What will the "factor/difference" this year in Florida?

[sg0508]

Staying the obvious, if Mitt Romney doesn't win FL, the race is over.  There's not many other opportunities out there and the once GOP friendly map of the 80s is now more locked down by the democrats.  FL's 29 EVs are a must, but I'm far from convinced that the GOP is getting it back this time.

1) Elder voters still aren't going to support Romney
2) The Bain Capital/Top 1% label is going to haunt Mitt (I believe) until Nov
3) I don't get the sense that conservatives are that fired up to support him

FL's demographics make it difficult to predict, but what will be the trigger point this go around because Obama knows that if he wins FL, Election Night probably ends early.

Let me also say, that people vote for President and not Vice President and thus, a Rubio VP pick I do NOT believe will make any material difference.

[Zioneer]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

[sg0508]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

Gubernatorial issues typically don't reach a national level and thus, many states actually have the minority party in the statehouse.  That's another reason why I don't think WI is making any such switch in Nov. this year.  That won't be a factor.

[Emperor SJoyce]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

Gubernatorial issues typically don't reach a national level and thus, many states actually have the minority party in the statehouse.  That's another reason why I don't think WI is making any such switch in Nov. this year.  That won't be a factor.

Lord Voldemort can and will certainly drive people to Obama

[Zioneer]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

Gubernatorial issues typically don't reach a national level and thus, many states actually have the minority party in the statehouse.  That's another reason why I don't think WI is making any such switch in Nov. this year.  That won't be a factor.

Lord Voldemort can and will certainly drive people to Obama

Can I just say that I never get tired of that nickname for Rick Scott? He looks like Voldemort, and from his stances/policies on various things, he acts like Voldie as well.

[Senator Sbane]

Another factor could be that Rick Scott is absolutely hated in Florida (or so I here), and so people who dislike Rick Scott but who are conservative-leaning independents could be persuaded to vote for Obama.

Gubernatorial issues typically don't reach a national level and thus, many states actually have the minority party in the statehouse.  That's another reason why I don't think WI is making any such switch in Nov. this year.  That won't be a factor.

Lord Voldemort can and will certainly drive people to Obama

I doubt it will be that significant, maybe 0.5% at the most. If Florida is that close to begin with, Obama will have already won. I think Ohio is the knockout punch for the Republicans, not Florida.

[True Federalist]

While the following is a very low probability map, the following is a plausible map with Obama winning Florida but losing the election.



Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Granted, the chance of Obama winning Florida while Romney wins all those other states is probably around 1% or less, but this map is not impossible.

[mondale84]

While the following is a very low probability map, the following is a plausible map with Obama winning Florida but losing the election.



Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Granted, the chance of Obama winning Florida while Romney wins all those other states is probably around 1% or less, but this map is not impossible.

yeah no...

[Senator Sbane]

While the following is a very low probability map, the following is a plausible map with Obama winning Florida but losing the election.



Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Granted, the chance of Obama winning Florida while Romney wins all those other states is probably around 1% or less, but this map is not impossible.

It's almost impossible with Obama running though. That map is not likely but possible in a generic D vs generic R race but Obama being black and supposedly muslim hurts him with old blue dog dems and Israel supporters. This makes him a particularly weak candidate for Florida. If he doesn't get a good amount of swing voter support (which would also put him over the top in the other swing states), he will lose Florida.

[Senator Napoleon]

Trade Oregon for New Hampshire and the probability of that map goes from 0% to somewhere between 0% and 1%.