NC redistricting revisited

[muon2]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and
2. Greensboro is attached to Durham and Chapel Hill via a snake through Burlington, for partisan gain.

I'm also not fond of pairing inner-city Raleigh with rural blacks, but I guess that's unavoidable as long as the VRA forces racial gerrymandering.

So I guess it is in a sense, "fairer," but that's not saying much.

And does it force it if the district is below 50% BVAP? The district in the map looks like it might be to me below 50%.

[muon2]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and

Some county in Western North Carolina had to be split to acheive OMOV. Buncombe simply does not have a right to an exemption. Splitting Buncombe is inherently no more, or no less, "unfair" than splitting any other county in Western North Carolina to acheive OMOV.

Asheville is the largest city in Western North Carolina. It belongs in a district in Western North Carolina, not in a district anchored by Gastonia and Hickory. And the fact that it was sunk into a district containing some of the most Republican counties in the state absolutely reeks of partisan intent.

It is not unusual to see anti-gerrymandering rules that require larger counties to be split before smaller counties when a choice is available. In that case Buncombe would be the county to split in western NC. It's the division between 4 and 13 that would bother me more since it needlessly splits two counties in a way that suggests partisan gerrymandering.

[muon2]

Take Idaho as an example. IIRC, Idaho's redistricting rules require that large counties be split first, then if cities need to get split, larger cities are split first. This basically means that Boise gets screwed. To me it would make much more sense to have a district anchored in Boise and its suburbs and a district comprised of the rest of the state.

EDIT: Any chance that the North Carolina stuff could be moved to another thread? We seem to be hijacking a discussion about Maryland.

Your wish is my command.

In the NC map I drew, the 1st district is 48.5% VAP black if I remember correctly-- more than enough to elect a black representative

Well, it would still retrogress out of 6 VRA-covered counties. Thats why the the Assembly had to redraw their original CD1 so that it complied with Section 5.

You are revising history here. The stated motivation for the revision is that the legislature thought that the Black Congressman in the first district had expressed his preference to gain  additional urban Black residents in Wake county rather than in Durham  county. When that Congressman publicly stated the opposite, he was accommodated in the second map.

As laid out here in this diary, there was still a good chance that the original CD01 would have been thrown out on Section 5 grounds anyway.

They could have drawn the district into Wake county while still avoiding retrogression in the eastern counties, ya know.

I might have agreed with the concerns in the diaries a year ago before DOJ started ruling. But seeing how DOJ protected their review position by taking a less scrutinizing view of section 5 on so many other maps then many observers expected, I think NC could have pulled back from some of the 21 counties and survived. Here's a 50.04% version with only 7 county splits. It does leave out some of the section 5 counties currently in CD 1, but it could survive since it is more compact and splits fewer counties.



Edited to drop county splits from 8 to 7.

[muon2]

I've updated my CD 1 posted earlier in the thread. It's based on the premise that compactness and county integrity were sufficiently compelling state interests that one didn't need to keep all those tendrils for section 5.

Earlier I had the CD with 8 county splits, and now it's down to 7. It occurred to me that rather than debate whether Durham or Raleigh should be in CD 1, I put both city centers in. That let me cut out many of the outlying city splits and increase compactness. It also creates a better balance between urban and rural areas with Durham and Wake accounting for about a third of the district. The district is cut very tight at 50.04% BVAP.

[muon2]

My best shot at a court-drawn/nonpartisan NC. I'm open to suggestions

The one thing I don't like about this map is that the Triad is split three ways. I tend to believe that fair maps should try and keep metro areas together as much as possible. In fact, I find metro area integrity to more important than county integrity, to be honest.  Urban and suburban Greensboro-Winston Salem is an area that ought to have its own congressional district, but has been cracked by both parties. 

Myrick's district is ugly, but it's a perfect CoI.

But it's a dangerous ugliness from the perspective of neutral redistricting principles. There was a bit of discussion of this on other threads, and the conclusion, which I now share, is that using a split county to bridge two whole counties in a district opens the door to gerrymandering mischief.

