NC redistricting revisited

[Miles]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and

Some county in Western North Carolina had to be split to acheive OMOV. Buncombe simply does not have a right to an exemption. Splitting Buncombe is inherently no more, or no less, "unfair" than splitting any other county in Western North Carolina to acheive OMOV.

Asheville is the largest city in Western North Carolina. It belongs in a district in Western North Carolina, not in a district anchored by Gastonia and Hickory. And the fact that it was sunk into a district containing some of the most Republican counties in the state absolutely reeks of partisan intent.

It is not unusual to see anti-gerrymandering rules that require larger counties to be split before smaller counties when a choice is available. In that case Buncombe would be the county to split in western NC. It's the division between 4 and 13 that would bother me more since it needlessly splits two counties in a way that suggests partisan gerrymandering.

Wouldn't your NC-01 be illegal since it pulls out of several Section 5 counties along the east coast?

McIntyre could still hang on pretty easily but Kissell would probably in worse shape than he's in now.

What are the numbers for your CD2 and CD6?

[Miles]

In the NC map I drew, the 1st district is 48.5% VAP black if I remember correctly-- more than enough to elect a black representative

Well, it would still retrogress out of 6 VRA-covered counties. Thats why the the Assembly had to redraw their original CD1 so that it complied with Section 5.

This is the cleanest legal iteration of CD1 that I've come up with.

50.5% Black VAP, 67.0% Obama

Every county might very well have its own special pleading. The more rural counties in Western North Carolina would probably prefer a district not anchored in an urban county. Not all such pleadings can be honored.  Posting the special pleading that futher your position and ignoring those special pleadings that don't further your position belies a certain partisan intent, eh?

I really don't think that that claim holds water in this case. I'm almost certain that Asheville has anchored the Western North Carolina district since the founding of the state. And I'm sure that folks in places like Hendersonville and Waynesville share a closer connection to Asheville than folks in Gastonia.

Also, I'm not ignoring the special pleadings of other counties. Just as I think Asheville is a better fit in the Western district, I think that counties like Burke and Caldwell would fit better with Catawba. They do, after all, share a metropolitan area.

Agreed, Vazdul. As someonw who's lived in NC for 8 years, I can tell you that Bob is wrong. Culturally, Asheville has much more in common with the rural mountain counties than it does with suburban/exurban Charlotte.

[Miles]

Every county might very well have its own special pleading. The more rural counties in Western North Carolina would probably prefer a district not anchored in an urban county. Not all such pleadings can be honored.  Posting the special pleading that futher your position and ignoring those special pleadings that don't further your position belies a certain partisan intent, eh?

I really don't think that that claim holds water in this case. I'm almost certain that Asheville has anchored the Western North Carolina district since the founding of the state.

A statement that is utterly irrelevant to whether, or not, the folks in the rural counties would prefer an all rural district [something you would consider a "community of interest," whatever that means.] Just because they were stuck with Asheville in the past doesn't mean they have to like it.

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Again, that is merely a repetition of your special pleading. If the special pleading of the folks from Asheville were the only consideration, then you just might have a case. But, the folks around Asheville have a right to their special pleadings, and, a right to have their special pleading being  debated as seriously as the pleadings from the folks in Asheville. Frankly, I don't think the rural folks around Asheville want Asheville in their district for the entire 360 degree perimeter. For them, the issue is whom is stuck with Buncombe. The legislature found a solution. You might not like that solution, but, for you to claim that there is only one way to look at it--your way--is pure bravo sierra.  

How bout central Wilmington's "special pleading" to be with the rest of New Hanover county? Or Durham's "special pleading" not to get cracked 4 ways. Was it the "solution" for the Assembly to draw the lines there in that manner? If you answer yes, then you're just a Republican troll.

Moving Asheville out of CD11, after it had been in a district with the rural western counties for over 100 years, was a partisan sham and you know it.

Bob, have you ever actually been to Asheville /western NC or spent any decent amount of time there? You sure seem to know an awful lot about the region.

[Miles]

In the NC map I drew, the 1st district is 48.5% VAP black if I remember correctly-- more than enough to elect a black representative

Well, it would still retrogress out of 6 VRA-covered counties. Thats why the the Assembly had to redraw their original CD1 so that it complied with Section 5.

You are revising history here. The stated motivation for the revision is that the legislature thought that the Black Congressman in the first district had expressed his preference to gain  additional urban Black residents in Wake county rather than in Durham  county. When that Congressman publicly stated the opposite, he was accommodated in the second map.

