Why is florida more R at the state level

[old timey villain]

Florida is a perennial swing state, but that appears to only be at the national level.

Despite the fact that the state is almost always a battleground in presidential elections, Republicans seem to have a distinct advantage at the state level.

Florida has had a Republican governor since 1998, it's house delegation is majority Republican, and the GOP controls both houses of the legislature by a wide margin. It looks like Bill Nelson is the only statewide, high profile Democrat, and he looks vulnerable.

So why is this? I can understand gerrymandering as part of the reason. But it doesn't make sense to me that a 50/50 state at the Presidential level is so dominated by Republicans at every other level. It is vote splitting or is the Florida GOP much more organized? Or is it something else?

[freepcrusher]

Florida is a perennial swing state, but that appears to only be at the national level.

Despite the fact that the state is almost always a battleground in presidential elections, Republicans seem to have a distinct advantage at the state level.

Florida has had a Republican governor since 1998, it's house delegation is majority Republican, and the GOP controls both houses of the legislature by a wide margin. It looks like Bill Nelson is the only statewide, high profile Democrat, and he looks vulnerable.

So why is this? I can understand gerrymandering as part of the reason. But it doesn't make sense to me that a 50/50 state at the Presidential level is so dominated by Republicans at every other level. It is vote splitting or is the Florida GOP much more organized? Or is it something else?

what's even more interesting is that Florida is a southern state where democrats usually run ahead of the national party.

[tpfkaw]

what's even more interesting is that Florida is a southern state where democrats usually run ahead of the national party.

The last time when a Democratic POTUS candidate did better in Florida than nationally was 1976, and before that 1956...

[Napoleon]

what's even more interesting is that Florida is a southern state where democrats usually run ahead of the national party.

The last time when a Democratic POTUS candidate did better in Florida than nationally was 1976, and before that 1956...

He means that in Southern states, Democrats typically do better at the state level than at the federal level and Florida bucks that trend. Now, one explanation could be minority turnout, in non-presidential years, but I think that ignores Republicans strength in the state legislature during presidential years.

[ajc0918]

Both the Florida Senate and the Florida House have drawn terrible republican gerrymanders. Most of the democrats represent heavy minority districts and even the new maps under the new laws are still republican maps.

Also because of this gerrymander the Republican Party of Florida raises millions more from special interests than thr Democrats who virtually have little influence in state legislation. This allows the RPOF to outspend the Florida Dems and manage a better GOTV campaign.

Democrats need a leader who can appeal to all fractions of the party. They need a better grassroots campaign and better voter turnout. Remember, Dems have about a 400k+ registration advantage yet republicans have super majorities in both chambers.

[hopper]

I don't know maybe more younger people in Florida come out to vote for the presidential elections alot more than they do for state level and mid-term congressional races. Plus Florida as everybody knows is a bastion for senior citizens or older people once they retire. The older electorate doesn't vote Dem like young people and minorities do.

[Donerail]

The reason is primarily history, particularly the days of the Solid South. Back in the days when the Republicans taking over Florida was unimaginable, unthinkable, party leaders focused more on internal divisions and power squabbles while the Republicans stayed organized. The Rs eventually managed to get a breakthrough and have gerrymandered themselves into power ever since.

[Dereich]

Well, in addition to minority turnout, one reason is that Democrats in the state are pretty much shut out of everything non-minority north of Orlando or Tampa. Not that the state party does anything to change that; the state Democratic party is more set up to fight national elections then local ones. What I mean is that they do much more preaching to the choir (cities dwellers, college students, the general left) then they do the still moderately southern swing voters. The kind of Democrat who can win at a state level here is someone like Bill Nelson; strong on military issues, less liberal and a bit of a southern twang NOT someone like DWS or Alan Grayson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the state Democrats do an awful job of appealing outside their base, and would need to move to the right to win locally.

Oh, and as for gerrymandering; Florida is a pretty well naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans, even a fair map would give a Republican advantage; and as I mentioned above the Democrats in the state are so dedicated to acting like a permanant minority party they probably will be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

[old timey villain]

Well, in addition to minority turnout, one reason is that Democrats in the state are pretty much shut out of everything non-minority north of Orlando or Tampa. Not that the state party does anything to change that; the state Democratic party is more set up to fight national elections then local ones. What I mean is that they do much more preaching to the choir (cities dwellers, college students, the general left) then they do the still moderately southern swing voters. The kind of Democrat who can win at a state level here is someone like Bill Nelson; strong on military issues, less liberal and a bit of a southern twang NOT someone like DWS or Alan Grayson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the state Democrats do an awful job of appealing outside their base, and would need to move to the right to win locally.

