Obama spends $100 million on Bain ads, falls behind in polls

[WhyteRain]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who was it that said that with the economy like it is, no one's going to give a damn what Romney did at Bain 15 years ago?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Obama is trying to lock Romney out of the electoral college by making the swing voters in OH suspicious of Romney and thus far more likely to default to Obama. It is very difficult to make up for OH elsewhere and Romney has struggled there for the last several months. It is precious little to show for $100 million but that very little may indeed be what gives Obama the election, even if it is just 2% or less of the vote that has been shifted.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It's really too early to tell if they were successful or a failure yet. But look at these.
Purple Strategies Poll
Hearing something new about Romney
made you...
More favorable: 26% Less favorable: 38% No impact: 34%
Not sure: 2%
Obviously Romney's favorables are falling in the swing states.
The Bain ads are focused in the swing states in the rust belt, not nationally. When you look at swing state polls, Obama is ahead 80% of the time.

The SWBs ads ran from May to August 2004. Kerry was slightly ahead at this point in 2004. Bush took the lead in the fall because Kerry's favorables were falling. This explains it well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/are-bain-attacks-a-success-or-a-flop-still-too-early-to-say/2012/07/19/gJQAy9SrvW_blog.html

[krazen1211]

It's really too early to tell if they were successful or a failure yet. But look at these.
Purple Strategies Poll
Hearing something new about Romney
made you...
More favorable: 26% Less favorable: 38% No impact: 34%
Not sure: 2%
Obviously Romney's favorables are falling in the swing states.
The Bain ads are focused in the swing states in the rust belt, not nationally. When you look at swing state polls, Obama is ahead 80% of the time.

The SWBs ads ran from May to August 2004. Kerry was slightly ahead at this point in 2004. Bush took the lead in the fall because Kerry's favorables were falling. This explains it well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/are-bain-attacks-a-success-or-a-flop-still-too-early-to-say/2012/07/19/gJQAy9SrvW_blog.html

Uh, nope. Sargent is just making stuff up, as the SWB TV ads were primarily in August 2004.


http://www.opensecrets.org/527s/527events.php?id=61
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Swift_Boat_Veterans_for_Truth#SBVT_television_advertisements


Bush took the lead shortly after the last SWB ad on August 31st.

[Yank2133]

Obama is trying to lock Romney out of the electoral college by making the swing voters in OH suspicious of Romney and thus far more likely to default to Obama. It is very difficult to make up for OH elsewhere and Romney has struggled there for the last several months. It is precious little to show for $100 million but that very little may indeed be what gives Obama the election, even if it is just 2% or less of the vote that has been shifted.

Pretty much this.

Mitt has to win Ohio, it is hard to see path to the White House without it. The ads won't help Obama favorability and likely will give Mitt a few points in the National Polls, but it will be worthwhile if Obama locks up Ohio.(and Iowa for that matter......).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It's really too early to tell if they were successful or a failure yet. But look at these.
Purple Strategies Poll
Hearing something new about Romney
made you...
More favorable: 26% Less favorable: 38% No impact: 34%
Not sure: 2%
Obviously Romney's favorables are falling in the swing states.
The Bain ads are focused in the swing states in the rust belt, not nationally. When you look at swing state polls, Obama is ahead 80% of the time.

The SWBs ads ran from May to August 2004. Kerry was slightly ahead at this point in 2004. Bush took the lead in the fall because Kerry's favorables were falling. This explains it well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/are-bain-attacks-a-success-or-a-flop-still-too-early-to-say/2012/07/19/gJQAy9SrvW_blog.html

Uh, nope. Sargent is just making stuff up, as the SWB TV ads were primarily in August 2004.


http://www.opensecrets.org/527s/527events.php?id=61
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Swift_Boat_Veterans_for_Truth#SBVT_television_advertisements


Bush took the lead shortly after the last SWB ad on August 31st.

Dude, that's what we just said. The Swift Boat Ads ran from May to late August, and Bush took the lead in the fall (no one pays attention till the fall) because Kerry's favor abilities fell. They seemed primarily in August because that's when we really noticed, but they ran from May til then.

[krazen1211]

It's really too early to tell if they were successful or a failure yet. But look at these.
Purple Strategies Poll
Hearing something new about Romney
made you...
More favorable: 26% Less favorable: 38% No impact: 34%
Not sure: 2%
Obviously Romney's favorables are falling in the swing states.
The Bain ads are focused in the swing states in the rust belt, not nationally. When you look at swing state polls, Obama is ahead 80% of the time.

The SWBs ads ran from May to August 2004. Kerry was slightly ahead at this point in 2004. Bush took the lead in the fall because Kerry's favorables were falling. This explains it well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/are-bain-attacks-a-success-or-a-flop-still-too-early-to-say/2012/07/19/gJQAy9SrvW_blog.html

Uh, nope. Sargent is just making stuff up, as the SWB TV ads were primarily in August 2004.


http://www.opensecrets.org/527s/527events.php?id=61
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Swift_Boat_Veterans_for_Truth#SBVT_television_advertisements


Bush took the lead shortly after the last SWB ad on August 31st.

Dude, that's what we just said. The Swift Boat Ads ran from May to late August, and Bush took the lead in the fall (no one pays attention till the fall) because Kerry's favor abilities fell. They seemed primarily in August because that's when we really noticed, but they ran from May til then.

In August 2004, SBVT aired its first television advertisement, accusing Kerry of lying about his war record, in three swing states.


If you saw ads in May, June, and July, you were the only one as it does not line up with the fact pattern from sourcewatch.

