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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
| | |-+  International What-ifs (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | | |-+  Australian Federal Election 2007- Beazley Remains Labor Leader
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Question: If Kim Beazley had remained Labor Leader in 2007, what would have been the result of the federal election?
Hung Parliament   -0 (0%)
Increased Coalition Majority   -0 (0%)
Decreased Coalition Majority   -2 (28.6%)
Labor Victory narrower than Rudd's   -4 (57.1%)
Labor Victory larger than Rudd's   -1 (14.3%)
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Total Voters: 7

Author Topic: Australian Federal Election 2007- Beazley Remains Labor Leader  (Read 500 times)
Talleyrand
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« on: July 16, 2012, 11:17:57 pm »
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I think Beazley would have won the election by something like 52-48, with a majority smaller than Rudd's. He would have made less gains in Queensland, but received a net gain in WA. Since he doesn't have the personal problems Rudd had, he'd probably have had a quiet first term and expanded his majority in 2010.

Any thoughts on this?
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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2012, 08:09:45 am »
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Howard was damaged goods by 2007, but Beazles would've done worse as he wasn't as strong of a candidate as Rudd.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2012, 11:28:05 pm »
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I think the Coalition would have won a fifth and final term had Beazley stayed as Labor leader. Howard would have resigned sometime in that term and replaced by Costello, who probably would have lost in 2010 to a new Labor leader (probably Rudd)
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Smid
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2012, 12:03:38 am »
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Oh great, another blue Australian avatar, now I'm not going to be able to immediately recognise my posts!

Welcome to the Forum, Anton!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2012, 11:06:35 pm »
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Given how narrow it was IRL even with Rudd (9 seats swung by less than 3%- which leaves the Coalition with 78 seats) I'd say Howard has a pretty decent shot at winning. Unless Costello takes over at the end of 2006, dunno if that can also be an OP scenario.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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