Having trouble getting Romney to 269...

[Reaganfan]

I was experimenting with the electoral map and using my non-partisan honest opinion predictions (I predicted Bush and Obama both winning in 2004 and 2008), I keep getting this electoral result:



Obama: 303
Romney: 235

I tried looking at different polling but no matter what, I kept seeing that number unchanged, Obama: 303.

Even if Virginia and Ohio slip to Romney as it appears likely Indiana, Florida and North Carolina may do...he still comes up short:



Obama: 272
Romney: 266

He would need one more state, and my problem is...I can't imagine any of the outstanding states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire) slipping into his column.

Any opinions on this?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I've had this mental problem as well. It's Rove's 3-2-1 strategy.

As it stands right now, I'll be surprised if Romney doesn't win Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. I also think it's possible for Romney to flip Ohio and Virginia (though it will be a challenge, and Virginia will be especially difficult). But finding that last "1" state is really troubling to me. I just don't see it. I think our best bet might be Colorado, but who knows. That won't even matter if we can't flip Virginia.

[RogueBeaver]

IA or CO would be my guess.

[Vosem]

Iowa seems like a good bet (polling has shown it more Republican than, say, OH or VA) for the most likely. New Hampshire, where polling in 2011 and early 2012 showed consistent Romney leads, also can't be written off. Western states like Colorado and Nevada don't seem as promising but aren't exactly non-starters either.

[OC]

[OC]

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

I think Iowa might slip to Romney, but honestly I don't see Romney getting there either. I keep getting Obama at 303 or 297. He's had a surprisingly consistent, albeit slim lead in Ohio. And in Virginia, Purple Strategies is the only poll besides Rasmussen that shows Romney within 2 or 3 points of Obama. Right now I'd say that Obama has A LOT of ways to get to 270. Romney only has Rove's 3-2-1 strategy, and if even one of the states Rove predicts should go to Romney, goes to Obama, Romney is screwed.

I'd say this the most likely Romney win map, give or take New Hampshire. A 272 or 276 electoral vote win. The Latino Gap makes it pretty hard to take Nevada or Colorado from Obama.

[RJ]

I tried looking at different polling but no matter what, I kept seeing that number unchanged, Obama: 303.

Even if Virginia and Ohio slip to Romney as it appears likely Indiana, Florida and North Carolina may do...he still comes up short:



Obama: 272
Romney: 266

He would need one more state, and my problem is...I can't imagine any of the outstanding states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire) slipping into his column.

Any opinions on this?

Flipping NH, IA NV and VA will give a 269-269 result. Not particularly likely but possible.

[Torie]

Iowa seems like a good bet (polling has shown it more Republican than, say, OH or VA) for the most likely. New Hampshire, where polling in 2011 and early 2012 showed consistent Romney leads, also can't be written off. Western states like Colorado and Nevada don't seem as promising but aren't exactly non-starters either.

Yes, Iowa is Mittens' savior assuming that NH is a fail for him. If he then wins Wisconsin, but loses Virginia, we will have an electoral college tie, and the House will put Mittens in, but the Senate might make Biden his VP if the Pubs don't capture it.

[pbrower2a]

IA or CO would be my guess.

Both of those are wishful thinking. NH is in the same league.

The 2008 Obama campaign successfully shaped the electoral reality so that the other side had to make reckless gambles to win. We can reasonably expect much the same this year.

[True Federalist]

If Wisconsin turns out to not be fools' gold, here's a quite possible 269-269 map:



I don't see Romney bagging Wisconsin without also bagging Iowa, and his chances are better in Ohio than Virginia. An EV tie means Romney wins in the House and his running mate might or might not win in the Senate.

[milhouse24]

If Romney is really behind in Iowa, then he should pick Thune for VP. 
Thune also has enough gravitas and respect in DC to improve the evangelical vote in Virginia. 

Portman, probably can't help in Iowa. 

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

I agree. If the electoral math was more in his favour I'd feel a lot less confident in Obama winning. As it is though....

Proof that the rank and file of the Republican party is way out of the mainstream.

[Supersonic]

Colorado is not insurmountable for Romney, I don't know why people are presuming it's basically safe Obama. Purple Strategies had O up one in their latest poll, they had a tie in April as well. Marist had O up by one point too. Rasmussen also found a tie. Only PPP has had some wacky results, like Obama up ten.

New Hampshire is hard to judge. Romney must hope its anti-incumbent, fiscally conservative nature pulls him through in November. The lack of minorities helps him too. The latest poll here had Obama up four, which is not insurmountable at all.

Iowa is looking like the GOP's best bet at the moment, it's polling is on a razor.

Nevada, lol, Romney isn't winning unless he has already won all the above.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Whoa, even Naso's admitting this?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Whoa, even Naso's admitting this?

No doubt that if Romney gets 269 electoral votes, and loses the popular vote, but the House still chooses him as President, he'll have a "huge mandate", just like RomneyCare.

[Kevin]

He can certainly get above 269 like others have already mentioned.

Keep in mind recent polls had Romney with a narrow lead in Iowa, and he has led in NH and CO at a couple ofpoints or another before.

[dadge]

EV is currently calling IA for Romney http://electoral-vote.com/

Of the rest, OH is the most likely. That gets him up to 259. That leaves him needing either VA or CO+NH. The latter seems more likely.

A couple of weeks of bad news, or POTUS foot-in-mouth, could gift Romney the 2-4% swing he needs, though the Bain stuff is stalling his campaign at the moment.

In the long term, the GOP needs to focus on PA if it wants to make life easier for itself.

[Supersonic]

EV is currently calling IA for Romney http://electoral-vote.com/

Of the rest, OH is the most likely. That gets him up to 259. That leaves him needing either VA or CO+NH. The latter seems more likely.

A couple of weeks of bad news, or POTUS foot-in-mouth, could gift Romney the 2-4% swing he needs, though the Bain stuff is stalling his campaign at the moment.

In the long term, the GOP needs to focus on PA if it wants to make life easier for itself.

Scratch that, they just updated it with a... PPP... poll.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

^LOL. That's like deciding to clean your glasses with a kleenex covered in sh**t.

[opebo]

VA looks great, NH pretty good, but IA is slipping away, Ohio is, though so far more Democratic-leaning than in the past, very iffy, and yes, Colorado could go down as well, though I've high hopes for it.

So, Romney has a very reasonable chance of this high point - 278 electoral votes:

[Jacobtm]

Obama will win.

[opebo]

Obama will win.

I'm not so sure.  He is after all a black and his white support has collapsed - he has a pretty good floor, but that's all:



Even PA and MI will likely be very close.  The fact remains that the white working class voters have swung against him very strongly.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Keep in mind recent polls had Romney with a narrow lead in Iowa

What?