For the GOP a simplified path to the White House in 2024?

[zorkpolitics]

For Romney to have won in 2012 he needed to have won VA, OH and FL, plus one other state (such as CO, IA, NH).  According to Sean Trende, after the 2020 census, and the projected reapportionment in 2020, that path simplifies to just FL, OH, VA.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/21/what_2012_population_estimates_could_mean_in_2020_116498.html

Of course given demographic changes even that "simplified" path will not be easy.....

[Beezer]

Population movements have been helping the GOP for some time now. Back in 04, if Kerry had won OH, he'd have won the presidency. If Obama had won the same states as Kerry along with OH, he'd have been a couple of electoral votes short. I had a look a while ago at the last 6 elections (92-12). States that are solid Republican (ie a GOP candidate won 5 to 6 elections there) have gained 12 seats/EVs since the 1990s while solid Democratic states (Dem candidate has won 5 to 6 times there) have lost 14 seats/EVs (NY, PA, IL, MI by themselves have lost 11 seats).

Still, looking at the 2012 election it's hard to get excited about this if you're a Republican since a lot of the growth in these areas stems from Hispanics and Northerners, not exactly two voting blocks that are solidly Republican.

[Northeast Lt. Speaker Spenstar]

What's been happening is twofold: One, blue states are losing seats/EVs to red states. Two, GOP states are becoming swing states and swing states are becoming Democratic states. CA had swing state status until 1992. Illinois too. It was a swing state and now it's firmly in the Democratic column. Florida went fron trending Republican by 4 points compared to the national average in 2008 to less than 2 points now. Virginia went from solid GOP to solid purple.

Shifting populations make it easier for Republicans to win by winning fewer states, but those states in turn become easier for Democrats to win. Bottom line: same people, different places.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

At least it gives us more interesting maps than in the past. Close elections will no longer have the Democrats all huddled in New England the Upper Great Lakes and Pacific Coast. Islands of red are beginning to rise out of Lake Reagan.

[Californian Tony]

Considering we're at the very beginning of an apportionment cycle, the fact that Democrats would already win under 2020 numbers is excellent news. Until reapportionment occurs, State trends are likely to only keep extending the Dems' advantage.

[Northeast Lt. Speaker Spenstar]

Considering we're at the very beginning of an apportionment cycle, the fact that Democrats would already win under 2020 numbers is excellent news. Until reapportionment occurs, State trends are likely to only keep extending the Dems' advantage.

This.