As laid out here in this diary, there was still a good chance that the original CD01 would have been thrown out on Section 5 grounds anyway.

They could have drawn the district into Wake county while still avoiding retrogression in the eastern counties, ya know.

You can't accuse me of rewriting history any more than I can accuse you of being an amicable poster; Butterfield talked about the retrogression concerns that I mentioned in his statement on the original map, saying:

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[Miles]

Bye, Bob. I took you off my ignore list for a while and you reminded why I had you on there on the first place; I really can't take you arrogance anymore.

[Miles]

 

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Of course, but thats all fine and good for Bob as long as its the Republicans who are doing it.

'Drawing Asheville with suburban Charlotte? 'Nothing wrong with that!

'Pairing Johnston county with the southern coast? No problem there!

'Snaking CD-04 down from Chapel Hill to Fayetteville? Makes perfect sense!

But when you pair urban Greensboro with central Raleigh or keep Asheville in its century-old community of interest, Bob suddenly has a big problem.

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Even with the Durham hand of CD01, there wasn't a need to crack it 4 ways.

[Miles]

Since we're revisiting NC redistricting here, I may post some of the alternative NC maps's I've made (its the state I do the most in DRA), for everyone's enjoyment.

[Miles]

Since we're revisiting NC redistricting here, I may post some of the alternative NC maps's I've made (its the state I do the most in DRA), for everyone's enjoyment.

Ya know what, nevermind. If I post my maps, Bob will probably systematically go through them and circuitously argue about every little detail he thinks should be different. Nothing positive will come from that and I have more productive things to do than argue with an arrogant, condescending troll. 

[Miles]

Since we're revisiting NC redistricting here, I may post some of the alternative NC maps's I've made (its the state I do the most in DRA), for everyone's enjoyment.

Ya know what, nevermind. If I post my maps, Bob will probably systematically go through them and circuitously argue about every little detail he thinks should be different. Nothing positive will come from that and I have more productive things to do than argue with an arrogant, condescending troll. 

Isn't that why you have him on ignore? I'd like to see your maps.

Even still...

Ok, I might actually post some then

[Miles]

Well, this thread started in Maryland, it became NC thread and now I'm taking it to TX.

One situation that I thought was comparable to that of NC-11 is TX-01. The difference here is that, for the sake of partisan advantage, Republicans moved an urban area into a rural district, rather than excising an urban area as they did with NC-11.



Before the DeLaymander, TX-01 was almost entirely rural; its largest city was Texarkana, with a population of 37,000.
 Like NC-11, which included the same basic set of counties since at least the 1920's, TX-01 was anchored in the state's northeastern corner since the 1880's.

 However, to defeat Max Sandlin, the Republicans moved the cities of Longview and Tyler into the district while splitting the rural counties between CD1 and CD4. Tyler and Longview were noticeably more Republican than the surrounding, less-populated counties along the LA/AR border (LBJ couldn't even win them in 1964).

Now, by Bob's logic, since Asheville is urban, it should be paired with the Charlotte exurbs, rather than the more culturally similar rural western counties. With that in mind, Bob, were the TX Republicans right to break up a geographically and politically coherent district like the original TX-01?

[Miles]

If I hadn't happened to follow politics for most of life, with its familiarities with what places vote what way, and, if I were asked to redistrict Texas, I would try to draw as many completely rural districts as practical, possibly like the example above.

Very good; as long as you're consistent. That interestingly puts you at odds with your party's actions in TX; Republicans diluted the influence of rural voters in those such districts.

[Miles]

Out of curiosity, Miles, is the old TX-01 entirely rural any more? I imagine there might be some DFW sprawl, but I don't know since it's only been about nine years.

Yes, its still pretty rural.

I've drawn it in DRA a few times, and its actually lost population, IIRC.

[Miles]

Out of curiosity, Miles, is the old TX-01 entirely rural any more? I imagine there might be some DFW sprawl, but I don't know since it's only been about nine years.

Yes, its still pretty rural.

I've drawn it in DRA a few times, and its actually lost population, IIRC.

Correction: It didn't lose population, but it grew at a rate much slower than the state as a whole.

It had right at 650K people in 2000 and in 2010, it was 685k. So it grew at about a 6% rate compared to almost 20% for the state as a whole.

[Miles]

If I hadn't happened to follow politics for most of life, with its familiarities with what places vote what way, and, if I were asked to redistrict Texas, I would try to draw as many completely rural districts as practical, possibly like the example above.

