Can Romney Still Win?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it. And they are focused all in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The "Rust Belt" as they are so named, contains 54 electoral votes. And a majority of voters there really dont like Romney's work at Bain. And President Obama is leading in all of them, with Iowa either being tied or a slight Obama lead. So let's say Romney sweeps every swing state from New Hampshire to Nevada, except the Rust Belt states. (DOUBTFUL)

Obama 271 Romney 267
He's still short of 270. Voters have one for the most likable candidate ever since the 1930s, with the exception of Nixon in 68. It's gonna be hard for him to counteract people's negative perceptions of him. How can Romney win?

[Chaddyr23]

Certainly! Look,China is slowing, South Korea, India and Brazil are all slowing even faster. The world economy is about 6 months away from a significant slowdown and that'll be no good for the president. Anyways, irregardless it's Summer and a lot can happen.

[Modernity has failed us]

Nevada and New Hampshire going Republican, but not Ohio? Okay.

[GauchoJJG]

Hmm, I guess you are right.  Everyone can go home now.  Seriously, until an incumbent can get 47-48% in a poll its way to early to concede any state.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Nevada and New Hampshire going Republican, but not Ohio? Okay.

I mean Ohio and the rest of the Midwest are really where the Bain attacks are being run and having the most effect. I said its doubtful Romney sweeps everything but those states, but I was making a point that without them he can't win.

[Frodo]

Of course, much like John Kerry did in 2004.  Despite the Swift-boating, he still came achingly close to winning the presidency.  

And in Romney's favor, we have a lackluster recovery with more storm clouds brewing over the world economy, with Europe being unable to make up its mind on whether it will remain a loose and disparate Articles of Confederation-style collection of squabbling states or to pursue a more unified and centralized course, and China still in the process of shifting from an export-dominated economy to one more based on domestic consumption.  

[pepper11]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it.

Here are the last 7 polls tracking the race.

McClatchy/Marist           Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking        Obama +1
Gallup Tracking                   Tie
Reuters/Ipsos              Obama +6
Wash Times/JZ Analytics   Romney +1
ABC News/Wash Post      Tie
Quinnipiac                        Obama +3

Average: Obama +1.5

The Bain attacks for the most part started in June. Here are the last 7 polls in May.

CNN/Opinion Research   5/29 - 5/31   Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post   5/17 - 5/20   Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/16 - 5/20   Obama +4
Pew Research   5/9 - 6/3                           Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports   5/14 - 5/16           Romney +1
Gallup   5/11 - 5/17                           Romney +1
FOX News   5/13 - 5/15                   Obama +7

Average: Obama +3.1

What polls are you referring to? A Priority USA focus group that showed people don't like Bain? The NBC Swingstate poll that surveyed about 150 people? I don't see how Obama losing 1.5 point since the attacks started cause you to conclude that the attacks worked and the race is over. All the pundits talked about in May was that Obama was done, now Romney is done. Despite the microanalyzing of every day to day political victory, this race has been very steady and very close for the last 3 months and will probably stay that way until November. As a side note, I live in PA and neither campaign is advertising at all. Crossroads had a big buy in May with ads all the time. Since then there have been few if any presidential political ads.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it.

Here are the last 7 polls tracking the race.

McClatchy/Marist           Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking        Obama +1
Gallup Tracking                   Tie
Reuters/Ipsos              Obama +6
Wash Times/JZ Analytics   Romney +1
ABC News/Wash Post      Tie
Quinnipiac                        Obama +3

Average: Obama +1.5

The Bain attacks for the most part started in June. Here are the last 7 polls in May.

CNN/Opinion Research   5/29 - 5/31   Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post   5/17 - 5/20   Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/16 - 5/20   Obama +4
Pew Research   5/9 - 6/3                           Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports   5/14 - 5/16           Romney +1
Gallup   5/11 - 5/17                           Romney +1
FOX News   5/13 - 5/15                   Obama +7

Average: Obama +3.1

What polls are you referring to? A Priority USA focus group that showed people don't like Bain? The NBC Swingstate poll that surveyed about 150 people? I don't see how Obama losing 1.5 point since the attacks started cause you to conclude that the attacks worked and the race is over. All the pundits talked about in May was that Obama was done, now Romney is done. Despite the microanalyzing of every day to day political victory, this race has been very steady and very close for the last 3 months and will probably stay that way until November. As a side note, I live in PA and neither campaign is advertising at all. Crossroads had a big buy in May with ads all the time. Since then there have been few if any presidential political ads.