[muon2]

Here's my map that embeds the CD 1 I created above using neutral redistricting principles. I sought minimal county splits while maintaining some degree of compactness. The only splits are for CD 1 to comply with section 2 (50.04% BVAP), for the two large counties, and for two other counties to get all CDs within 1500 of the ideal size. Microchops of counties smaller than a precinct would be used to get exact population equality. Population deviation and 2008 results are in parentheses. I look forward to comments.



CD 1 (-799, 70.3% Obama) Section 2 compliant, it is about 1/3 from Raleigh-Durham.

CD 2 (+286, 54.0% Obama) Very compact, competitive CD centered on Fayetteville with only one split. Laurinburg in Scotland is in this CD allowing Ft Bragg to act as a natural border.

CD 3 (-962, 51.5% McCain) Competitive CD and more compact than most for this region. Whole counties only with half the population in the Greenville-Goldsboro area and the rest along the northern sounds.

CD 4 (+42, 51.6% McCain) Competitive CD with county splits to accommodate CD 1. Wake is divided so that it separates Raleigh in this CD from Cary in CD 13. Wake is the only county with a 3-way split.

CD 5 (+1029, 55.5% McCain) Compact CD centered on Winston-Salem. Only Wilkes is split with only about 7K shifted to CD 9.

CD 6 (-319, 54.1% Obama) Very compact, competitive CD centered on Greensboro with no county splits. The population of Triad and its suburbs is going to be in 2 CDs. This is the cleanest split I could construct.

CD 7 (-187, 56.2% McCain) Dedicated district for the southern coastal region with no county splits and almost no population deviation.

CD 8 (+948, 58.9% McCain) I 73 and US 74 provide the natural corridors linking this district. There are two partial counties to equalize population with CD 2 and 12.

CD 9 (+1225, 62.6% McCain) Reasonably compact CD with only one county split to equalize population with CD 5. Roughly equal population is in western Charlotte metro and in the Blue Ridge foothills.

CD 10 (-1440, 61.9% McCain) Very compact CD with whole counties only. The CD is entirely in the central Piedmont.

CD 11 (+224, 52.0% McCain) Potentially competitive CD with whole counties only. Anchored by Asheville it connects all the counties west of the Blue Ridge.

CD 12 (+580, 67.1% Obama) Entirely within Mecklenburg county it is 34.2% BVAP.

CD 13 (-631, 58.7% Obama) Reasonably compact CD with county splits due to CD 1 and the division of Wake. Cary is entirely in this CD.

[muon2]

It is truly a shame that it is rather difficult to draw an effective clean GOP map. I suppose something could be done from that to mesh 4 and 13 into 1 Dem superfortress while at the same time cracking Greensboro in a manner that is not as ugly as the official map.


Probably it has to do with the size of the various cities, and the spread nature of the black population. Eventually I suspect that will change and CD-1 will become a far more urban district.

NC seems to be naturally favorable to the Ds, like Florida and Illinois are for the Rs.

I'll work on a clean GOP map next...I may need your input

Well, that is mainly due to the fact that while a 50/50 district in Virginia is at the minimum lean GOP, that is not so in North Carolina.

This is where I get stuck. Out east you have 1 black and 1 white district.




The Triad districts work nicely enough. The problem is there is no place to go with the 8th and 7th. The 7th ends up being an extremely inefficient Dem vote sink and you are forced to yield a 4th district. Fundamentally there seems to be no way to crack Fayetteville, and if you turn it into a 60% vote sink, you run into problems with cracking Greensboro.

I think you will also be stuck making a BVAP majority district in the east without either Raleigh or Durham.

[muon2]

I will use a county bridge snake courtesy of Muon2. This will properly vote sink the 7th district while not causing excessive problems with the 6th, with the cost of making the 8th district a very poorly drawn district (but a GOP hold).




Mathematically there are enough blacks left to make 1 district, although truthfully given that North Carolina Democrats have shown themselves to be happy with mid 40s vap perhaps that would be sufficient to avoid county butchery. Section 5 is perhaps not long for this world anyway.

Section 5 may not be long for the world, but section 2 still applies. The blacks don't complain about a 45% BVAP in a Dem map, but they sue if it is in a map to favor the GOP.