Very good; as long as you're consistent. That interestingly puts you at odds with your party's actions in TX; Republicans diluted the influence of rural voters in those such districts.

That is a very good point Miles.

The opposite is true on other parts of the state. By drawing 4 bizarre baconstrips from Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties (total population of roughly 2 congressional districts), some plaintiffs in recent redistricting legalese sought to dilute the influence of rural voters in those such districts.

Yeah, we agree on that. There were also rural districts like the old TX-02 and TX-17 which were  pretty cohesive rural blocks but were cracked multiple ways.

[Miles]

Ok, if I were in charge of NC redistricting, this is what I'd draw. After making dozens of precinct-level maps, and spending hours in DRA, this is the best deal that I've come up with for the Democrats.

My goal here was 9-4, optimally consisting of four liberal Democrats, five Blue Dogs and four Republicans.




CD1:


OLD PVI: D+10
NEW PVI: D+15
50.3% black VAP. My goal here was to get the Obama % as low as possible while still keeping it >50% black and avoiding retrogression out of any Section 5 counties. It connects into Durham via touch-point with the 13th.

Safe D.

CD2:

OLD PVI: R+1
NEW PVI: D+1
Follows the same basic formula as the current version. Its centered in Johnston county, but expands its reach further into Raleigh and Fayetteville to pick up more liberal voters. Obama margin here increased 3 points, making this district a point or so bluer than the nation as a whole; this would have been enough for Etheridge to hold on. Ellmers was lucky to get washed in during 2010, but I doubt she'd hold this district going forward, especially in a Presidential year.

Lean D.

CD3:

OLD PVI: R+15
NEW PVI: R+15
In terms of partisanship, the Third is basically unchanged. No Democrat has a realistic chance of beating Jones anyway. When he retires, this area has trended R so that even an open seat would be tough sledding for a Democrat.

Safe R with Jones, Likely R if open.

CD4

OLD PVI: D+9
NEW PVI: D+5
The PVI of this district takes a hit because of the loss of most of Durham-proper. To make up for the loss of population there, it reaches down to grab all of Chatham and Lee from the old 2nd. In Wake county, it keeps much of its current holdings.

Safe D.

CD5

OLD PVI: R+15
NEW PVI: R+7
As a gaffe-prone incumbent who routinely underperforms, my biggest target in this map was Virginia Foxx. McCain's margin here was reduced to 7 points, down from 23 in the previous district. Much of that shift can be attributed to shifting all of Forsyth county into the district. Assuming a uniform swing, Foxx would have held on in 2008 with just 50.5%. If Democrats recruited a Blue Dog who could use Winston-Salem as a base while still performing relatively well in the rural counties, Foxx could very well lose.

Tossup/Slight R.

CD6

OLD PVI: R+17
NEW PVI: R+16
One of my favorite R's, Congressman Howard Coble, is still super-safe. The district is the same, except it takes two precincts in southeastern Forsyth and adds a chunk of northern Davidson.

Safe R.

CD7

OLD PVI: R+6
NEW PVI: R+6
Aside from taking in all of Sampson and trading around a few precincts along the northern border, very minimal change; it remains a compact district logically placed in the southeastern edge of the state. In terms of PVI, its slightly friendlier to Obama. Its less than 52% McCain now, but has 51.2% D average in state races, meaning this will be safe for McIntyre and the D's will have a decent shot at holding it when he retires.

Safe D with McIntyre, Tossup if open.

CD8

OLD PVI: R+1
NEW PVI: EVEN
This becomes more marginally Democratic by swapping out chunks of Stanly and Union counties in exchange for a bigger slice of Charlotte and northern precincts in Robeson county. Other than that, just some minor precinct-trading in Fayetteville. Since Kissell won by a surprisingly comfortable margin in 2010 he'll be safe here and the Democrats would be favored when he retires.

Safe D for Kissell, Lean D if open.

CD9

OLD PVI: R+9
NEW PVI: R+13
The suburban Charlotte seat becomes even more of a vote-sink, with McCain approaching 60%. I'm pretty sure McCrory would be near 70% here as well. It keeps the same basic Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union formula but takes a chunk of Stanly from the 8th.

Safe R.

CD10

OLD PVI: R+17
NEW PVI: R+19
Overall, it shifts eastward to accommodate the loss of Burke county to CD11. It takes in Alexander county, the Republican parts of Iredell and eastern Wilkes, all of which have the collective effect of making CD5 more competitive. Just to be partisan, I drew McHenry's home in CD9, though its just one precinct away from being in the 10th.

