new high for Dean.

Do You approve of the job President Dean is doing?
Yes-73
No-20
Don't Know/No Answer-7

August 2005
Unemployment Drops To 7.2 Percent
After the bill signing, Dean would have an economic briefing by Secretary of Treasury Warren Buffet, Secretary of Labor Paul Krugman, and Secretary of Commerce Mitt Romney. Krugman warned of an impending housing and financial crisis. The recommendation of Secretaries Romney and Buffet that new regulations should be instated protecting the economy from dangerous bets by Wall Street. Buffet believed that Glass-Steagal should be reinstated, but outdated regulation should be cut so as to gain GOP support. The bill, Dodd-Frank, would pass with near unanimous support, but celebration was short lived, as meteorologists forecast a powerful Hurricane would hit New Orleans.

Dean immediately mobilized FEMA and the National Guard to New Orleans to make sure an evacuation plan was carried out and to strengthen the levies. When Katrina hit, minimal damage was done as the levies held, and most of the people would be evacuated safely. Presidential approval would stay steady.

Do You approve of the job President Dean is doing?
Yes-68
No-21
Don't Know/No Answer-11

Dean's first year in power had been a relatively good one. He had passed universal health care, new financial regulations, and had protected New Orleans from a disastrous hurricane. But the new year was an election year, and the fun had only begun.

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« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2012, 02:54:47 pm »
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Great timeline! I wonder who Dean will have replace Chief Justice Rehnquist when he dies and/if other justices retire such as Sandra Day O'Connor (who might not want to with Dean as President instead of Bush), David Souter or John Stevens (they both might retire early because Dean is the President). 
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« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2012, 03:31:39 pm »
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"With the sad death of Chief Justice Rehnquist, I would like to nominate a good friend of mine, and someone whom the American people can trust to follow the Constitution and apply it to modern times. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, Senator ahillary Rodham Clinton."- President Howard Dean[/b]


Hillary Clinton had bet that President Dean would serve 8 years in the White House, and by the time 2012 came around, she'd be 64, running against younger blood in the party. And it would be even harder to win after the Dems had already served 8 years in the White House, no matter how popular the incumbent was. Al had learned that back in 2000.  And so her presidential ambitions died. She'd happily accepted the SCOTUS nomination and her confirmation went by easily in th Senate. She would be the first female Chief Justice and lead the first majority liberal court since the Warren Era.
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2012, 08:18:52 pm »
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I like this TL, but it's a bit wankish, particularly the public support going from 36-59% after a speech or two, and that Congressional Reps voted for it.  (Not to mention the election results.)

I'm guilty of being biased myself in TLs, but this a bit much.  Other than that, very good.
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Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #39 on: July 25, 2012, 08:36:07 pm »
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I like this TL, but it's a bit wankish, particularly the public support going from 36-59% after a speech or two, and that Congressional Reps voted for it.  (Not to mention the election results.)

I'm guilty of being biased myself in TLs, but this a bit much.  Other than that, very good.
They were campaigning on the bill for about a month. Only three reps, and they were all New England moderates, voted for it. In the house, a few Dems voted against the bill. I'm trying not to be hackish, but I'm giving the Democrats their ideal liberal President. Kinda in the mold of the GOPs "Reagan Wet Dream." So that 30 years from this now, Democratic Candidates could say Howard Dean 50 times a day, like Republicans do with Ronald Reagan. The election was what an Obama landslide would have looked like had southern whites embraced him. There was a bit of closet racism in 2008. VP Nominee Mark Warner helped a lot in the south. Dean won all the Obama states from 2008, plus 3 states he lost narrowly(Montana,Missouri, Georgia). Arizona would have gone Obama if not for favorite-son John McCain.
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« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2012, 10:14:54 pm »
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Sort of have to agree this is a bit wankish. It's worth the read, but it's hard for me to get past Howard Dean performing better than Kerry, much less performing nearly 10 points better than Kerry, given his past temperament and campaign style. 
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #41 on: July 26, 2012, 12:19:23 pm »
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2006 Midterms
Despite President Dean's popularity, the Democrats picked up only a two Senate seats, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, who won modest elections in their states, both defeating incumbents. They barely padded their majority.

Democrats:+2, 61
Republicans:-2, 39
Incoming Majority Leader- Joe Biden (D) Delaware
Incoming Minority Leader- Mith McConnell (R) Kentucky

But in the House, there was a different story. The American people did not like one party controlling both branches of Government, and sent Speaker Pelosi packing up her office. The Republicans gained back their majority.

Incoming Speaker of The House of Representatives
Democrats: -16, 216
Republicans: +16, 219
Incoming Majority Leader- Roy Blunt (R) Missouri
Incoming Minority Leader- Xavier Becerra (D) California
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« Reply #42 on: July 26, 2012, 03:28:33 pm »
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...
I really doubt Chafee would've been defeated with a Democratic President and near-supermajority.
Maybe swap Rhode Island out for Pennsylvania or Virginia.
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« Reply #43 on: July 26, 2012, 04:22:09 pm »
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...
I really doubt Chafee would've been defeated with a Democratic President and near-supermajority.
Maybe swap Rhode Island out for Pennsylvania or Virginia.
The Republican Primary Fight with Steve Laffey alienated a lot of voters and Chafee spent more money than anticipated to win the primary.
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« Reply #44 on: July 26, 2012, 07:18:48 pm »
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...
I really doubt Chafee would've been defeated with a Democratic President and near-supermajority.
Maybe swap Rhode Island out for Pennsylvania or Virginia.
The Republican Primary Fight with Steve Laffey alienated a lot of voters and Chafee spent more money than anticipated to win the primary.

Sad face bc no Michael Steele Wink
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FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #45 on: July 27, 2012, 07:30:05 pm »
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After the 2006 midterms, people turned their attention towards the 2008 Presidential Election, and what Republican would challenge President Dean. By September of 2007, the field was set.
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Texas Congressman Ron Paul

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback

Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson

Frmr. Secretary of Commerce Mitt Romney

But President Dean had thought ahead to his re-election when he won in 2004. He took the liberty of picking the Republicans he had thought would most threaten his chances and put them in his cabinet, including Governor Mitt Romnye, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Governor Jeb Bush, and Governor Bill Owens.National public opinion polling showed that the race for the nomination was wide open.

Who Do You Support for the Republican Nomination?
Secretary Mitt Romney-17
Governor Mike Huckabee-16
Senator Sam Brownback- 9
Governor Tommy Thompson- 7
Congressman Ron Paul- 5
Undecided- 46

Who Do You Support in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses?
Secretary Mitt Romney-12
Governor Mike Huckabee-13
Senator Sam Brownback- 7
Governor Tommy Thompson- 13
Congressman Ron Paul- 7
Undecided- 48

Who Do You Support in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary?
Secretary Mitt Romney-16
Governor Mike Huckabee-8
Senator Sam Brownback- 4
Governor Tommy Thompson- 6
Congressman Ron Paul- 3
Undecided- 63

Presidential Approval was not as high as in months prior, but it was still above water.

Do You Approve of the Job that Howard Dean is Doing As President?
Approve-56
Disapprove-42
DK-2
The Great Primaries Had Begun.
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« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2012, 06:07:59 pm »
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Animosity toward President Dean was commonplace within the Republican Party. Their attacks on Dean's "overactive Government" had regained them a House Majority and now they had their eyes set on the big job. But the party didnt have an overrarching them for their candidate to run on. And more importantly,  they couldn't choose between the candidates. The consensus frontrunners were Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

"We can't continue to let Socialism corrupt our system. We've got Government interfering with our Health Care and a national debt in the trillions. We need to cut the spending and put Government back in it's place."- Governor Mike Huckabee

Social Conservatives loved Huckabee. But the establishment saw him as too far to the right to win independents.

"We need someone who understands the private sector and can get this economy really going. This President doesnt understand that its business that drives this country, not Government programs. Yes, there are some that say my work for the administration disqualiftys me to go against him. Well I didn't work for Howard Dean, I worked for my country."- Secretary Mitt Romney

Secretary Romney was hailed by the establishment as the candidate that could win independents, but the grassroots couldn't get past his work as Commerce Secretary and his past moderate views.
Both candidates performed the same way in head to head matchups with Dean. Despite his approval, he still held only slim leads against his potential opponents and couldn't break 50.

If the Presidential Election was held today, and the Republican Nominee was former Secretary of Commerce Mitt Romney, and the Democratic Nominee was President Howard Dean, for whom would you vote?
President Dean- 48
Secretary Romney- 46[/i][/center]

If the Presidential Election was held today, and the Republican Nominee was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and the Democratic Nominee was President Howard Dean, for whom would you vote?
President Dean- 48
Governor Huckabee- 45[/i]

Huckabee and Romney sparred in all the debates leading up to the Iowa Caucuses, neither of them able to break to of their national slumps and establishing a clear lead. But on the night of Iowa, all we're surprised by the results.

Republican Iowa Caucus Results
Congressman Ron Paul- 36
Governor Mike Huckabee- 21
Secretary Mitt Romney- 20
Governor Tommy Thompson- 9
Senator Sam Brownback- 12

"Iowa just made its choice. And it was liberty. Their tired of government getting in the way, and its obvious that it's time for a change. We've got the momentum, and we're going to use it"- Congressman Ron Paul

Governor Thompson dropped out and endorsed Secretary Romney while Senator Brownback endorsed Governor Huckabee, making it a three man race. And it would go on forever. All three candidates winning and losing.


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« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2012, 09:28:54 pm »
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Keep this going; I really like your timelines!
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« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2012, 10:13:38 pm »
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I don't think Paul would have the political base he had in 2008, none the less the kind he has had this year without a second Bush term. I don't know how he could of won Iowa in this scenario.
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« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2012, 10:50:39 pm »
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I don't think Paul would have the political base he had in 2008, none the less the kind he has had this year without a second Bush term. I don't know how he could of won Iowa in this scenario.
Let's just say his position on marijuana and government reverberated in the minds of young voters. And Huckabee and Romney split Republican votes, allowing Paul to sneak in a win. The media kinda made the mistake they made IRL on Iowa of 2004. Dean lead nationally but Kerry had been surging in Iowa and surprised many nationally.
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