China may go to war with Vietnam to shore up support: Russian media

[dead0man]

link

An article published in a Russian newspaper suggests that China's government will launch a war against Vietnam over the South China Sea, both to establish sovereignty over disputed islands and consolidate the support of its public.

While both Beijing and Hanoi are inviting foreign companies to explore the rich natural resources beneath the South China Sea, Moscow appears to have sided with Hanoi rather than Beijing.

Russia's Gazprom, the largest natural gas extractor in the world, has signed a contract with the Vietnamese government to develop resources in disputed areas, triggering protests from Beijing. At the same time, Moscow has provided military assistance to Vietnam's armed forces, importing advanced weapons such as Su-30MK2 fighters, Gepard-class frigates and Yakhont anti-ship missiles.

Russia has also supplied weapons to India, another of China's regional competitors, and took part in the RIMPAC joint naval exercises held by the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. From the Russian point of view, China remains a much bigger threat than Vietnam or even the United States.

Yet the article said that the Chinese government may launch a war against Vietnam simply to consolidate the rule of the Communist Party within the country, where leaders consistently worry about "social stability."

The article said that China is now being isolated by nearly every capital in the region, where six parties claim sovereignty over all or part of the islands and reefs of the South China Sea. Roughly 30 Chinese fishing boats arrived at the disputed Spratly Islands on Sunday, under the protection of Fishery Administration Ship 301, reported China's state-run Xinhua news agency. This fleet consisted of a 3,000-tonne supply ship and 29 other vessels, and will spend the next five to 10 days near the waters of Yongshu Reef, known in English as Fiery Cross Reef.

[The Mikado]

While Vietnam is saber-rattling hard right now (see the "protests" this past week...Vietnamese people don't "protest" without governmental approval), neither side really wants to go to blows over the Spratlys. 

This days after Hillary Clinton cleaned up in Phnom Penh at the ASEAN summit.  US is making a big charm offensive in SE Asia in the wake of China pissing everyone off and Burma/Myanmar leaving Beijing's orbit and opening up.

[Senator Sbane]

Basically all of Asia, Australia and apparently Russia are wary of Chinese power.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are 6 countries that have overlapping claims in the South China sea. There's actually a small fraction claimed by all 6. I don't think China is going to bother to go after Taiwan here, but that leaves Vietnam and 3 other countries.

[dead0man]

Russian Coast Guard Fires On Chinese Boat, Straining Friendship

But China's fishermen are drawing fire, literally, even in the colder reaches of the Northwestern Pacific.

In the waters of the Sea of Japan, it is not the Japanese coast guard being drawn into yet another sea-borne confrontation with suspected Chinese poachers, but the Russians -- one of the few nations in the region that Beijing has worked hard in past years to maintain warm relations with.

On Tuesday, Russian media agencies, such as RIA Novosti, reported that a patrol ship fired warning shots against poachers found within the country's exclusive economic zone, who were flying a Chinese flag. Maps shown on Chinese sites indicate the incident may have taken place to the west of the southern tip of the island of Sakhalin, known for its rich mineral, oil, and wildlife resources.

RIA Novosti says the Chinese vessel was thereafter pursued by the Russian coast guard in a three-hour chase before being fired upon again, disabled, rammed, and finally boarded. Seventeen sailors in the Chinese vessel were captured unharmed, but another was reported to have fallen overboard in the ensuing chaos. Chinese and Russian media report that the missing sailor has not yet been recovered. Survival time for an unprotected swimmer in the cold Northwestern Pacific is very limited.

<snip>

[London Man]

link

An article published in a Russian newspaper suggests that China's government will launch a war against Vietnam over the South China Sea, both to establish sovereignty over disputed islands and consolidate the support of its public.

While both Beijing and Hanoi are inviting foreign companies to explore the rich natural resources beneath the South China Sea, Moscow appears to have sided with Hanoi rather than Beijing.

Russia's Gazprom, the largest natural gas extractor in the world, has signed a contract with the Vietnamese government to develop resources in disputed areas, triggering protests from Beijing. At the same time, Moscow has provided military assistance to Vietnam's armed forces, importing advanced weapons such as Su-30MK2 fighters, Gepard-class frigates and Yakhont anti-ship missiles.

Russia has also supplied weapons to India, another of China's regional competitors, and took part in the RIMPAC joint naval exercises held by the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. From the Russian point of view, China remains a much bigger threat than Vietnam or even the United States.

Yet the article said that the Chinese government may launch a war against Vietnam simply to consolidate the rule of the Communist Party within the country, where leaders consistently worry about "social stability."

