The Right Choice

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Author's Note: Welcome to my first timeline! I've been enjoying other people's timelines, but what I haven't really seen is a long-term timeline that covers the duration of a campaign. That's what I'm trying to do here. This timeline will play out in real time as it follows Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign for president. I'm currently running about two days ahead of the actual calendar, which means you can probably expect Election Night 2012 to be posted on November 4th, 2012.

That being said, I understand this timeline will be a pretty big commitment to read. So to everyone who is reading, thank you, thank you, thank you. Either way, lack of comments isn't going to hurt my feelings: This is for personal enjoyment as much as public enjoyment. Still, comments are always welcome and encouraged. I you hope enjoy the timeline!

THUNE WILL BE VEEP, SUGGEST LEAKS FROM ROMNEY CAMP

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

Senator John Thune will be Romney’s choice for vice president, says Drudge.

Breaking the story earlier today, the Drudge Report claims Romney will name Senator John Thune (R-SD) as his choice for running mate. Thune, who has served in the senate since 2005, hails from a blue-collar background and grew up in small-town South Dakota.

While the staunch evangelical senator brings balance to Governor Romney’s ticket, some are already wondering if Thune is the right choice.

Sarah Palin commented to that on The Sean Hannity Show earlier today: “Oh, he’s a great guy, doing wonders for South Dakota. But one has to wonder, Sean, whether Thune will be enough to get people talking—to energize Republicans, which after all is what we need to win, or so the pundits say. It’s not the choice I would’ve made, but I’m unconventional in that regard. Romney can still change his mind, and I hope he does.”

Drudge suggests the announcement will be made any time between now and the weekend. The information is reported to come from a source close to Governor Romney.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

NEW MEXICO: ROMNEY WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

A new PPP poll released today suggests Mitt Romney is only five points behind the president in New Mexico. The poll, showing a 49% to 44% edge for President Obama, indicates Romney’s strongest showing in the state to date. The results become even closer in a hypothetical race with New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez on the ticket (48% to 46% for Obama).

In general, the race for the White House remains steady, despite a tough week for Mitt Romney. According to an aggregate of polls, Obama has a slight advantage in the Electoral College. Our polling map can be seen below.

Current Polling

Pres. BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA (D-IL): 288
Fmr. Gov. WILLARD MITT ROMNEY (R-MA): 235
(TOSS-UP: 15)

New Mexico: July 18th, 2012
Barack Obama: 49%
Mitt Romney: 44%
Gary Johnson: 5%

Colorado: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 45%
Mitt Romney: 44%

Florida: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 44%
Mitt Romney: 48%

Ohio: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 45%

Virginia: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 43%

North Carolina: July 1st, 2012
Barack Obama: 45%
Mitt Romney: 50%

New Hampshire: June 25th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 44%

Iowa: June 11th, 2012
Barack Obama: 46%
Mitt Romney: 47%

Nevada: June 10th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 42%

[ChairmanSanchez]

I would think Johnson would poll higher than 2% in New Mexico.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

What leads you to believe he's only polling 2%?

[ChairmanSanchez]

What leads you to believe he's only polling 2%?

Sorry, I was only counting the poll data with Martinez

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Wouldn't that still be 6% for Johnson? I always wonder what it means with these polls when the numbers don't add up to 100% lol. I'm trying to make this is accurate as I can, so all input is welcome.

[ChairmanSanchez]

Wouldn't that still be 6% for Johnson? I always wonder what it means with these polls when the numbers don't add up to 100% lol. I'm trying to make this is accurate as I can, so all input is welcome.

I 'dun goofed up Great timeline, especially hearing Palins input on Thune.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

ROMNEY FACES MORE QUESTIONS ON TAX RETURNS

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

GOP candidate Mitt Romney says he will under no circumstances release more tax returns.

Responding to criticism over the release of his tax returns Wednesday, Mitt Romney told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that two years’ worth of returns is enough.

“Wolf—Wolf, let me finish. This tax return issue is a distraction on the part of the president. I’ve been more than transparent, and I’m beginning to get, well, just a little tired of this. I will not be releasing any more documents, and President Obama is just going to have to get used to it. And you know, if I were him, I'd be apologizing for running on such a truly false message.”