All the June polls show Obama up 2.4 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
You realize that most, if not all of those polling companies, with the exception of Gallup and Rasmussen have polled on whether the attacks are working.
Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32


Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?
                                FEB.    JUL.
Did more to cut jobs:     34      48
Did more to create jobs: 48      34

[pepper11]

Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32

That same poll also showed Romney up by 14 with independents. Those that are in the bag for Obama love the attacks. And it probably makes them like Romney and his business record less. But if those 24 (or 32) percent were already going to vote for Obama, who cares. You only get one vote no matter if you are 51% for Obama or 100% for Obama. In the last three ABC/Wash Post polls Obama has gone from +7 to +3 to tie (April, May, July). If attacks like these fire up the base but cause Obama to lose by 14 with independents, I'll take that come November.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32

That same poll also showed Romney up by 14 with independents. Those that are in the bag for Obama love the attacks. And it probably makes them like Romney and his business record less. But if those 24 (or 32) percent were already going to vote for Obama, who cares. You only get one vote no matter if you are 51% for Obama or 100% for Obama. In the last three ABC/Wash Post polls Obama has gone from +7 to +3 to tie (April, May, July). If attacks like these fire up the base but cause Obama to lose by 14 with independents, I'll take that come November.

Dude, the two most recent polls shows Obama leading by 6 and 7 points (Reuters/Ipsos & Pew.) And even so, national polls don't matter, a Presidential election is won state by state. And right now Obama is leading pretty comfortably in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. And thats 67 electoral votes. Face it, Romney's at best, only at a tie with the president in swing states. And the Bain attacks have contributed to it.

[President von Cat]

Lets not lose our heads here. This election is fundamentally unchanged in its overall dynamic, which is that it will be a close race that will come down to one or two states. In that sense, its the same as it was in May. The difference is that in May, Obama got clobbered by the news cycle, and in July, Romney is getting clobbered by the news cycle.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Just like what President Clinton said in my signature. This is why we love Republicans:
"The Thing I Like About Republicans; The Evidence Does Not Faze Them, They Are Not Bothered By All The Facts."- President William J. Clinton

[Peeperkorn]

If Romney wins I'll dress like a girl and post the pictures here.

Also, Colorado --> Romney NOPE.

[opebo]

It is true the race overall is still very close, and Romney still has a good chance, but as you say the non-'rust-belt' maneuver just doesn't work.  Besides, his problems in Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado (in order from least to most likely to Romney) are probably deeper than his just his 'Bain-related' anti-worker problems in Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (in the converse order).

I don't think any of the darker states above are 'flippable', and of all the flippable states, I think it is clear from polling that all but North Carolina lean from substantially (PA, NV, VA, NH) to slightly (CO, MI, OH, FL, WI, IA) to Obama. The key is, these last five states have only the most subtle polling advantage for the president, and I think Romney could easily flip FL,WI, and IA, but as the original poster points out, this still isn't enough - he still pretty much has to win Ohio.

 

[argentarius]

You guys are getting very, very ahead of yourselves. It's July.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Of course he can win... this is probably going to be a line-ball game for a while yet.

I think Obama does have an advantage in the electoral math, but it's not exactly implausible to see realistic scenarios that sees that undone.

[RogueBeaver]

What Polnut said. Don't mistake a tactical battle for the war.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These "Obama is doomed"/"Romney is doomed" threads popping up once a week alternatively are plain silly.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Romney wins I'll dress like a girl and post the pictures here.

omfg.

Please lose, Mitt.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Despite the attacks, Obama has a ton of disadvantages in this race that aren't going to go away just because he attacks Romney. Unless the economy really turns around in the next few months, it's going to be hard for Obama to win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Despite the attacks, Obama has a ton of disadvantages in this race that aren't going to go away just because he attacks Romney. Unless the economy really turns around in the next few months, it's going to be hard for Obama to win.

The funny thing is, there's analysis of presidential approval versus economic indicators and Obama should be doing a lot worse in the polls than he is. The GOP can't rely on that, because Obama has largely bucked the trend.

[Yank2133]

Despite the attacks, Obama has a ton of disadvantages in this race that aren't going to go away just because he attacks Romney. Unless the economy really turns around in the next few months, it's going to be hard for Obama to win.

The funny thing is, there's analysis of presidential approval versus economic indicators and Obama should be doing a lot worse in the polls than he is. The GOP can't rely on that, because Obama has largely bucked the trend.

Exactly.

You would think more people would realize this after 2004, Mitt can't run on the "Not-Obama" platform and expect to win IMO, you have to give a reason for people to vote for you and he hasn't yet which is why Obama is still leading by 4-5 points with unemployment hovering around 8.2%.

[DrScholl]

He can still win, but I think the odds of that happening are lower.

[WhyteRain]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait.  You mean you don't see the staggering level of irony there?

Hmmmm ... well, I guess I can understand.  I mean, Clinton was Bothered A LOT By All The Facts.

[pepper11]

With Ohio, VA, Florida, Colorado all within the margin of error in most recent polling and now with Iowa and even New Mexico close, I think you were right, Romney can no longer win.