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Author Topic: What will be the closest state  (Read 1324 times)
WhyteRain
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« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2012, 07:12:38 pm »
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Since someone already said Oregon, I'll say Minnesota.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2012, 07:13:21 pm »
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Florida and NC.
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« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2012, 07:30:25 pm »
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Florida and Virginia
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« Reply #28 on: July 20, 2012, 08:51:33 pm »
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It'll be Virginia. In fact, I think this state is the only potential stumbling block for Mitt.
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« Reply #29 on: July 20, 2012, 09:56:21 pm »
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Iowa or Virginia. If Romney wins WI then he's already past 270.

Obviously, re the last part.  You'd pick WI if you think the election would be a big Romney win.

I picked it but I don't think Mitt will have more than 280-290 EVs.
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« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2012, 10:03:33 pm »
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Wow Nap, are you really that pessimistic? Anyway, I actually think it will be one of the two smaller states i consider "wild cards"--Nevada or New Hampshire. I have a hunch that Obama will take the former and Romney the latter. Based on polling and Obama's strategy, I suspect he'll do better in Ohio than Virginia, though which one of them is closer depends on who wins.
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« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2012, 10:08:04 pm »
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Florida and NC.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2012, 10:19:56 pm »
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Wow Nap, are you really that pessimistic? Anyway, I actually think it will be one of the two smaller states i consider "wild cards"--Nevada or New Hampshire. I have a hunch that Obama will take the former and Romney the latter. Based on polling and Obama's strategy, I suspect he'll do better in Ohio than Virginia, though which one of them is closer depends on who wins.

I think those could be good picks.  I still think Oregon and Minnesota are better.
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« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2012, 10:46:11 pm »
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Right now Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida are likely to be the closest States.  Romney needs to change that to Ohio and Virgina if he hopes to win, and he has the time to change things, so this election is far from over.
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« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2012, 11:46:02 pm »
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Iowa, Virginia or Florida.

One of those three, IMO.
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« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2012, 02:24:41 am »
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Yes but I also think the trends in this particular state couldn't be clearer.

The thing is that there could be a strong trend away from Obama and he could still win. He won it by 14 while winning nationally only by 7 so there is a lot of room for the trend to occur and not flip the state. I don't think the state flips unless Obama loses by about 2-3 points.
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« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2012, 04:35:52 pm »
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Florida or Virginia.
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2012, 06:24:50 pm »
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Yes but I also think the trends in this particular state couldn't be clearer.

The thing is that there could be a strong trend away from Obama and he could still win. He won it by 14 while winning nationally only by 7 so there is a lot of room for the trend to occur and not flip the state. I don't think the state flips unless Obama loses by about 2-3 points.

Im not saying it will flip though, and Ohio could end up closer than I expect as well.
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« Reply #38 on: July 22, 2012, 08:06:28 am »
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Florida, Virginia, or New Mexico.
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« Reply #39 on: July 22, 2012, 09:04:40 am »
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I vote for Ohio. The state has been pretty static in presidential races. Va is hard to predict and I can't see Obama winning FL under likely conditions (although I suppose he could lose narrowly).

LOL at Minnesota.
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« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2012, 09:05:33 am »
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In absolute numbers, it's very likely to be NH. But not by percentage.
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« Reply #41 on: July 22, 2012, 12:37:16 pm »
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North Carolina.  The whole marriage amendment passed because the only people who turned out to vote were motivated by political pastors on the Sunday before the vote.  In the general election, the other half of the electorate will be out to vote.  Current polling shows the state sits on a razor thin margin, and I don't see that changing.  Obama's convention bump will obviously overly manifest itself in North Carolina, and on election day I doubt Romney will have rallied enough to overturn the Democratic advantage.  In other words, Obama will hold most of his 2008 states (sans Indiana and maybe even not Florida).
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« Reply #42 on: July 22, 2012, 03:37:01 pm »
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« Reply #43 on: July 22, 2012, 03:56:15 pm »
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Closest to the national average -- Ohio or Colorado. Such will hold for a bare Obama win or loss in the Electoral College.