The Situation Room interview saw Romney get visibly annoyed and testy. The interview comes amidst a devastating week for the all-but-certain GOP nominee. Questions about the real date of Romney’s departure from Bain Capital have dogged the former governor, and both Republicans and Democrats have called on Romney to release his tax records.

“People are beginning to wonder what Mitt has to hide,” Chief Political Analyst Gloria Borger told Blitzer yesterday. “He wouldn’t be suffering through this hailstorm if he didn’t think releasing the documents would be worse.”

Governor Romney will be holding a large rally tomorrow in Albuquerque, where his campaign says he will address these controversies.

[Jerseyrules]

Cool

[HagridOfTheDeep]

THUNE SAYS HE WILL NOT BE V.P.

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

Senator Thune denies being selected to run alongside Romney on the GOP ticket.

Senator John Thune insisted he has not been asked to serve as Mitt Romney’s running mate when cornered by reporters in Washington on Thursday. While he refused to offer any additional details, Thune’s denials are among the firmest from any prospective VP candidate to date.

“Drudge has it wrong. I won’t be Governor Romney’s running mate, even if I wanted to be. I wish you’d stop asking. Governor Romney will make the announcement when he's ready.”

With Thune out of the running, Romney’s short-list would appear to contain such names as Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman, Paul Ryan, and Bobby Jindal.

[RogueBeaver]

Let me guess: head fake involving Martinez? Keep it coming.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Let me guess: head fake involving Martinez? Keep it coming.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

ROMNEY FAVORABLES SINK, McCAIN ADMITS ROMNEY LACKS APPEAL

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

A new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll released this morning shows Romney’s favorables at just 26%—down seven points from their last poll in June.

Former presidential candidate and Romney surrogate John McCain commented on the numbers this morning with John King: “Well, Governor Romney’s gotta make the judgment for himself about fixing this problem. It’s pretty clear people aren’t excited about him, but I know Mitt—he’s a good guy and people will come around.” McCain chuckled, adding, “Maybe after he releases his tax returns.”

The question of Romney’s tax returns has become a big negative for the candidate in recent days. A new e-mail from President Obama to his supporters alleges Romney might be hiding information from the public that could potentially be fatal to his election prospects.

“Romney needs the headlines to change—fast,” McCain later said. “Maybe he should pick Sarah Palin.”

Earlier this week, an anonymous Romney source claimed Mitt would quit the race before releasing more tax returns.

Favorability



National: July 19th, 2012
Barack Obama: +49%/-46%
Mitt Romney: +26%/-43%

[HagridOfTheDeep]

BREAKING: IT’S MARTINEZ FOR VICE PRESIDENT!

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

Susana Martinez is currently serving as the first Latina governor of New Mexico. She was elected in 2010.

“Susana Martinez is an American hero,” Mitt Romney said to a crowd of thousands in Albuquerque, “and I know she’ll be the best Vice President this country has seen in a long, long time!”

The veepstakes game finally came to a resounding finish this afternoon in New Mexico when Mitt Romney announced his choice for running mate: Governor Susana Martinez. While many pundits speculated Romney would go with a more traditional choice like South Dakota Senator John Thune, it was Martinez who got the nod for her “sympathetic tenacity” and “passionate conviction.”

Her speech in New Mexico was well-attended and even better received. The V.P announcement was not expected until later in the week. Citing her experience as governor, Martinez sought to define herself as a compassionate conservative. “As governor, I have fought for you,” she said. “It wasn’t easy—it’s never easy… but we managed to pass two balanced budgets in the state of New Mexico. Some felt we should have raised taxes, despite the jobs that would’ve been lost. Others felt we needed deep cuts in education and Medicaid. But we came together and found a better way. No tax hikes and no cuts to precious programs like the ones I mentioned. I’ve learned that we can  makes things work, as long as we’re willing to try. We canbring these changes to Washington, if only we’d believe in America.”

The Sarah Palin comparisons have been inevitable. Both women were less than two years into their first terms as governor, and both women are extremely charismatic.

“Mitt Romney’s taken a big risk here,” said CNN’s David Gergen shortly after the announcement. “Most of us on the panel can agree that Susana Martinez is no Palin. But will the voters see that? I’m not sure.”

Governor Martinez brings an impressive resume on education, a steadfast pro-life record, and some much-needed energy to the Romney campaign. But questions remain: Is she a Sarah Palin? Would she be ready to take over the presidency?