Safe R.

CD11

OLD PVI: R+6
NEW PVI: R+6
Remains a mountainous western district anchored in Asheville, as it has been for many decades. It gives all of Rutherford county to the 10th while replacing it with most of Burke county. Obama's performance improves slightly.

Safe for Shuler, Tossup if open.

CD12

OLD PVI: D+17
NEW PVI: D+17
I'm assuming I can pull CD12 out of Forsyth county altogether, since its not covered under Section 5 jurisdiction. The White-Black VAP percentages go from 46-43 to 44-40.

Safe D.

CD13:

OLD PVI: D+6
NEW PVI: D+4
Now uses touch-point in two locations, which seems a bit sketchy, but its the most efficient way to make this seat as Democratic as possible. Despite moving a few points to the right, Miller would have still won here in 2010 with 52/53%. Going forward, the trend would also be in his favor.

Likely/Safe D.


Overall, the Miles Plan splits 32 counties, compared with 40 split counties in the enacted Republican plan. The Miles plan splits 5 counties 3-ways while the Republican splits 7 counties 3 or more ways.

[Miles]

jimrtex, thanks for that informative post; I've always found east Texas politics interesting.

At least with respect to the rural distrcits, wasn't a lot of the Frostrosity's ugliness fixed with the 2001 court-drawn map though?



Smith and Gregg were kept whole and put in Hall's district while Sandlin got all of Hunt (except for one or two precincts in the southwest) and all of Nacogdoches-proper.

[Miles]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

Thanks

I do think the GOP would still be favored in CD5, but I made it as Dem-friendly as possible, so that it could possibly fall in another 2006 or 2008.

The rural counties in the 5th, unlike those in the the 7th or 8th, are actually ancestrally Republican; FDR couldn't even win Wilkes or Yadkin, IIRC.

[Miles]

Miles, what do you think a court drawn North Carolina map would look like?

I'll have a court-drawn/nonpartisan NC posted next

[Miles]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

Thanks

I do think the GOP would still be favored in CD5, but I made it as Dem-friendly as possible, so that it could possibly fall in another 2006 or 2008.

The rural counties in the 5th, unlike those in the the 7th or 8th, are actually ancestrally Republican; FDR couldn't even win Wilkes or Yadkin, IIRC.

Yeah, I don't think that district would be enough to sink Foxx. Those rural counties are too Republican.

Yes, but if the Democrats were going for 9-4, she'd be the best Republican (other than Ellmers) to target.

Other than Foxx, they could make Jones' ancestrally Democratic district bluer and wait till he retires to launch a serious bid there; though in making Jones's district bluer, they'd probably have to weaken McIntyre.

The 9th would be a bad choice because Republicans there usually run way ahead of McCain's performance. McHenry, though a staunch partisan like Foxx, has a district that is solidly Republican at all levels. Finally, Coble's district is a vote sink for central NC, so Democrats would need to keep it

[Miles]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

Thanks

I do think the GOP would still be favored in CD5, but I made it as Dem-friendly as possible, so that it could possibly fall in another 2006 or 2008.

The rural counties in the 5th, unlike those in the the 7th or 8th, are actually ancestrally Republican; FDR couldn't even win Wilkes or Yadkin, IIRC.

Yeah, I don't think that district would be enough to sink Foxx. Those rural counties are too Republican.

Yes, but if the Democrats were going for 9-4, she'd be the best Republican (other than Ellmers) to target.

Other than Foxx, they could make Jones' ancestrally Democratic district bluer and wait till he retires to launch a serious bid there; though in making Jones's district bluer, they'd probably have to weaken McIntyre.

The 9th would be a bad choice because Republicans there usually run way ahead of McCain's performance. McHenry, though a staunch partisan like Foxx, has a district that is solidly Republican at all levels. Finally, Coble's district is a vote sink for central NC, so Democrats would need to keep it

Wouldn't it be possible to confine Watt's district to Mecklenburg County, eliminate Myrick's district altogether, and replace it with a Democratic district based in Greensboro/Winston-Salem?

Thats kinda what I did for my nonpartisan map, which I'll post in a few hours. My court-drawn 12th is based almost entirely in Mecklenburg (with a few precincts from Cabarrus). Incidentally, though, I put W-S and Greensboro in separate districts.

As a resident of the NC-09, I think suburban/exurban Charlotte its own CoI, so I tend to keep southern Mecklenburg together with Gaston and Union.

