NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-07-17

Summary: D: 42%, R: 38%, I: 13%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

49-44 Obama/Romney

48% Obama/Biden
47% Romney/Martinez

[mondale84]

Outlier. No way Romney is winning 21% of Dems. Either outlier or PPP is manipulating the numbers to try to look more like a "neutral" poster. Obama is up at least 10.

[Invisible Obama]

I'm thinking that PPP is probably tweaking numbers a bit because of complaints over bias. It just seems very implausible Romney would win that many Democrats in any state that is not southern.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

No way Romney is winning 21% of Dems.

Yeah, that's just bizarre. I don't buy it.

[Reaganfan]

No way Romney is winning 21% of Dems.

Yeah, that's just bizarre. I don't buy it.

It matches well with a tightening seen in other states, including New Hampshire.

[mondale84]

No way Romney is winning 21% of Dems.

Yeah, that's just bizarre. I don't buy it.

It matches well with a tightening seen in other states, including New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is a swing state, New Mexico is not.

[opebo]

Pretty hard to believe.  The state's only something like 42% 'white'.  Of course I suppose they are a larger percentage of the electorate.

[Clinton1996]

Yeah, this is definitely an outlier. I highly doubt Romney is getting 21 percent of democrats but Obama is still 9 points ahead among independents.

[timothyinMD]

I believe it.  I expect a tighter contest in NM this election.  2008 was the outlier.  Prior to that NM had been razor thin in 2000 and 2004

[opebo]

I believe it.  I expect a tighter contest in NM this election.  2008 was the outlier.  Prior to that NM had been razor thin in 2000 and 2004

What's the key?  Significant numbers of those NM Hispanics are evangelicals rather than Catholics?  It just seems odd that a state only 42% white would even be close.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

[MorningInAmerica]

LOL at everyone whining about the crosstabs. This poll is D+19! But Romney doesn't have a chance, huh?

Even more interesting to me is the fact that when you add Gary Johnson to the equation, Obama's lead over Romney drops from 5 to 4 points, 42-38-13%.

[豚FLY]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

Do the math. 5 + 7 = 12.

[Lіef]

Pretty hilarious that Republicans are suddenly on the PPP bandwagon.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

I think there are several states that are legitimately tightening or tighter than they should be (like Iowa, for example) and that Obama's pretty indisputably going to win, assuming he does, rather more narrowly this time than in 2008 if things keep going as they've been going (i.e. assuming no sudden freak bull market or dead girl/live boy in Romney's unreleased tax returns or something), but I'm not buying a ten-point swing in New Mexico.

[MorningInAmerica]

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

Do the math. 5 + 7 = 12.

So I believe the answer to that is NO, a Person.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm thinking that PPP is probably tweaking numbers a bit because of complaints over bias.

In other words, they caved to the Tea Party like the rest of the media.

[豚FLY]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

Do the math. 5 + 7 = 12.

So the answer is no, then?

Look, this is a very easy concept: Some people who voted in 2008 will not vote in 2012, and some people who didn't vote in 2008 will vote in 2012.

[krazen1211]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

[豚FLY]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

If only 15% of Democrats were pro-Bush turncoats, Romney won't get 21% of Democrats now.

[krazen1211]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004

3 factual statements of course, which is why this is a junk poll. But that does not mean such a blanket statement is wise.

Romney, if we were to campaign in New Mexico, would attempt to acquire the votes of religious New Mexico Democrats by focusing on the issue of marriage.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004

3 factual statements of course, which is why this is a junk poll. But that does not mean such a blanket statement is wise.

Romney, if we were to campaign in New Mexico, would attempt to acquire the votes of religious New Mexico Democrats by focusing on the issue of marriage.

I'm sure he would, but I'm not sure that would be wise, since Romney's core competency is talking about the economy and he's distinctly suffered from being drawn off that message in the past. He'd run into diminishing returns pretty quickly.

Romney simply isn't the sort of candidate to appeal to New Mexico. Bush distinctly was. Bush was also considerably more likable than Romney in general, and had the good fortune of facing two Democrats considerably less likable than Obama.

[JulioMadrid]

Bleh. Romney shouldn't even try to make NM close. Carrying Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, and even Wisconsin, is easier. He doesn't need NM to win. And I think Obama will finally carry this state by >10%