Martinez and Romney will appear in a series of joint interviews tomorrow. Romney spokespeople claim Martinez will address these Palin comparisons head-on. Campaigning is set to continue through the weekend.

The GOP Ticket


WILLARD MITT ROMNEY (R-MA) & SUSANA MARTINEZ (R-NM)

[Jayhawker]

I think Martinez is a risky choice, but I think its a chance I'd want to take if I were Mitt. Looking forward to more!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Thanks!
I noticed a little too late that you did a timeline with Martinez last year... sorry.
It was really good though.

As for me, I've always loved Martinez. I think she'd be an awesome pick for Mitt. Unfortunately, it's looking like that will be pretty unlikely... but one can always hope. You'll definitely get to see a bit of the riskiness of a Martinez pick here though,  that's for sure.

Thanks for reading!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

PALIN: “MARTINEZ IS A LOT LIKE ME”

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin offers hearty praise of the Martinez pick—but is that what
the Romney camp wants?

Just hours after Romney introduced his running mate to the country, he is already dealing with criticism that his choice (New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez) is too similar to Sarah Palin. Palin herself did little to quell these concerns Thursday night, when she spoke with FOX’s Greta Van Susteren.

“I like Susana Martinez a lot more than I like John Thune, I’ll tell you that,” Palin said. “She’s a fiery conservative—I once called her a Mama Grizzly—and more importantly, she’ll bring excitement, and buzz, and energy that these good ol’ boy Republicans so desperately need. Honestly, I’m surprised at Governor Romney—I would not have guessed he’d make a choice like this. But Greta, I’m over the moon: Susana Martinez is a lot like me.”

The Obama campaign, caught off-guard by today’s surprise running mate announcement, has not yet commented on the selection of Governor Martinez. Palin’s remarks will no doubt give the president’s team some heavy ammunition to launch at Romney.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

HEADLINES NOT GOOD FOR ROMNEY-MARTINEZ

Friday, July 20th, 2012

The Romney campaign awoke Friday to an onslaught of negative coverage over the selection of Susana Martinez for running mate. While some women’s rights activists laud Romney for choosing a woman to run with, many have also expressed disdain that the Martinez choice appears to be a blatant ploy to win the female vote.

As pundits continue to compare Susana Martinez to John McCain’s 2008 running mate, the Romney campaign has an uphill battle when it comes to reassuring voters that Martinez is a qualified candidate for the position of vice president.

     


       

[Jayhawker]

Just wait till she gives her acceptance speech - her and Palin have very few similarities outside of both being conservative women.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Oh, I know. She's probably my favourite female politician at the moment. Her whole career in law was about fighting for children. When she speaks about kids, you could hear a pin drop... it's amazing. She'd be able to connect to women without relying on folksy garbage like Palin did.

She'll have an uphill battle against the MSM in this timeline though.

Also, just a note to anyone reading... I expect this to be a pretty detailed timeline lol. So don't expect election night for a while. I might do some fastforwards through the boring weeks, but I can't make any promises.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

