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Author Topic: Bush/Gore performance in post 2002 congressional Districts??  (Read 4771 times)
Ryan
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« on: November 18, 2003, 08:31:28 am »
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Hi everyone,
Dave has done an excellent job on Presidential election results by congressional district. Only thing is these are the OLD congressional districts (PRE-redisticting 2001/02)

Does anyone know where I can find the 2000 results by the NEW congressional districts or does anyone have this information word-processed??

I would much appreciate any info any one has. If anyone already has it in a file please mail me on ryanmasc2000@yahoo.co.in    Thanks

Ryan.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2003, 08:33:18 am by Ryan »Logged

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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2003, 09:37:21 am »
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Maine didn't redraw it's district lines until after the 2002 elections, so the 2002 CDs are the same as the 2000 CDs, but I will work through what the results of the 2000 Presidential election are for the 2004 CDs.

source: http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/2000g/gen00p-c.htm

(a) 2000 CD-1: Gore 176,293 (50.52%), Bush 148,618 (42.59%), Nader 20,297 (5.82%), Buchanan 1,994 (0.57%), Browne 1,479 (0.42%), Phillips 253 (0.07%), Other (write-ins) 17 (0.00%)

(b) 2000 CD-2: Gore 143,658 (47.43%), Bush 137,998 (45.56%), Nader 16,830 (5.56%), Buchanan 2,449 (0.81%), Browne 1,595 (0.53%), Phillips 326 (0.11%), Other 10 (0.00%)

(c) Towns switching from CD-1 to CD-2 for 2004 (Benton, Clinton, Fayette, Litchfield, Oakland, Waterville and Winslow): Gore 10,319, Bush, 6,975, Nader 930, Buchanan 147, Browne 82, Phillips 14, Other 0

(d) Towns switching from CD-2 to CD-1 for 2004 (Albion, China and Monmouth, plus Unity Township which isn't shown in the results - which could be a slight problem as I'll mention later): Bush 2,370, Gore 2,292, Nader 232, Buchanan 64, Browne 19, Phillips 6, Other 0

From these results, we can get the results for the 2003 CDs as follows:

2004 CD-1 (a - c + d): Gore 168,266 (50.15%), Bush 144,013 (42.93%), Nader 19,599 (5.84%), Buchanan 1,911 (0.57%), Browne 1,416 (0.42%), Phillips 245 (0.07%), Other 17 (0.01%)

2004 CD-2 (b + c - d): Gore 151,685 (47.95%), Bush 142,603 (45.08%), Nader 17,528 (5.54%), Buchanan 2,532 (0.80%), Browne 1,658 (0.52%), Phillips 334 (0.11%), Other 10 (0.00%)

With the changed boundaries, Gore's majority in the first district is less, but his margin over Bush in the second district is greater.  This makes since, since the area going from the first to the second district includes Waterville, a sizable municipality (by Maine standards) and a heavily Democratic one (although it recently elected a Republican mayor).  The area going the other way is smaller and probably leans Republican.  In the great scheme of things, things aren't changed much.

About Unity Township: Unity Township had 31 people as of the 2000 census, and I'm sure some of them vote regularly, but I've never seen results in any election from that township.  Citizens in Unity township must vote somewhere, but where?  The most logical places are Benton and Unity, although Unity is in a different county.  Unity Township has not been in the same congressional district as Benton since the 1993 reapportionment (they switched opposite ways this year), and it will not been in the same CD as its namesake town in the coming election.  The only town it borders that is in the same 2004 CD is Albion, which makes I think is unfortunate.  The only roads shown in Unity Township on Delorme's Maine atlas and Gazeteer are Route 139 from the Benton line to the Unity line and some unimproved roads off that and a road going from Benton to Albion through a small corner of the township (which is quite small itself).  I'm sure most of the township's population lives on or on a road of Route 139, so they would have to go to either Benton or Unity to get to Albion.  I doubt that is where residents of Unity Township vote, but the township is in the same census tract as Albion and no other town, and has been in the same county commissioner district as Albion since at least 1993, even when every other town bordering it was in a different district.  So maybe the township's residents do vote in Albion.  Unless they do, the results above are probably slightly inaccurate because they place Unity Township's votes in the wrong congressional district, but it wouldn't make much of a difference.

I may try to figure out the results for new CDs in some other states in the future, but I'm tired of writing for now.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
« Last Edit: September 08, 2004, 07:35:19 am by Kevinstat »Logged
Kevinstat
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2003, 05:51:17 pm »
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New Hampshire...