[Zioneer]

I think the Bain ads are more of a narrative setting action, than a poll-centered action. Obama is using the Bain ads to creative a narrative of Romney as a heartless corporate big-wig who cares nothing for American jobs. He wants to associate that narrative with Romney, even if it hurts his poll numbers in the short term, because if he can get that narrative to stick, then Obama can hit back a lot harder than if Romney was undefined.

[Lincoln Republican]

The Bain ads show one thing for certain about Obama -

Obama is a classic old style, corrupt, lying Chicago politician, surrounded by classic old style, corrupt, lying Chicago type toadys and yes men.

The Bain ads, obviously, were designed to take attention away from the fact that Obama is completely in over his head in doing anything positive about the Obama recession economy, and how completely amateurish Obama and his toadys are of handling the economy, which is spiralling further and further out of control under amateur Obama's kindergarten level stewardship.

Besides, with Portman on the ticket as VP, I believe Romney will ultimately win Ohio.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Besides, with Portman on the ticket as VP, I believe Romney will ultimately win Ohio.

You do realize that putting someone on the ticket, doesn't give them that state. It's not the 1960s anymore. And a majority of Ohions don't even know who Portman is. 59 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1746

[Lincoln Republican]

But once he's on the ticket they will sure know who he is.

[pepper11]

The Bain ads show one thing for certain about Obama -

Obama is a classic old style, corrupt, lying Chicago politician, surrounded by classic old style, corrupt, lying Chicago type toadys and yes men.

The Bain ads, obviously, were designed to take attention away from the fact that Obama is completely in over his head in doing anything positive about the Obama recession economy, and how completely amateurish Obama and his toadys are of handling the economy, which is spiralling further and further out of control under amateur Obama's kindergarten level stewardship.

The Bain attacks are working great....for Romney. Keep em going.

[WhyteRain]

I think the Bain ads are more of a narrative setting action, than a poll-centered action. Obama is using the Bain ads to creative a narrative of Romney as a heartless corporate big-wig who cares nothing for American jobs. He wants to associate that narrative with Romney, even if it hurts his poll numbers in the short term, because if he can get that narrative to stick, then Obama can hit back a lot harder than if Romney was undefined.

So it's all unfolding according to plan?

[Sbane]

The Bain attacks are an Ohio special. If Obama can gain a point or two out of Ohio while not losing ground nationwide, these attacks would have been successful. I don't see any evidence of Obama losing ground. Indeed you can make the case he is gaining ground since the economy has weakened since the spring but Obama's position has not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

But once he's on the ticket they will sure know who he is.

They'll know who he is then, sure.  But it won't affect anyone's vote (certainly not enough people to be statistically significant).  For a running mate to help a candidate win their state, he or she has to have significant pre-existing name recognition and reservoir of goodwill within the state.  Portman has neither of these things and simply being named as Romney's running mate isn't going to magically elevate him to the level of someone like George Voinovich or John Glenn in the eyes of Ohioans.  Even Sherrod Brown (despite being extremely unpopular in some Republican circles and more polarizing than someone like Glenn) is better known and far more respected than Portman.  The two most common responses if you asked an Ohioan who Rob Portman is would be "I don't know" and "I think he's running for something."  The bottom line is that Portman would be about as helpful to Romney in Ohio as Pawlenty would be in Minnesota.

[Lincoln Republican]

On the other hand, Portman could, conceivably, by the time of the election, do for Romney in Ohio what LBJ did for JFK in Texas.

[milhouse24]

Besides, with Portman on the ticket as VP, I believe Romney will ultimately win Ohio.

You do realize that putting someone on the ticket, doesn't give them that state. It's not the 1960s anymore. And a majority of Ohions don't even know who Portman is. 59 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1746

If a majority of Ohio citizens don't know who Portman is, then how did a Majority of Ohio citizens vote for Portman in 2010 ?!?  Lol.

I think someone with a higher name recognition like Thune might be more useful in Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia.

[Lief 🗽]

If a majority of Ohio citizens don't know who Portman is, then how did a Majority of Ohio citizens vote for Portman in 2010 ?!?  Lol.

Technically a majority of Ohio citizens did not vote for Portman in 2010.

[ajb]

There is no evidence to suggest that Obama is falling behind in the polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

[pepper11]

There is no evidence to suggest that Obama is falling behind in the polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

Sure looks like that $100 mil worked just great. It's a microcosm of his domestic spending.

[Sbane]

Hmm, how much have Romney and the Republican groups combined spent? Considering the economy is deteriorating and the numbers aren't moving towards Romney, it looks like the Republicans are more wasteful on spending than the Democrats!

[ajb]

Hmm, how much have Romney and the Republican groups combined spent? Considering the economy is deteriorating and the numbers aren't moving towards Romney, it looks like the Republicans are more wasteful on spending than the Democrats!

Exactly. Obama doesn't need the numbers to change in his favor, although it would obviously be nice if they did. Romney needs the numbers to change in his favor.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

On the other hand, Portman could, conceivably, by the time of the election, do for Romney in Ohio what LBJ did for JFK in Texas.

People knew who LBJ was and he was popular in Texas. It does not work like that anymore. Just because Romney'son the ticket doesn't mean he's gonna bet Michigan and Massachussetts. John Edwards didn't give John Kerry North Carolina back in 2004. Al Gore didn't win Tennesse in 2000.  Jack Kemp didn't help Bob Dole in New York back in '96. Lloyd Bentsen didn't help Mike Dukakis in Texas back in '88 either. Running mates just don't tip the balance in states anymore.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The hackishness is strong in this thread.

[Ebowed]

Obama recession economy

Goodness gracious.