Remember earlier this redistricting cycle when the TN Republicans feared that cracking Jim Cooper's district would lead to a dummymander? That's kinda how I feel about NC-09...there's a lot of GOP strength locked up in the 9th.

[Miles]

Thats kinda what I did for my nonpartisan map, which I'll post in a few hours. My court-drawn 12th is based almost entirely in Mecklenburg (with a few precincts from Cabarrus). Incidentally, though, I put W-S and Greensboro in separate districts.

As a resident of the NC-09, I think suburban/exurban Charlotte its own CoI, so I tend to keep southern Mecklenburg together with Gaston and Union.

I do, too, but as the previous map was intended as a gerrymander, CoI's get thrown out the window anyway.

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It's easy to deal with Gaston County- just dump it in the 10th. Union County is harder- it has to go to Kissell. In the version I'm working on at the moment, I compensated for this by pulling Kissell's district out of Cabarrus and Stanly as much as possible.

Maybe I'll revisit the Democratic map after I post this next one...would be worth trying.

Ughh...Union is nasty....probably my least favorite county in the state. If you give Union to Kissell, I'd recommend drawing a strip up the east side of Mecklenburg so that he can still pick up Charlotte Democrats. Something like this:



That district is 53.6/45.6 Obama and has a deviation of +44...not bad. I might try to work with that more.

Who would get Stanly and Cabarrus? Coble?

[Miles]

They eliminated some of the more egregious county splits.

But take a look at 4 and 5.  They had to keep the split of Kaufman because they couldn't figure out how to maintain a district that links Longview to Gainesville and another that links East Dallas to areas to the south.  5 was drawn for John Bryant.

1 and 4 were gerrymandered back in the 1960s.  It is nonsensical to split Smith and Gregg from Harrison, Rusk, and Upshur, unless the population required such a split.

Hmmm, ok. I always wondered about that odd tendril of the 5th linking the rural counties to the Dallas area.

[Miles]

My best shot at a court-drawn/nonpartisan NC. I'm open to suggestions





CD1:

OLD PVI: D+10
NEW PVI: D+12.5
This is actually a slightly modified version of the one muon posted earlier in this thread. 50.3% Black VAP.

Safe D.

CD2:

OLD PVI: R+1
NEW PVI: R+9
Under this fair map, CD2 becomes a fairly strong Republican-leaning seat. Its stays centered around Johnston county and takes in most of the non-Raleigh parts of southern Wake county. It keeps Harnett and Lee and adds the Republican parts of Wayne (the black voters there are in Butterfield's first).
While Ellmers would be safe in a general election, her biggest threat would be in the primary. Davis Rouzer's entire State Senate district is located here. Judging by how he impressively upset Ilario Pantano in the R primary for the new CD7, Rouzer could launch a serious primary thread to Ellmers should he take the plunge. In my view, Rouzer would be the stronger candidate anyway.

Likely/Safe R.

CD3:

OLD PVI: R+15
NEW PVI: R+12
Not much to see here; the Third gets a bit cleaner and moves a few points towards the Democrats.

Safe R for Jones, Likely R if open.

CD4:

OLD PVI: D+9
NEW PVI: D+11
With the loss of most of Durham to CD1, the 4th now takes in most of Greensboro. Despite the addition of GOP-leaning Alamance and moderately-red Person, the 4th inches a few points to the left due to the addition of Greensboro.

CD5:

OLD PVI: R+15
NEW PVI: R+8
While it may seem a bit partisan of me to keep Forsyth county here, it allows for the district to br composed entirely of whole counties, which I thought was appropriate for a nonpartisan map. This is actually quite reminiscent of Richard's Burr's district in the late 1990's that was primarily based along the VA border. This is a few points more Republican than the 5th in my D gerrymander, so Foxx should be able to hold on.

Lean/Likely R.

CD6:

OLD PVI: R+17
NEW PVI: R+13
The 6th district becomes more compact and loses the touch-point in Greensboro. I don't think Coble would actually live here, but he's previously represented all the counties here except Chatham. Though it moves over 8 points to the left, Democrats would still have no reason to contest this seat.

Safe R.

CD7:

OLD PVI: R+6
NEW PVI: R+6
This is all pretty familiar territory for McIntyre. Its similar to his current district, but trades out Pender to the 3rd and takes in all of Sampson. Cumberland county is now only cracked 2-ways, with McIntyre taking most of the non-Fayetteville half.