Oh, and as for gerrymandering; Florida is a pretty well naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans, even a fair map would give a Republican advantage; and as I mentioned above the Democrats in the state are so dedicated to acting like a permanant minority party they probably will be.

If there's enough of a Democratic base to win national elections, why can't they be mobilized to win statewide ones?

[Donerail]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

Appealing to Southern Florida is another problem. The Dems are stuck in the notion that they have to nominate moderate-conservatives to win statewide, so they spend money contesting all sorts of counties in the Panhandle and North Florida that they'll never win, counties McCain won by 15-20 points, where a 20-point swing in all of em would be equal to a 2-point swing in Miami-Dade alone, instead of focusing on GOTV in South Florida, Tampa Bay, and Orlando-Daytona. This is the best analysis I've seen so far.

[Dereich]

Well, in addition to minority turnout, one reason is that Democrats in the state are pretty much shut out of everything non-minority north of Orlando or Tampa. Not that the state party does anything to change that; the state Democratic party is more set up to fight national elections then local ones. What I mean is that they do much more preaching to the choir (cities dwellers, college students, the general left) then they do the still moderately southern swing voters. The kind of Democrat who can win at a state level here is someone like Bill Nelson; strong on military issues, less liberal and a bit of a southern twang NOT someone like DWS or Alan Grayson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the state Democrats do an awful job of appealing outside their base, and would need to move to the right to win locally.

Oh, and as for gerrymandering; Florida is a pretty well naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans, even a fair map would give a Republican advantage; and as I mentioned above the Democrats in the state are so dedicated to acting like a permanant minority party they probably will be.

If there's enough of a Democratic base to win national elections, why can't they be mobilized to win statewide ones?

Because a national base and a state base are two different things. Its a bit like West Virginia in reverse.

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

Appealing to Southern Florida is another problem. The Dems are stuck in the notion that they have to nominate moderate-conservatives to win statewide, so they spend money contesting all sorts of counties in the Panhandle and North Florida that they'll never win, counties McCain won by 15-20 points, where a 20-point swing in all of em would be equal to a 2-point swing in Miami-Dade alone, instead of focusing on GOTV in South Florida, Tampa Bay, and Orlando-Daytona. This is the best analysis I've seen so far.

Well, they do. Your article was right about the quality of the Democratic bench, but the fact remains that the parts of the electorate who would vote for all and any Democrat don't vote as much in the midterm elections that really matter for state politics. I'd say the Dems don't really have much ability to grow in Miami-Dade, I mean they pretty much depend on it as a crutch already. The Tampa to Orlando area is of course key, but everyone has always known that. And the panhandle will definately still support a blue dog, Alan Boyd was still winning with big margins until the wave. Thinking about it a bit more, one of the big troubles for the state party is that their constituancies are even more divided then normal. Its hard to craft a solitary message to appeal to blacks, Cubans, other hispanics, blue dog supporters, and cosmopolitan liberals. The party spends so much of its time trying to hold itself together and form a united front with hardly any widely appealing candidates, its not surprising that they can't get off the ground.

Also, I personally am a pretty big fan of Sink; I think she's the only Democratic candidate for Goveror I'd vote for over Scott.

[Donerail]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

Appealing to Southern Florida is another problem. The Dems are stuck in the notion that they have to nominate moderate-conservatives to win statewide, so they spend money contesting all sorts of counties in the Panhandle and North Florida that they'll never win, counties McCain won by 15-20 points, where a 20-point swing in all of em would be equal to a 2-point swing in Miami-Dade alone, instead of focusing on GOTV in South Florida, Tampa Bay, and Orlando-Daytona. This is the best analysis I've seen so far.

Well, they do. Your article was right about the quality of the Democratic bench, but the fact remains that the parts of the electorate who would vote for all and any Democrat don't vote as much in the midterm elections that really matter for state politics. I'd say the Dems don't really have much ability to grow in Miami-Dade, I mean they pretty much depend on it as a crutch already. The Tampa to Orlando area is of course key, but everyone has always known that. And the panhandle will definately still support a blue dog, Alan Boyd was still winning with big margins until the wave. Thinking about it a bit more, one of the big troubles for the state party is that their constituancies are even more divided then normal. Its hard to craft a solitary message to appeal to blacks, Cubans, other hispanics, blue dog supporters, and cosmopolitan liberals. The party spends so much of its time trying to hold itself together and form a united front with hardly any widely appealing candidates, its not surprising that they can't get off the ground.