[muon2]

My best shot at a court-drawn/nonpartisan NC. I'm open to suggestions

The one thing I don't like about this map is that the Triad is split three ways. I tend to believe that fair maps should try and keep metro areas together as much as possible. In fact, I find metro area integrity to more important than county integrity, to be honest.  Urban and suburban Greensboro-Winston Salem is an area that ought to have its own congressional district, but has been cracked by both parties. 

Myrick's district is ugly, but it's a perfect CoI.

But it's a dangerous ugliness from the perspective of neutral redistricting principles. There was a bit of discussion of this on other threads, and the conclusion, which I now share, is that using a split county to bridge two whole counties in a district opens the door to gerrymandering mischief.

I would outlaw multi-spanning where two or more counties are split between a pair of districts.

That's essentially part of the MI rules, though the VRA creates an exception for minority populations that span county lines. In NC I used multi-spanning for CD 1 as the only method to comply with section 2. I avoided it everywhere else.

[muon2]

No comments?

Here's my map that embeds the CD 1 I created above using neutral redistricting principles. I sought minimal county splits while maintaining some degree of compactness. The only splits are for CD 1 to comply with section 2 (50.04% BVAP), for the two large counties, and for two other counties to get all CDs within 1500 of the ideal size. Microchops of counties smaller than a precinct would be used to get exact population equality. Population deviation and 2008 results are in parentheses. I look forward to comments.



CD 1 (-799, 70.3% Obama) Section 2 compliant, it is about 1/3 from Raleigh-Durham.

CD 2 (+286, 54.0% Obama) Very compact, competitive CD centered on Fayetteville with only one split. Laurinburg in Scotland is in this CD allowing Ft Bragg to act as a natural border.

CD 3 (-962, 51.5% McCain) Competitive CD and more compact than most for this region. Whole counties only with half the population in the Greenville-Goldsboro area and the rest along the northern sounds.

CD 4 (+42, 51.6% McCain) Competitive CD with county splits to accommodate CD 1. Wake is divided so that it separates Raleigh in this CD from Cary in CD 13. Wake is the only county with a 3-way split.

CD 5 (+1029, 55.5% McCain) Compact CD centered on Winston-Salem. Only Wilkes is split with only about 7K shifted to CD 9.

CD 6 (-319, 54.1% Obama) Very compact, competitive CD centered on Greensboro with no county splits. The population of Triad and its suburbs is going to be in 2 CDs. This is the cleanest split I could construct.

CD 7 (-187, 56.2% McCain) Dedicated district for the southern coastal region with no county splits and almost no population deviation.

CD 8 (+948, 58.9% McCain) I 73 and US 74 provide the natural corridors linking this district. There are two partial counties to equalize population with CD 2 and 12.

CD 9 (+1225, 62.6% McCain) Reasonably compact CD with only one county split to equalize population with CD 5. Roughly equal population is in western Charlotte metro and in the Blue Ridge foothills.

CD 10 (-1440, 61.9% McCain) Very compact CD with whole counties only. The CD is entirely in the central Piedmont.

CD 11 (+224, 52.0% McCain) Potentially competitive CD with whole counties only. Anchored by Asheville it connects all the counties west of the Blue Ridge.

CD 12 (+580, 67.1% Obama) Entirely within Mecklenburg county it is 34.2% BVAP.

CD 13 (-631, 58.7% Obama) Reasonably compact CD with county splits due to CD 1 and the division of Wake. Cary is entirely in this CD.

In the meantime I've calculated the PVIs for the districts. For whole county CDs I used the actual 04 and 08 votes. I've approximated the other CDs using 08 and a weighting factor based on the 08 votes in the CDs that I can directly determine. It shifts the PVI between 0.5 to 1.0 in favor of the GOP compared to the 08 numbers alone. Of course there's a history of Dems holding seats a few PVI to the GOP.

CD 1: D+16
CD 2: D+0
CD 3: R+6
CD 4: R+6
CD 5: R+11
CD 6: R+0
CD 7: R+10
CD 8: R+15
CD 9: R+16
CD 10: R+16
CD 11: R+6
CD 12: D+13
CD 13: D+5

[muon2]

muon, even in your neutral map, it would probably be 7 Democrats, possibly 8 without Jones.