Safe for McIntyre, Tossup if open.

CD8:

OLD PVI: R+1
NEW PVI: R+3
From an electoral standpoint, the new 8th is now very similar to the state as whole; Obama won here by .3%. The 8th loses its Charlotte hand and adds red Moore county to the east, though it does also expand to take in virtually all of in Fayetteville; overall, these changes push the district towards the GOP. Still, it has a 50.8% D average in state elections, so I think Kissell should be able to hold on relatively easily. Aesthetically, that split of Harnett county kinda annoys me.

Likely D with Kissell, Tossup/Slight D if open.

CD9:

OLD PVI: R+9
NEW PVI: R+13
Like the 5th, my CD9 harkens back to the 1990's. Southern Mecklenburg is still paired with the Charlotte exurbs and is still one of the districts where Democrats perform the worst. I actually got this to zero deviation, which I thought was neatl!

Safe R.

CD10:

OLD PVI: R+17
NEW PVI: R+16
The 10th reaches further into the Piedmont. With the exception of Lincoln, I used whole counties. McHenry doesn't live here, but the majority of this is composed of his current district anyway.

Safe R.

CD11:

OLD PVI: R+6
NEW PVI: R+7
All whole counties! Very minimal change from the current 11th. The district shifts to the right somewhat as it trades moderately-Republican McDowell county and adds the duo of super-red Avery and Mitchell.

Safe D for Shuler, Tossup/Slight R if open.

CD12:

OLD PVI: D+17
NEW PVI: D+12
The 12th is finally a Charlotte-centric district. Other than a handful of precincts in Cabarrus, its entirely in Mecklenburg county. Since it relinquishes heavily D precincts in Greensboro and W-S and replaces them with only moderately D precincts in Charlotte, its PVI drops down a decent amount. A good candidate here when Watt retires would be Charlotte mayor Anthony Foxx.

Safe D.

CD13:

OLD PVI: D+6
NEW PVI: D+3
The 13th is now a Raleigh-oriented district and doesn't use touch-point. It takes in almost all of Raleigh proper, the northern half of Wake county and the non-CD1 parts of a few counties to the north. Miller should be okay here, though he'll probably face more competitive races.

Lean/Likely D.


The Nonpartisan Miles Plan only splits 16 counties. Likewise, outside of CD1 (where I pretty much had to crack counties), I only split 7.

In terms of the delegation, this would be 7D-6R.

[Miles]

Thats kinda what I did for my nonpartisan map, which I'll post in a few hours. My court-drawn 12th is based almost entirely in Mecklenburg (with a few precincts from Cabarrus). Incidentally, though, I put W-S and Greensboro in separate districts.

As a resident of the NC-09, I think suburban/exurban Charlotte its own CoI, so I tend to keep southern Mecklenburg together with Gaston and Union.

I do, too, but as the previous map was intended as a gerrymander, CoI's get thrown out the window anyway.

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It's easy to deal with Gaston County- just dump it in the 10th. Union County is harder- it has to go to Kissell. In the version I'm working on at the moment, I compensated for this by pulling Kissell's district out of Cabarrus and Stanly as much as possible.

That actually worked out quite nicely. This is my version of the D gerrymander where I collapsed Myrick's district:



I'll probably fine-tune this map, but here are some numbers:

CD9: 55-44 Obama
CD10: 60-39 McCain
CD8: 51-48 Obama
CD5: 65-34 McCain
CD12: 60.5-39 Obama
CD6: 64-35 McCain

Everything else is the same.

[Miles]

My best shot at a court-drawn/nonpartisan NC. I'm open to suggestions

The one thing I don't like about this map is that the Triad is split three ways. I tend to believe that fair maps should try and keep metro areas together as much as possible. In fact, I find metro area integrity to more important than county integrity, to be honest.  Urban and suburban Greensboro-Winston Salem is an area that ought to have its own congressional district, but has been cracked by both parties.  

Myrick's district is ugly, but it's a perfect CoI.

This was my logic with the Triad:

I gave W-S to the 5th, so that 1) the district could be all whole counties and 2) Forsyth could be to the 5th what Buncombe is to the 11th.

As for Guilford, I thought the split there was pretty clean. Greensboro-proper could still have a Democratic Congressman (Price) while the non-Greensboro precincts (collectively a GOP-leaning area) could keep Coble.

There's a lot of precedent for putting Guilford and Forsyth in separate districts; even in the Republican map, Foxx has most of Forsyth, