Florida SUSA: Obama 48 Romney 43

[Minnesota Mike]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4e06e26-835c-4f08-8c04-24a8c4975bc3&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal state of Florida today, 07/20/12, three months till early voting begins, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa. In one school of thought, Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

[MilesC56]

This gives Obama the lead in 4 of the last 5 FL polls.

[Minnesota Mike]

Republican leaning sample

Rep 40
Dem 39
Other 21

2008 Exits

Rep 34
Dem 37
Other 29

Also weird that the same poll has Connie Mack (R) up  48-42 in the Senate race. Either the Prez or Senate numbers would seem to be off.

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama's winning 86% of his base while Romney's only winning 81%. Obama is also up 11 points with Indepenents in Florida (which I don't buy).

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama's winning 86% of his base while Romney's only winning 81%. Obama is also up 11 points with Indepenents in Florida (which I don't buy).

Lot's of Hispanic Independents in Florida. For whatever reason voter registration stats show that Hispanics register as Independents at a greater percentage than other voters (around 30% of registered Hispanics are  Independents in Florida).

[ajc0918]

The Bain attacks are working.

And this comes at a time when Conservative Super PACs are flooding the airwaves with ads.

[Nagas]

What were 2010 exits for Governor and Senate?

[MorningInAmerica]

36D/36R/29I for both races.

[Nagas]

36D/36R/29I for both races.

Seems this poll is overestimating the support of both parties it seems, although Republicans a bit more than Democrats. Still, I think this is a bit of an outlier. I believe Florida is tied at the moment, so anything too far in support of either candidate would be suspect.

[pepper11]

The Bain attacks are working.

And this comes at a time when Conservative Super PACs are flooding the airwaves with ads.

Florida has minimal Priority USA / Bain advertising. Hopefully they will up the ante so Romney can close the gap.

[MilesC56]

Entered.

[ajc0918]

The Bain attacks are working.

And this comes at a time when Conservative Super PACs are flooding the airwaves with ads.

Florida has minimal Priority USA / Bain advertising. Hopefully they will up the ante so Romney can close the gap.

That's not true, Priorities USA ads play in the Tampa market all the time.

[Chaddyr23]

Woah the poster for me is another UF student!?

Anyways, Obama's got a slight edge here based on what I get from my family members and up here. Romney's just not energizing the cookie cutter Republicans yet.

[ajc0918]

Woah the poster for me is another UF student!?

Yeah! Woo Go Gators!

and Go Obama!

[True Federalist]

The question about Vice Presidential picks indicates Rice would definitely create some buzz among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.  Whether that buzz would actually translate into votes come November is doubtful.  Rice is a policy wonk, not a politician.

[MorningInAmerica]

The Bain attacks are working.

And this comes at a time when Conservative Super PACs are flooding the airwaves with ads.

Florida has minimal Priority USA / Bain advertising. Hopefully they will up the ante so Romney can close the gap.

That's not true, Priorities USA ads play in the Tampa market all the time.

You can both research exactly how much money Crossroads, Priorities USA, Obama, Romney, and every other PAC have spent each week for the last year in all 210 media markets here. Saves a lot of arguing (can't argue with facts): http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

[pepper11]

Can you click on individual markets? Doesnt seem to work.

[ajc0918]

You can both research exactly how much money Crossroads, Priorities USA, Obama, Romney, and every other PAC have spent each week for the last year in all 210 media markets here. Saves a lot of arguing (can't argue with facts): http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

Thanks for this. I can't find a list of the market with the most spent, but I can't find another market that has seen more spending than Tampa. $13.9 million in cumulative spending. The closest I can find is the Cleveland, OH market at $12.3 million.

[MorningInAmerica]

Can you click on individual markets? Doesnt seem to work.

Yes, you can click on each individual market and see that market's cumulative spending, and spending for each week. It works for me. Have no idea why it wouldn't for you. Your flash player up to date?

[pepper11]

Yeah I get cumulative spending in each market but it doesnt break each market down.

[MorningInAmerica]

Thanks for this. I can't find a list of the market with the most spent, but I can't find another market that has seen more spending than Tampa. $13.9 million in cumulative spending. The closest I can find is the Cleveland, OH market at $12.3 million.

There are a few glitches with the site. It helps to refresh the page after every action you take. At the very top where it says "Cumulative spending" on the left and "Weekly spending" on the right...this allows you to switch between the two views. On the far left, it will give you the cumulative spending for each candidate and Super Pac. If you switch to "weekly spending mode", click on a candidate/PAC, and the total it spent for last week will appear where the cumulative spending total appeared (right above the map on the left). The orange colored bars above the map allow you to select which week you can view, dating all the way back to November of last year. The site takes a bit of investigating to get use to, but once you get it, it's an incredible resource. They can be somewhat slow to update at times. For example, right now, the most up to date week they have information for is July 2-8, 2012. I'll be surprised if it isn't updated very soon.

[MorningInAmerica]

According to the site, last week the Charlotte, NC market saw the most spending with $939K. Tampa, Florida is second with $817K, followed closely in third by the Cleveland, Ohio market, $813K

[Smash255]

You can both research exactly how much money Crossroads, Priorities USA, Obama, Romney, and every other PAC have spent each week for the last year in all 210 media markets here. Saves a lot of arguing (can't argue with facts): http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

Thanks for this. I can't find a list of the market with the most spent, but I can't find another market that has seen more spending than Tampa. $13.9 million in cumulative spending. The closest I can find is the Cleveland, OH market at $12.3 million.

Charlotte $12.7 million

[Tender Branson]

Good to see, even though FL will be close as usual.

The Senate numbers seem strange though.

[pbrower2a]

Can you click on individual markets? Doesnt seem to work.

You can click based on TV markets (which generally also coincide with FM radio markets) for either cumulative or recent weekly expenditures.  Some of those markets are geographically huge, so if you find a huge dark area in north-central Nevada and find that some place that couldn't possibly be getting its TV by direct broadcast from Reno and see "Reno", then it is because a place like Elko gets TV signals rebroadcast from  Reno. Much the same applies to places like Silver City, Gallup, Santa Fe, and Roswell in New Mexico because those cities get their  broadcast TV (and political ads) through Albuquerque. Some markets bleed into other states, as with that of Minneapolis-St. Paul reaching westernmost parts of Wisconsin.

You can ignore the cumulative spending because much of that involves spending on primaries. A state like Georgia drew copious money early because of a long-past Republican primary; that is long over. The current ones say where opposing sides have hotly-contested races for the Presidency (the legitimate swing states, and Michigan has dropped out as one of them) or a Senate seat (Massachusetts is the most obvious one that is not a swing state). So a legitimate swing state with a hotly-contested Senate seat (Florida, Ohio, Virginia) will have lots of money thrown into political advertising. 

The pattern can change. So if the US Senate race in Indiana heats up and the US Senate race withers in Ohio  that will probably reflect itself in huge ad buys in Indianapolis, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Evansville, Terre Haute, and maybe Louisville markets.  Spending in Cincinnati and Dayton markets might remain the same but be directed more toward Indiana viewers.

All House seats will be up for grabs, and there are some swing districts that will draw attention - -maybe late, but with huge amounts of money in non-swing states.That could be evident in sure-thing states for the Presidency... like Texas and New York.