Why is Obama not trying to win SC ?
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  Why is Obama not trying to win SC ?
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Author Topic: Why is Obama not trying to win SC ?  (Read 2366 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 21, 2012, 12:08:39 AM »

The state would have been quite close I guess, if he actually campaigned there after his 2008 primary win and set up a strong organisation there.

Also, the state has about 30% Blacks, and in recent years has seen many immigrants from other states, making the Whites somewhat more likely to vote for Obama. He probably only needs about 25-30% of Whites to win the state.

Also, the last polls showed a tied race, either Obama ahead by a few points or Romney only ahead by about 5.

Also, Romney did quite badly there in the primary.

Also, Vincent Shaheen did quite well against Niki Haley there in a very Republican year.

...

I would definitely set up a few offices there and invest 5 million in ads and see if the polls move close to a tie.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2012, 12:14:10 AM »

Is South Carolina not at least partially in the North Carolina and Virginia media markets? I'd think they'd be seeing quite a few ads already, no? I could be completely wrong on this.

But I'll concede I've been hoping Obama will leave South Carolina be. I think Obama could flip it if he campaigned hard enough.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2012, 12:18:28 AM »

He probably only needs about 25-30% of Whites to win the state.

Well, more like 32-34% after looking at the 2008 exit poll. He got 26% there in 2008.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2012, 12:21:37 AM »

Is South Carolina not at least partially in the North Carolina and Virginia media markets? I'd think they'd be seeing quite a few ads already, no? I could be completely wrong on this.


A chunk of northern SC (in SC-05) is in the Charlotte media market.

I'd say Obama should try to win GA before going for SC.

He probably only needs about 25-30% of Whites to win the state.

Well, more like 32-34% after looking at the 2008 exit poll. He got 26% there in 2008.

He isn't going to increase by that much because of his party's War on Whites.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2012, 01:57:53 AM »

Is South Carolina not at least partially in the North Carolina and Virginia media markets? I'd think they'd be seeing quite a few ads already, no? I could be completely wrong on this.


A chunk of northern SC (in SC-05) is in the Charlotte media market.

I'd say Obama should try to win GA before going for SC.

He probably only needs about 25-30% of Whites to win the state.

Well, more like 32-34% after looking at the 2008 exit poll. He got 26% there in 2008.

He isn't going to increase by that much because of his party's War on Whites.

I assume (hope) you're being ironic...
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2012, 02:09:21 AM »

I have a hard time understanding the "War on Whites" idea, especially when Obama has actually been pretty lackluster on African American issues. It's not like he's really been a champion of any one group. That's why whites aren't voting for him: his percieved incompetence across the board. African Americans would break less for Obama if they didn't have an affinity with him that supercedes politics.

That's not to imply they still wouldn't turn out for a white Obama... he'd just lose enough of their support for this so-called ethnic divide to be less of an issue.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2012, 06:23:27 AM »

It went for McCain by 9%; it's probably out of reach unless Romney collapses.
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2012, 06:47:11 AM »

That'll be a worthwhile target a generation from now..   
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2012, 08:18:51 AM »

Obama is not trying to win SC because he knows he cannot win it.
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California8429
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2012, 10:11:32 AM »

As someone who thinks Obama is going to win this election, he's going to be losing states, not picking them up. The latest south carolina polling was from many months ago wasn't it?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2012, 04:34:51 PM »

Is South Carolina not at least partially in the North Carolina and Virginia Georgia media markets? I'd think they'd be seeing quite a few ads already, no? I could be completely wrong on this.

But I'll concede I've been hoping Obama will leave South Carolina be. I think Obama could flip it if he campaigned hard enough.

The problem is that South Carolina has a polarized electorate with only a small middle and more Republicans than Democrats.  Obama needs to get at a minimum 60% of the independents and more like two-thirds to have a realistic shot.  However, as others have noted, a good deal of the State overlaps with neighboring media markets.  The Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, Aiken-Augusta, and Savannah markets all have considerable coverage.  Charlotte and GSA are getting heavy media buys as part of the North Carolina campaign, but they are in fairly Republican areas of the State.  Georgia is a better target than South Carolina, but I haven't seen any evidence of campaigning in the CSRA (Central Savannah River Area) market and probably not in Savannah either.  Once Georgia is in play, the Midlands, Charleston, and Pee Dee markets are all small enough that it might be worth spending money there if Obama can afford to go on offense rather than defense, especially the Pee Dee if he thinks he can help the Democrats snag the newly created 7th District there.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2012, 06:27:51 PM »

Lol at this thread.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2012, 06:30:26 PM »

Is South Carolina not at least partially in the North Carolina and Virginia media markets? I'd think they'd be seeing quite a few ads already, no? I could be completely wrong on this.


A chunk of northern SC (in SC-05) is in the Charlotte media market.

I'd say Obama should try to win GA before going for SC.

He probably only needs about 25-30% of Whites to win the state.

Well, more like 32-34% after looking at the 2008 exit poll. He got 26% there in 2008.

He isn't going to increase by that much because of his party's War on Whites.

You are a very smart man, Miles.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2012, 06:30:45 PM »

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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2012, 06:34:02 PM »

Obama doesn't need SC to win the election, and those funds would be more useful elsewhere.

SC could easily go Democratic within the next few decades, but not any time soon.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2012, 06:36:17 PM »

Urgh, the idea that South Carolina and Georgia are now purely toss-ups, that Obama will pick up this year, is ridiculous. In two cycles or so, with the right kind of Democrat, then yes, they could be in play. But at the moment they are beyond the President to pick up. If he picks up anything in '12, it'll be Arizona or Missouri.
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Devils30
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2012, 06:52:24 PM »

If you look at Nate Silver's analysis on FiveThirtyEight...SC is among the least elastic states. It has very few swing voters as it's populated by blacks and white evangelicals for the most part. Obama is a high floor here (42-43%) but a very low ceiling (45-48% at best).
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Holmes
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« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2012, 06:55:59 PM »

Who cares? Even if it might have or soon have more favourable demographics for the Democrats, why would they even try? The electorate would not be responsive to the Democratic platform and it would be more of a hassle than anything else.
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ajb
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« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2012, 07:24:16 PM »

If you look at the 2008 exit polls, McCain won whites under 30 in South Carolina, 74-24, even though Obama won voters under 30 overall, 55-44. Nonwhite voters are a much bigger share of the under-30 vote in SC, obviously, but young whites in SC didn't like Obama in 2008, so they're not going to like him now.

In NC, by contrast, Obama won whites under 30, 56-44.

In terms of racial demographics, SC is getting less white (down from about 69% in 2000, to 67% in 2010), but also less black (down from 30% to 28%). The Hispanic population is increasing, but that's cancelled out by the declining African-American share, given that not all Hispanic immigrants are citizens, and that they vote Democratic at a much lower rate than African-Americans.

I don't think there's any reason to think that South Carolina is becoming demographically more friendly to the Democrats.
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« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2012, 01:20:22 AM »

Urgh, the idea that South Carolina and Georgia are now purely toss-ups, that Obama will pick up this year, is ridiculous. In two cycles or so, with the right kind of Democrat, then yes, they could be in play. But at the moment they are beyond the President to pick up. If he picks up anything in '12, it'll be Arizona or Missouri.
I wouldn't count Arizona as anywhere close to Obama.  Electoral-vote has AZ as solid Romney, probably not going to be competitive this election cycle.  Missouri is probably the same way.
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