The state of the Electoral College - 22.07.2012

[Tender Branson]

This is what "Real Clear Politics", "The Huffington Post Pollster", "electoral-college.com" and my thread in the Atlas poll section shows for today:



332-206 for Obama

electoral-vote.com is actually showing 342-196 today, but that has to do with the fact that they use the PPP poll (Obama+1) in Missouri as their latest poll for the state, when in fact Rasmussen had Romney leading a few days after the PPP poll was released. I already sent them an e-mail today so they can correct that mistake.

HuffPo's Pollster uses another model with a few "toss-up" states, but if you click on these "toss-up" states and you assign them to the one who's leading in each state, you also get the 332-206 number for Obama.

RCP and my prediction in the poll section are identical.

So, this is what the electoral landscape looks like today, on July 22.

[Clinton1996]

Funny, as of today, Romney has only picked up Indiana and North Carolina.

[Tender Branson]

The Bush/Kerry race on July 22, 2004:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/jul/jul22.html

332-195-11 Kerry

...

The Obama/McCain race on July 22, 2008:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul22.html

312-199-27 Obama

[CultureKing]

The Bush/Kerry race on July 22, 2004:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/jul/jul22.html

332-195-11 Kerry

...

The Obama/McCain race on July 22, 2008:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul22.html

312-199-27 Obama

Hmm... Is there usually a pro-challenger or pro-democratic bias in polling during the summer months? I could see either being possible.

[Clinton1996]

The Bush/Kerry race on July 22, 2004:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/jul/jul22.html

332-195-11 Kerry

...

The Obama/McCain race on July 22, 2008:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul22.html

312-199-27 Obama

Hmm... Is there usually a pro-challenger or pro-democratic bias in polling during the summer months? I could see either being possible.

No, John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate and the Dems had their convention in July of 2004.
In 2008 Obama was probably still getting his "nomination bump" kinda like Romney got his in April and May.

[Tender Branson]

The Bush/Kerry race on July 22, 2004:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/jul/jul22.html

332-195-11 Kerry

...

The Obama/McCain race on July 22, 2008:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul22.html

312-199-27 Obama

Hmm... Is there usually a pro-challenger or pro-democratic bias in polling during the summer months? I could see either being possible.

No, John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate and the Dems had their convention in July of 2004.
In 2008 Obama was probably still getting his "nomination bump" kinda like Romney got his in April and May.

Yes, that.

[asexual trans victimologist]

If anything, summer polling is usually slightly more Republican than the final stretch.

[pbrower2a]

If anything, summer polling is usually slightly more Republican than the final stretch.

Since about 1990 perhaps. Democrats tend to do much of their vote drives on college campuses in the fall semester. Such would have backfired in the 1980s, when young voters were more conservative than older voters... but that is over.  Many people also start getting some suasion from union vote drives.

These days "likely voters" is a more R sample than "registered voters". 

[Tender Branson]

electoral-vote.com is actually showing 342-196 today, but that has to do with the fact that they use the PPP poll (Obama+1) in Missouri as their latest poll for the state, when in fact Rasmussen had Romney leading a few days after the PPP poll was released. I already sent them an e-mail today so they can correct that mistake.

I got a response e-mail from them, and today they have corrected the mistake. MO is now Romney+7 and they also have a 332-206 map today.