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Author Topic: VA: Rasmussen: Kaine barely ahead  (Read 980 times)
Miles
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« on: July 19, 2012, 02:02:45 pm »
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New Poll: Virginia Senator by Rasmussen on 2012-7-17

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2012, 02:04:08 pm »
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Kaine has been tarnished with the foul stench of the national Democratic party.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2012, 02:13:06 pm »
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Whoever wins the state wins this seat.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2012, 02:58:59 pm »
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Whoever wins the state wins this seat.
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.



He hath put down the mighty from their seat, and hath exalted the humble. He hath filled the hungry with good things; and the rich He hath sent empty away.
Miles
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2012, 04:44:15 pm »
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I can see a lot of Romney/Kaine ballots in places like VA-09 though.
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2012, 05:00:40 pm »
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Rassy having Kaine up by 1 is good news.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2012, 05:04:28 pm »
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I partially agree with Miles: Allen can only really relax if Romney's winning VA by 3-4.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2012, 05:21:19 pm »
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I partially agree with Miles: Allen can only really relax if Romney's winning VA by 3-4.

That runs contrary to several months of Virginia polls where George Allen has consistently performed better than Mitt Romney.


I find it very funny that whomever entered these polls entered them as 'Almost Tied', and 'Kaine barely ahead', respectively.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2012, 05:25:42 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
Niemeyerite
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2012, 06:26:07 pm »
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People said back in 2010 that if Harry Reid won in NV, so would Dina Titus. So, I think Obama could carry VA and Kaine lose at the same time... But it is unlikely.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2012, 09:18:26 pm »
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I partially agree with Miles: Allen can only really relax if Romney's winning VA by 3-4.

That runs contrary to several months of Virginia polls where George Allen has consistently performed better than Mitt Romney.


I find it very funny that whomever entered these polls entered them as 'Almost Tied', and 'Kaine barely ahead', respectively.

Good, I'm glad you noticed that. I did that just for you!

There are still at least a handful of counties in western VA were Obama ran noticeably behind their Democratic average.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2012, 07:04:18 am »
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I partially agree with Miles: Allen can only really relax if Romney's winning VA by 3-4.

That runs contrary to several months of Virginia polls where George Allen has consistently performed better than Mitt Romney.


I find it very funny that whomever entered these polls entered them as 'Almost Tied', and 'Kaine barely ahead', respectively.

Good, I'm glad you noticed that. I did that just for you!

There are still at least a handful of counties in western VA were Obama ran noticeably behind their Democratic average.



Of course. There are still a handful of counties in eastern VA where Obama ran noticeably ahead of their Democratic average. I call them Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William.

That will be where Allen goes for extra votes and likely why he will get 2% more of the vote than Mitt Romney.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2012, 09:07:18 am »
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Of course. There are still a handful of counties in eastern VA where Obama ran noticeably ahead of their Democratic average. I call them Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William.

But what are their real names?
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MD
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2012, 04:15:31 pm »
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My gut tells me that Allen wins this by 3 to 4.  A lot was made in 06 regarding his gaffes but he was barely beaten in a Dem wave year.   The R's seem to be motivated so turnout on that side will help Allen. 
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mondale84
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2012, 08:40:30 pm »
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My gut tells me that Allen wins this by 3 to 4.  A lot was made in 06 regarding his gaffes but he was barely beaten in a Dem wave year.   The R's seem to be motivated so turnout on that side will help Allen. 

Allen was the incumbent and Virginia has changed a lot since '06.
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rbt48
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2012, 09:52:40 pm »
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Anyone rember how similar the results were in TX in 1978 with Clements' Governorship win and Tower's Senate win?  They both won by something like 18,000 out of 2+ million votes.  This was the race where Tower refused to shake Krueger's hand at a banquet.

I imagine that Virginia could come down to a similar result with both winners prevailing by similar margins.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2012, 09:55:31 pm »
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Such a scenario would, IMO, slightly favor Kaine because he has a better chance at nabbing R crossovers than Allen does with Ds.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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