Also, I personally am a pretty big fan of Sink; I think she's the only Democratic candidate for Goveror I'd vote for over Scott.

Dems don't need to grow in Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach, they just need to actually spend money there and do GOTV to up the atrocious voter turnout for Dems in those areas. The Panhandle may be willing to go for a Blue Dog, but South Florida won't turn out for a Blue Dog like they will for a Grayson or Wasserman-Schultz, and South Florida turnout>Panhandle voters. The issue is really they're trying too hard to appeal to those different groups that you get bland centrists like Sink instead of somebody who actually stands for something, and voters pick the guys who stand for something even if it's absolutely nutty over the moderate hero who doesn't stand for anything at all (2010 governor's race, for example).

I personally think Sink is a rather inept campaigner and that the Dems need Graham or Nelson (or Charlie) to take back the Governor's office, but I'd vote for Sink (or Nan Rich or Rod Smith or whoever) over .

[Dereich]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

Appealing to Southern Florida is another problem. The Dems are stuck in the notion that they have to nominate moderate-conservatives to win statewide, so they spend money contesting all sorts of counties in the Panhandle and North Florida that they'll never win, counties McCain won by 15-20 points, where a 20-point swing in all of em would be equal to a 2-point swing in Miami-Dade alone, instead of focusing on GOTV in South Florida, Tampa Bay, and Orlando-Daytona. This is the best analysis I've seen so far.

Well, they do. Your article was right about the quality of the Democratic bench, but the fact remains that the parts of the electorate who would vote for all and any Democrat don't vote as much in the midterm elections that really matter for state politics. I'd say the Dems don't really have much ability to grow in Miami-Dade, I mean they pretty much depend on it as a crutch already. The Tampa to Orlando area is of course key, but everyone has always known that. And the panhandle will definately still support a blue dog, Alan Boyd was still winning with big margins until the wave. Thinking about it a bit more, one of the big troubles for the state party is that their constituancies are even more divided then normal. Its hard to craft a solitary message to appeal to blacks, Cubans, other hispanics, blue dog supporters, and cosmopolitan liberals. The party spends so much of its time trying to hold itself together and form a united front with hardly any widely appealing candidates, its not surprising that they can't get off the ground.

Also, I personally am a pretty big fan of Sink; I think she's the only Democratic candidate for Goveror I'd vote for over Scott.

Dems don't need to grow in Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach, they just need to actually spend money there and do GOTV to up the atrocious voter turnout for Dems in those areas. The Panhandle may be willing to go for a Blue Dog, but South Florida won't turn out for a Blue Dog like they will for a Grayson or Wasserman-Schultz, and South Florida turnout>Panhandle voters. The issue is really they're trying too hard to appeal to those different groups that you get bland centrists like Sink instead of somebody who actually stands for something, and voters pick the guys who stand for something even if it's absolutely nutty over the moderate hero who doesn't stand for anything at all (2010 governor's race, for example).

I personally think Sink is a rather inept campaigner and that the Dems need Graham or Nelson (or Charlie) to take back the Governor's office, but I'd vote for Sink (or Nan Rich or Rod Smith or whoever) over .

Crist is really the epitome of the candidate you most seem to dislike. And Scott's convictions aren't what saved him, but his money and the year he was running in were. If McCollum had won the primary the election would have been over, but Scott almost handed a mostly safe seat to the Democrats. Just look at the Miami-Dade results, every Republican going for a state office ran ahead of Scott. And what I'm saying more or less is that you can't get get many of those south Floridians out to vote for any office less than President, except in a blue moon; and 45% of those that do vote do so for the Republicans. And the fact that the Democratic Hispanic caucus is laughably pathetic just adds to their turnout problem. If the Democrats assembled a decent hispanic bench and managed to pry away some of the significant populations of Republican hispanics I'd really start to worry, but they're still too focused on black, jewish and elderly turnout for that to be a worry.

[Donerail]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could. The Democratic party in a lot of ways have nominated people like Sink who appeals to Southern Florida only.

Appealing to Southern Florida is another problem. The Dems are stuck in the notion that they have to nominate moderate-conservatives to win statewide, so they spend money contesting all sorts of counties in the Panhandle and North Florida that they'll never win, counties McCain won by 15-20 points, where a 20-point swing in all of em would be equal to a 2-point swing in Miami-Dade alone, instead of focusing on GOTV in South Florida, Tampa Bay, and Orlando-Daytona. This is the best analysis I've seen so far.