220 EV for Obama -- Michigan or Pennsylvania.

250 EV for Obama -- Iowa or Wisconsin (shades of 2004)!

310 EV for Obama -- Florida.

370 EV for Obama -- Indiana or Missouri... maybe Arizona.

(Nobody has won between 57.1% (Truman 1948) and 65.3% (McKinley 1900) of the electoral vote since 1880, so if Mitt Romney sees himself losing  323-215 he is going to do some gambles and risk losing big or getting much closer. That is how John McCain acted in 2008, and he ended up losing badly by betting everything on Pennsylvania and losing a raft of states in the process.

400 for Obama -- Georgia or South Carolina.

410 to 450 EV for Obama -- Texas. 38 electoral votes in that state alone, a giant state with no good analogue.

Beyond that I can't make too many distinctions between the states.     




 
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« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2012, 05:56:49 pm »
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I think WI is in the hunt for the closest state by percentage without a Mittens knock out punch, because I suspect it will trend Pub - just like Iowa. As to which state it actually will be, well that is idle speculation. I have no idea. It could be one of several mentioned.
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« Reply #45 on: July 22, 2012, 07:55:12 pm »
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Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.
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« Reply #46 on: July 22, 2012, 08:00:05 pm »
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Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.
So...Minnesota is more a tossup than Virginia, Florida, or Ohio?

Virginia or Florida imo.
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« Reply #47 on: July 22, 2012, 08:13:51 pm »
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Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.
So...Minnesota is more a tossup than Virginia, Florida, or Ohio?

Virginia or Florida imo.

The question has nothing to do with what you think the toss up states are now. The question asked what the closest state will be on election day. Its basically another way to ask how close you think the election is going to be. Right now Obama is probably up to 1-2 nationally. Based on that, I think Virginia would be the closest state. But as the national vote changes the "toss ups" change.  I expect the popular vote to swing to about Romney + 4 by election day.  That is a 10 point improvement compared to McCain. And McCain lost Minnesota by 10. So thats why I picked Minnesota.
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« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2012, 08:22:25 pm »
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Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.
So...Minnesota is more a tossup than Virginia, Florida, or Ohio?

Virginia or Florida imo.

The question has nothing to do with what you think the toss up states are now. The question asked what the closest state will be on election day. Its basically another way to ask how close you think the election is going to be. Right now Obama is probably up to 1-2 nationally. Based on that, I think Virginia would be the closest state. But as the national vote changes the "toss ups" change.  I expect the popular vote to swing to about Romney + 4 by election day.  That is a 10 point improvement compared to McCain. And McCain lost Minnesota by 10. So thats why I picked Minnesota.
If Romney gains, I see PA being closer than MN. I guess we'll agree to disagree though.
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« Reply #49 on: July 22, 2012, 10:28:27 pm »
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Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.
So...Minnesota is more a tossup than Virginia, Florida, or Ohio?

Virginia or Florida imo.

The question has nothing to do with what you think the toss up states are now. The question asked what the closest state will be on election day. Its basically another way to ask how close you think the election is going to be. Right now Obama is probably up to 1-2 nationally. Based on that, I think Virginia would be the closest state. But as the national vote changes the "toss ups" change.  I expect the popular vote to swing to about Romney + 4 by election day.  That is a 10 point improvement compared to McCain. And McCain lost Minnesota by 10. So thats why I picked Minnesota.
If Romney gains, I see PA being closer than MN. I guess we'll agree to disagree though.

While the early indications are that Romney will have a bigger swing in the Midwest than in the rest of the country, and Minnesota being a tossup in November is not impossible, if Minnesota is a tossup, Romney will at least 300 or so EV, and 350 or so is more likely.
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