The article said that China is now being isolated by nearly every capital in the region, where six parties claim sovereignty over all or part of the islands and reefs of the South China Sea. Roughly 30 Chinese fishing boats arrived at the disputed Spratly Islands on Sunday, under the protection of Fishery Administration Ship 301, reported China's state-run Xinhua news agency. This fleet consisted of a 3,000-tonne supply ship and 29 other vessels, and will spend the next five to 10 days near the waters of Yongshu Reef, known in English as Fiery Cross Reef.

"The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions." - Robert Lynd (1879-1949)

It's one of two quotes from David Weber's sci-fi novel The Short Victorious War (the third in the Honor Harrington series), where the war that is actually started proves to be anything but.

[Jacobtm]

Yea right.

When is the last time China has waged an American-style war just to show who's boss?

The People's Republic of China has proven to be much less of a threat to countries around the world than The United States of America has. They certainly don't have the track record of permanent war that we do.

Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.

[Jack Vance RIP]

Yea right.

When is the last time China has waged an American-style war just to show who's boss?

The People's Republic of China has proven to be much less of a threat to countries around the world than The United States of America has. They certainly don't have the track record of permanent war that we do.

Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.

How about the last time China fought a war against Vietnam (which was done in part due to the insistence of the US)?

Which isn't to say that I'm expecting dramatics this time around.

[The Mikado]

Yea right.

When is the last time China has waged an American-style war just to show who's boss?

The People's Republic of China has proven to be much less of a threat to countries around the world than The United States of America has. They certainly don't have the track record of permanent war that we do.

Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.

How about the last time China fought a war against Vietnam (which was done in part due to the insistence of the US)?

Which isn't to say that I'm expecting dramatics this time around.

Damn, beaten.  Was about to post the Third Indochina War myself, though even that was theoretically China protecting its little puppet, Pol Pot's Cambodia, from Vietnamese "aggression."

[opebo]

Pretty much the only country in ASEAN still un-alienated from the Chinese is Thailand - after all they have no claims whatever in the 'South China Sea'.  And also the lousy Red government is China-leaning by default - since the cozy relationship with the US has always historically been with the 'yellow side'.

[Jacobtm]

How about the last time China fought a war against Vietnam (which was done in part due to the insistence of the US)?

Which isn't to say that I'm expecting dramatics this time around.

A one-month conflict is hardly a US-style multi-year invasion.

China has shown much more restraint than the United State has in regards to invading/occupying countries willy nilly

[clarence]

How about the last time China fought a war against Vietnam (which was done in part due to the insistence of the US)?

Which isn't to say that I'm expecting dramatics this time around.

A one-month conflict is hardly a US-style multi-year invasion.

China has shown much more restraint than the United State has in regards to invading/occupying countries willy nilly

If you hate the US so much and feel China is better- move there!

[asexual trans victimologist]

How about the last time China fought a war against Vietnam (which was done in part due to the insistence of the US)?

Which isn't to say that I'm expecting dramatics this time around.

A one-month conflict is hardly a US-style multi-year invasion.

China has shown much more restraint than the United State has in regards to invading/occupying countries willy nilly

If you hate the US so much and feel China is better- move there!

To be fair, Jacob is correct in that invasion isn't how modern China operates. There are plenty of things wrong with it, obviously, but it hasn't really invaded and occupied anywhere since (arguably) Tibet.

[Beet]

When Obama came into office, it was the US that was humiliated in the region and China was as rapidly building closer relations with Southeast Asia through the ASEAN free trade zone, threatening to shut the US out. Obama's "Asia first" strategy has now yielded fruits. China made a mistake by abandoning Hu Jintao's "peaceful development" formulation and listening to domestic sabre-rattlers. It should realize that the status quo is relatively favorable to China and the first foreign policy priority should be building friendly relationships with its neighbors.

[danny]

A one-month conflict is hardly a US-style multi-year invasion.

China has shown much more restraint than the United State has in regards to invading/occupying countries willy nilly

Yeah, I'm sure they left a month after this invasion. Oh, wait...

[Foucaulf]

The People's Republic of China has proven to be much less of a threat to countries around the world than The United States of America has. They certainly don't have the track record of permanent war that we do.

Just because a country isn't on a civilizing mission doesn't mean it can't pose a threat. Certainly Africans upset with the Chinese gobbling up resources aren't happy. Countries on China's periphery can never be at peace with such a massive nation. You could argue that the way nations' economies are becoming so dependent on Chinese consumption means China's collapse would do substantial economic harm.

Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.