From the Almanac of American Politics 2004: "For 2002 the towns of Epsom and Pittsfield were moved from the 1st district to the 2d, an uncontroversial change that does not apprieciably change the political balance in either district."

data sources: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2000/pedata2000NH_CD.html and http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2000/pedata2000NH.html

2002 CD-1 (2000 CD-1 - Epsom - Pittsfield): Bush 140,295, Gore 131,218, Nader 10,718, Browne 1,313, Buchanan 1,227, Phillips 147

2002 CD-2 (2000 CD-2 + Epsom + Pittsfield): Gore 135,310, Bush 133,264, Nader 11,480, Browne 1,444, Buchanan 1,388, Phillips 181

I could only find miscelaneous write-in data (which I believe excludes write-in votes for candidates who were on the ballot, which are likely included in the collums for that candidate) by county in both this site and New Hampshire's Secretary of State's site (see http://www.state.nh.us/sos/general2000/sumpres.html ).  Since four counties are split between congressional districts, both in 2000 and in today, I cannot tell exactly how many miscelaneous write-in votes were cast in each district.  157 of the state's 1,276 miscelaneous write-in votes were cast in counties entirely within the first congressional district, while 251 such votes were cast in counties entirely within the second district.  868 miscelaneous write-in votes were cast in counties that were and are still split between the two districts.  Because of the uncertainty regarding these votes, I am not going to post percentage results.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
« Last Edit: November 18, 2003, 08:34:24 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2003, 09:09:27 pm »
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West Virginia (I know I'm doing the easy ones, but hey) -

2002/4 CD-1 (2000 CD-1 + Gilmer County): Bush 122,827, Gore 97,432, Nader 4,678, Buchanan 1,907, Browne 690, Hagelin 124, Phillips 12, other write-ins 0

2002/4 CD-2 (2000 CD-2 - Gilmer County - Nicholas County): Bush 118,839, Gore 96,524, Nader 3,378, Browne 661, Buchanan 631, Hagelin 117, Phillips 9, other write-ins 1

2002/4 CD-2 (2000 CD-3 + Nicholas County): Gore 101,541, Bush 94,809, Nader 2,624, Buchanan 631, Browne 561, Hagelin 126, Phillips 2, other write-ins 0

I'm not going to spend time calculating percentages.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2003, 10:55:59 pm »
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CHeck out

http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/latest.phtml

The National Committee for an Effective Congress has all the voting data from each Congressional district in 2000 and then converted to 2002 districts.  The data is arranged by state, I don't think they have a convieniet table of the data.
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2003, 09:21:46 pm »
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My Almanac of American Politics 2004 also has the 2000 Presidential election results for the new districts, but it groups several candidates as others and it can be fun to calculate data myself.  But zorkpolitics still makes a good point that there are less tedious ways to figure out the 2000 results for the new districts.
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Ryan
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2003, 08:06:02 am »
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LOL I like your way Kevin (tho heartfelt thanks to zork for the site Smiley )

This is a measure of how much of a political junkie I am ......I usually hate maths.......but calculating voting percentages.......yeah sure thing.............whats that? Wouldnt I want to eat chocolate ice-cream instead??....instead of calculating election results in 20 different ways???........hell NO :O why would someone prefer chocolate ice-cream to that??? ?  Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue
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Ryan
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2003, 08:08:07 am »
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and now that I'm done with the "atempted" hilarity does Kvein or anyone have the 2000 results by the NEW congressional districts in Mississippi???

Thanks,
Ryan
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2003, 12:01:19 pm »
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What new districts?              
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Ryan
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2003, 01:58:41 pm »
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The ones drawn to reflect the post 2000 reapportionment. I couldnt find the Bush-Gore percentages in each of the 4 surviving districts.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2003, 06:00:36 pm »
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I have them Ryan.

1st dist.  Bush 146,197(59%)
               Gore 98,350(40%)
2nd Dist. Bush 97,979(41%)
               Gore 134,513(57%)
3rd Dist. Bush 173,434(64%)
              Gore 93,454(35%)
4th Dist. Bush 154,997(65%)
              Gore 78,224(33%)
That's from the Almanac of American Politics if you need a source.
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Ryan
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2003, 04:36:16 pm »
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I have them Ryan.

1st dist.  Bush 146,197(59%)
               Gore 98,350(40%)
2nd Dist. Bush 97,979(41%)
               Gore 134,513(57%)
3rd Dist. Bush 173,434(64%)
              Gore 93,454(35%)
4th Dist. Bush 154,997(65%)
              Gore 78,224(33%)
That's from the Almanac of American Politics if you need a source.

Thank You.....much obliged Smiley
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