ROMNEY TICKET APPEARS ON STARTING POINT, DRAWS CONTRASTS WITH PALIN

Friday, July 20th, 2012


with Soledad O'Brien

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN (CNN) We have with us today GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, along with his surprise pick--can I say that? It was a surprise--his rurprise pick for running mate, Susana Martinez. Welcome to the program.	MITT ROMNEY (R-MA) It's a pleasure to be here.	SUSANA MARTINEZ (R-NM) We're looking forward to clearing a few things up.
Well then, let me get right to it. As you are both aware, there's been a fair amount criticism levelled at you, Governor Romney, for choosing what some percieve to be an "inexperienced" vice presidential candidate. What do you say to that?	Well, I say it's foolish of course. Governor Martinez has been a brilliant governor for the state of New Mexico and was an exceptional attorney before that. I think the people who are counting her out really need to take a second look, Soledad. This is a woman who has fought tooth and nail for families, and I'm honored to have such a true American beside me.	You know, I just... I just find this sort of funny. I have experience actually running a state. Barack Obama never had that. In fact, he didn't really have much more experience than me at all.
	She's exactly right. And look where it's put the American people, Soledad: forty straight months of unemployment over eight percent, and the end isn't in even in sight. That's not the America we want.
So you don't put any stock in the Sarah Palin comparisons?	Oh, of course not. Sarah Palin... well, she had more of a flair for the dramatic. Governor Martinez is disciplined, well-read, knowledgeable. She's just a spectacular asset.
Is that to suggest Sarah Palin is not, quote, "disciplined, well-read, and knowledgeable?"	No, no, of course not.	I think what the Governor is trying to say--and go ahead and stop me if I'm wrong--is that our dispositions are really quite different. Do I believe in a lot of what Sarah Palin believes in? I do, or I wouldn't be a Republican. But I'm happy to help out wherever I can. I know I'm number two, and I'm not expecting to be treated like anything else. Mitt's going to replace President Obama, not me!
How did you feel your reception was yesterday?		Phenomenal.
You're very popular in your state.		I'm very lucky. But I do think it goes beyond state lines... or at least I'd like to hope it does! The trick is, you've just go to to love what you do. And I love serving so many hardworking New Mexicans. I'm so excited to get out on the train and hear from Americans, because I know we've got the opportunity to make a difference. Ask them: What's working? What's not? What can we do to help? This is all part of what being vice president is about... and I will say: I appreciate how down-to-Earth Vice President Biden has been during his term.
Governor Romney... are you worried at all about that vice presidential debate in the fall?	Not at all. Susana is tenacious--she'll hold her own, don't you worry.	I'm looking forward to it.
Well, that's all we've got time for. Thanks for beaming in to talk with us. Good luck on the campaign trail.	Thanks, Soledad.	Thank you.

[Jerseyrules]

They handled that fantastically.  The only potential problem is Sarah's response

[ChairmanSanchez]

They handled that fantastically.  The only potential problem is Sarah's response

Exactly what I was thinking.

[NHI]

This is great!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

PRE-MARTINEZ POLLS SHOW CLOSE STATE RACES, POST-MARTINEZ POLLS SHOW ROMNEY SLIPPING

Friday, July 20th, 2012

Two Rasmussen polls released today out of New Hampshire and Iowa show a deadlocked race between President Barack Obama and GOP candidate Mitt Romney. While the polls were conducted before Romney announced his surprise choice for running mate, the results are significant—especially the results from New Hampshire. Romney has closed the gap between himself and the president, polling 46% to Obama’s 48%. The race in Iowa is equally tight, with Romney enjoying 48% support and Obama enjoying 46%.

Most significant though is Romney’s registered decline in today’s daily tracking poll from Gallup. The poll is widely seen as one of the first measures of support for Romney’s new running mate, Governor Martinez. The head-to-head matchup shows Romney garnering 43% support to the president’s 48%.

A CNN flash poll also out today corroborates the idea that Romney’s waning support might be attributed to voter perceptions of Martinez. Martinez earned a 32% favorability rating compared to a 30% unfavorable score. In an interview with FOX’s Shepard Smith, Romney expressed optimism that the numbers will change once people “get to know Martinez and stop comparing her to other figures in the party.”

The Romney campaign is set to air a series of national television ads that will introduce Martinez to the country.

Favorability



National: July 20th, 2012
Joe Biden: +49%/-40%
Susana Martinez: +32%/-30%

Does Mitt Romney’s selection of Susana Martinez
for running mate make you more or less likely to
support Mitt Romney in the November election?

National Independents: July 20th, 2012
More likely: 29%
Less likely: 44%
No change: 27%


Current Polling

National Daily Tracking: July 20th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 43%


Pres. BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA (D-IL): 284
Fmr. Gov. WILLARD MITT ROMNEY (R-MA): 235
(TOSS-UP: 19)

Iowa: July 20th, 2012
Barack Obama: 46%
Mitt Romney: 48% (+1)

New Hampshire: July 20th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 46% (+2)

New Mexico: July 18th, 2012
Barack Obama: 49%
Mitt Romney: 44%
Gary Johnson: 5%

 Colorado: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 45%
Mitt Romney: 44%

Florida: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 44%
Mitt Romney: 48%

Ohio: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 45%

Virginia: July 13th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 43%

North Carolina: July 1st, 2012
Barack Obama: 45%
Mitt Romney: 50%

Nevada: June 10th, 2012
Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 42%