Border conflicts have always existed since modern China's creation. The most noticeable right now are Taiwan, Chinese migrants labouring in the Russian Far East, the South Sea stuff. But China's leaders know warfare is too costly, so the strategy is to settle in so long that the Chinese cannot be deplaced.

China also has to deal with interior conflicts in Xinjiang and Tibet - a colonization that has gone on for centuries. Maybe you would like to think one country is responsible for all the bad in the world, but that's just a perverse form of American exceptionalism, isn't it?

[Jacobtm]

The People's Republic of China has proven to be much less of a threat to countries around the world than The United States of America has. They certainly don't have the track record of permanent war that we do.

Just because a country isn't on a civilizing mission doesn't mean it can't pose a threat. Certainly Africans upset with the Chinese gobbling up resources aren't happy. Countries on China's periphery can never be at peace with such a massive nation. You could argue that the way nations' economies are becoming so dependent on Chinese consumption means China's collapse would do substantial economic harm.

Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.

Border conflicts have always existed since modern China's creation. The most noticeable right now are Taiwan, Chinese migrants labouring in the Russian Far East, the South Sea stuff. But China's leaders know warfare is too costly, so the strategy is to settle in so long that the Chinese cannot be deplaced.

China also has to deal with interior conflicts in Xinjiang and Tibet - a colonization that has gone on for centuries. Maybe you would like to think one country is responsible for all the bad in the world, but that's just a perverse form of American exceptionalism, isn't it?

China of course, just like any large country, is a menace to many people. Any power that great is.

But they certainly don't do things like invading an occupying Iraq, Afghanistan, or anything like that.

I'm not trying to say they're run by saints, they aren't, but for all their flaws countries have far less to be worried about from the Chinese Military than the American Military.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's funny is that the ROC actually claims more land than the PRC.

[Foucaulf]

China of course, just like any large country, is a menace to many people. Any power that great is.

But they certainly don't do things like invading an occupying Iraq, Afghanistan, or anything like that.

I'm not trying to say they're run by saints, they aren't, but for all their flaws countries have far less to be worried about from the Chinese Military than the American Military.

As always I'm too aggressive in my first post, but there's a point there somewhere.

I gave some reasons why China would not wage war: too much going within their borders, lacking the technology to project influence, etc. But a misguided reason would be to say "China's not like warmongering America".  That's not an informative way to analyze the world, not to mention it evades how the US came to have its global presence anyway.

[Simfan34]

What's funny is that the ROC actually claims more land than the PRC.

The funnier thing is that the ROC is essentially forced to continue claiming those lands lest it do anything constituted as a declaration of independence.

But China and Vietnam have never been particularly friendly, Hanoi was always more in the Soviet sphere and nowadays in the American sphere- making the Vietnam War the second greatest geopolitical blunder of the second half of the 20th century (not to mention the fact Ho Chi Minh wanted US aid from the get go).

Now it remains to be seen what support, if any, outside powers (read Moscow and Washington) shall lend Vietnam, and whether it shall be merely diplomatic or take a more active role.

And, as said, the idea China is not some imperialist nation by default is silly. Traditionally, the Chinese view of the nation was quite different from our modern Westphalian convention. Almost every state between the Andaman Sea, the Kra Isthmus, and the Sea of Japan was made to pay tribute to the Heavenly Kingdom at one point or another. They mightn't have conquered them outright, but they made their presence felt. This attitude, in some ways, persists to this day. 

[London Man]

China of course, just like any large country, is a menace to many people. Any power that great is.

But they certainly don't do things like invading an occupying Iraq, Afghanistan, or anything like that.

I'm not trying to say they're run by saints, they aren't, but for all their flaws countries have far less to be worried about from the Chinese Military than the American Military.

As always I'm too aggressive in my first post, but there's a point there somewhere.

I gave some reasons why China would not wage war: too much going within their borders, lacking the technology to project influence, etc. But a misguided reason would be to say "China's not like warmongering America".  That's not an informative way to analyze the world, not to mention it evades how the US came to have its global presence anyway.

The PLA lacks the capability to project power that far beyond their borders (i.e. aircraft carriers or long-range bombers) and the global basing network the US has. There aren't a lot of places locally it could invade with a guarantee of success if it was inclined that way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's funny is that the ROC actually claims more land than the PRC.

The funnier thing is that the ROC is essentially forced to continue claiming those lands lest it do anything constituted as a declaration of independence.

But I don't think the PRC claims any of Mongolia, Russia, Pakistan, Bhutan, or Myanmar, so I doubt they'd care if the ROC gave up those claims.

Another funny thing is that Taiwan claims all of Mongolia, and they are 2 of the 5 or so freest countries in Asia according to Freedom House.