NJ: Quinnipiac University: Obama leads by double-digits
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Author Topic: NJ: Quinnipiac University: Obama leads by double-digits  (Read 2120 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 18, 2012, 01:30:57 PM »
New Poll: New Jersey President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-07-17

Summary: D: 49%, R: 38%, I: 2%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2012, 02:15:43 PM »
Seems a little closer than it should be but whatever. It's not like Romney will be wasting his time here.
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Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2012, 04:23:31 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on July 18, 2012, 02:15:43 PM
Seems a little closer than it should be but whatever. It's not like Romney will be wasting his time here.

New Jersey is probably the second most Republican-friendly Northeast Corridor state after New Hampshire (not counting Pennsylvania at the moment because so much of it is culturally Appalachian or Midwestern).
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2012, 04:36:22 PM »
This is a very good poll. It is accurate both on the toplines and where it has Mitt Romney with a slight advantage among New Jersey whites and close among New Jersey independents.
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Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2012, 04:43:01 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2012, 04:47:59 PM by Nathan »
Quote from: krazen1211 on July 18, 2012, 04:36:22 PM
This is a very good poll. It is accurate both on the toplines and where it has Mitt Romney with a slight advantage among New Jersey whites and close among New Jersey independents.

For once we agree. With the exception that the undecideds are oddly high (which is par for the course for a university poll) it definitely seems reasonable that New Jersey should be about O+11-12. It puts us right in between 2004's K+7 and 2008's O+16, which I think is about accurate. New Jersey seems like a state where Romney might have greater-than-average pull.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2012, 06:15:33 PM »
You Democrats who are thinking Obama is gonna win by his 2008 margins or larger are delusional.   Obama ain't getting Jersey by 15 again.  MAYBE 10..
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2012, 06:23:25 PM »
Quote from: timothyinMD on July 18, 2012, 06:15:33 PM
You Democrats who are thinking Obama is gonna win by his 2008 margins or larger are delusional.   Obama ain't getting Jersey by 15 again.  MAYBE 10..

What posts are you responding to?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2012, 06:47:49 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on July 18, 2012, 06:23:25 PM
Quote from: timothyinMD on July 18, 2012, 06:15:33 PM
You Democrats who are thinking Obama is gonna win by his 2008 margins or larger are delusional.   Obama ain't getting Jersey by 15 again.  MAYBE 10..

What posts are you responding to?

I don't think he was responding... just making sure we knew.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2012, 07:52:58 PM »
Romney's a nice fit in NJ for a Republican.  I get the sense that the suburban Republicans in North Jersey make like him more than anyone since Reagan.

He'll be happy with how here performs here regardless of the overall election results.  55-44 Obama in the end. 
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mondale84
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2012, 09:03:09 PM »
Quote from: AWallTEP81 on July 18, 2012, 07:52:58 PM
Romney's a nice fit in NJ for a Republican.  I get the sense that the suburban Republicans in North Jersey make like him more than anyone since Reagan.

He'll be happy with how here performs here regardless of the overall election results.  55-44 Obama in the end. 

Nate Silver did a great piece on this:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/in-blue-new-jersey-red-spots-may-be-sign-of-the-past/
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Jay20
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2012, 01:17:32 AM »
Republicans have not won New Jersey since Dukakis was the Dem nominee. I don't think that any states which last voted Republican in 1988 are going to Romney.
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Nathan
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2012, 03:01:47 PM »
Quote from: Jay20 on July 19, 2012, 01:17:32 AM
Republicans have not won New Jersey since Dukakis was the Dem nominee. I don't think that any states which last voted Republican in 1988 are going to Romney.

Nobody's contemplating New Jersey going to Romney.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2012, 05:46:55 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on July 18, 2012, 09:03:09 PM
Quote from: AWallTEP81 on July 18, 2012, 07:52:58 PM
Romney's a nice fit in NJ for a Republican.  I get the sense that the suburban Republicans in North Jersey make like him more than anyone since Reagan.

He'll be happy with how here performs here regardless of the overall election results.  55-44 Obama in the end. 

Nate Silver did a great piece on this:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/in-blue-new-jersey-red-spots-may-be-sign-of-the-past/


Nate Silver picked an exceedingly poor set of examples to make an exceedingly poor point.. Both Morris and Somerset County moved less than the national average from 2004-2008, and Ocean and Monmouth barely shifted at all and Obama did not do a whole lot better than Kerry among suburban whites.

The state is not moving anywhere. All non Christie elections end up the same +- 1 point.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2012, 02:44:14 PM »
Quote from: Former President Polnut on July 18, 2012, 06:47:49 PM
Quote from: brittain33 on July 18, 2012, 06:23:25 PM
Quote from: timothyinMD on July 18, 2012, 06:15:33 PM
You Democrats who are thinking Obama is gonna win by his 2008 margins or larger are delusional.   Obama ain't getting Jersey by 15 again.  MAYBE 10..

What posts are you responding to?

I don't think he was responding... just making sure we knew.

I was responding to "Eraserhead"'s comment
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