I like that you've got 5 whole-county CDs while still keeping CD1 legal.

I look at the numbers and see 3 strong D, 2 lean D, and 5 strong R. The 3 R+6 (3, 4 and 11) are likely R, but are opportunities for the Dems given past voting practices in NC. Technically my CD 2 and 6 could go R, especially if the Dem is too liberal. So 5 of 13 are potentially competitive.

To me that's pretty neutral given the last two elections that put the state at R+3 overall.

I would be intrigued by the potential competition for CD 11 as the Blue Ridge district is attacked by Blue Dogs.

[muon2]

muon, even in your neutral map, it would probably be 7 Democrats, possibly 8 without Jones.

I like that you've got 5 whole-county CDs while still keeping CD1 legal.

I look at the numbers and see 3 strong D, 2 lean D, and 5 strong R. The 3 R+6 (3, 4 and 11) are likely R, but are opportunities for the Dems given past voting practices in NC. Technically my CD 2 and 6 could go R, especially if the Dem is too liberal. So 5 of 13 are potentially competitive.

To me that's pretty neutral given the last two elections that put the state at R+3 overall.

I would be intrigued by the potential competition for CD 11 as the Blue Ridge district is attacked by Blue Dogs.

I think the most likely case would be McIntyre running in CD7 and Kissell taking the 2nd; McIntyre may have a close call in a wave year, but Kissell should hold the 2nd pretty easily.

Your 6th looks interesting. I'm guessing Miller would run there, as opposed to taking on Price in the 13th. I'm not sure if Miller could hold an R+0 seat.

Shuler should be fine in your 11th.

Of course Foxx lives in my 11th as well, though she currently lives in NC 10 so living outside her CD is not a problem. I assume that Rogers is politically similar to Shuler since he was his chief of staff.

[muon2]

No comments?

Here's my map that embeds the CD 1 I created above using neutral redistricting principles. I sought minimal county splits while maintaining some degree of compactness. The only splits are for CD 1 to comply with section 2 (50.04% BVAP), for the two large counties, and for two other counties to get all CDs within 1500 of the ideal size. Microchops of counties smaller than a precinct would be used to get exact population equality. Population deviation and 2008 results are in parentheses. I look forward to comments.

My main problem with it is your District 1; frankly the tendril connecting the minority neighborhoods of Raleigh to the rest of the district is really really ugly and I'd prefer to just comply with Section 5 instead (my "clean" map is, I think, a good example of how you can do so with a minimum of erosity).  It also makes it hard to fit in an all-Wake district, which is something that should exist for sure.

I'd also prefer an actual Triad district, for reasons I've explained before.  Metro area integrity is more important to me than county integrity.

OTOH, I really like your District 2.  The southern half of the map is good.

CD 1 poses some interesting questions for a neutral mapper. It has been an black-majority district since 1992, and in 2000 it was 50.7% black. At the start of both those decades the district elected a black representative as one would predict. However, the resignation due to scandal of Ballance in 2004 opened the way for judge Butterfield to take the seat. The 2010 Census showed that the district had fallen to 47.8% BVAP, and it likely was below 50% by 2004. It's not clear to me that in a normal open seat race Butterfield would be the representative.

Now to 2010. To bring the BVAP over 50% required adding an urban black population from Raleigh/Durham. 50% of the VAP is about 275 K. Durham has a BVAP of 54 K and Raleigh about 58 K in their most concentrated precincts. Adding only one or the other makes them a voting appendage unlikely to be able to have a significant voice in the outcome of an election. By adding both populations, the urban black population in that metro area becomes 112 K out of 275 K BVAP and it would be expected to play an important role in a contested primary.

In districts that are not going to be competitive in a general election, and the district will take in at least some of a substantially different region of interest, there is something to commend giving both regions a stake in the primary. I did that on the GOP side in CD 9 and here for the Dems in CD 1.

[muon2]

Butterfield is actually considered black.

Thanks, he could have fooled me. Looking up his bio I see his father came from Bermuda and both parents had white ancestors.