Well, they do. Your article was right about the quality of the Democratic bench, but the fact remains that the parts of the electorate who would vote for all and any Democrat don't vote as much in the midterm elections that really matter for state politics. I'd say the Dems don't really have much ability to grow in Miami-Dade, I mean they pretty much depend on it as a crutch already. The Tampa to Orlando area is of course key, but everyone has always known that. And the panhandle will definately still support a blue dog, Alan Boyd was still winning with big margins until the wave. Thinking about it a bit more, one of the big troubles for the state party is that their constituancies are even more divided then normal. Its hard to craft a solitary message to appeal to blacks, Cubans, other hispanics, blue dog supporters, and cosmopolitan liberals. The party spends so much of its time trying to hold itself together and form a united front with hardly any widely appealing candidates, its not surprising that they can't get off the ground.

Also, I personally am a pretty big fan of Sink; I think she's the only Democratic candidate for Goveror I'd vote for over Scott.

Dems don't need to grow in Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach, they just need to actually spend money there and do GOTV to up the atrocious voter turnout for Dems in those areas. The Panhandle may be willing to go for a Blue Dog, but South Florida won't turn out for a Blue Dog like they will for a Grayson or Wasserman-Schultz, and South Florida turnout>Panhandle voters. The issue is really they're trying too hard to appeal to those different groups that you get bland centrists like Sink instead of somebody who actually stands for something, and voters pick the guys who stand for something even if it's absolutely nutty over the moderate hero who doesn't stand for anything at all (2010 governor's race, for example).

I personally think Sink is a rather inept campaigner and that the Dems need Graham or Nelson (or Charlie) to take back the Governor's office, but I'd vote for Sink (or Nan Rich or Rod Smith or whoever) over .

Crist is really the epitome of the candidate you most seem to dislike. And Scott's convictions aren't what saved him, but his money and the year he was running in were. If McCollum had won the primary the election would have been over, but Scott almost handed a mostly safe seat to the Democrats. Just look at the Miami-Dade results, every Republican going for a state office ran ahead of Scott. And what I'm saying more or less is that you can't get get many of those south Floridians out to vote for any office less than President, except in a blue moon; and 45% of those that do vote do so for the Republicans. And the fact that the Democratic Hispanic caucus is laughably pathetic just adds to their turnout problem. If the Democrats assembled a decent hispanic bench and managed to pry away some of the significant populations of Republican hispanics I'd really start to worry, but they're still too focused on black, jewish and elderly turnout for that to be a worry.

Candidate I most seem to dislike? I'm from St. Petersburg, and I'm most interested in seeing Scott lose, and if there's one candidate who'll return to Tallahassee like MacArthur to the Philippines while completely dismantling Scott, it's Crist.

[Dereich]

When I said you wouldn't like Crist I was refering to

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And we all know that the only thing Charlie Crist stands for is Charlie Crist. But you're right about him being able to destroy Scott.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could.

Don't forget Claude Pepper.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could.

Don't forget Claude Pepper.

Or Jeb

[Donerail]

There hasn't been a good enough candidate that appeals to the Cuban and southern white community like Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham could.

Don't forget Claude Pepper.

Or Jeb

Jeb isn't a Democrat

[Dumbo]

At the local level it looks good for Democrats. Florida
has 18 cities with a population of 100.000 or more
and in 13 of these 18 cities the mayor is a member of
the Democratic party.

[Beet]

1) gerrymandering
2) they were very, very, very smart with who they decided to nominate and when

In 2006 when voters were ready to elect a Dem governor, the GOP nominated an uber-moderate. In 2010, when voters were angry at Obama, the GOP nominated a conservative. They nominated Hispanics at critical moments (2004, 2010) that denied Democrats' attempts to win Senate seats.

[old timey villain]

1) gerrymandering
2) they were very, very, very smart with who they decided to nominate and when

In 2006 when voters were ready to elect a Dem governor, the GOP nominated an uber-moderate. In 2010, when voters were angry at Obama, the GOP nominated a conservative. They nominated Hispanics at critical moments (2004, 2010) that denied Democrats' attempts to win Senate seats.

Pretty good explanation. Although I think Rick Scott would have been soundly defeated in any year but 2010. I see him having a very very tough fight in 2014.

The GOP will dominate the Florida legislature for the foreseeable future, but the state is due for a correction at the Gubernatorial level. What makes florida a swing state in a Presidential election will make it competitive for Governors races as well. I guess we'll just have to see what happens in 2 years.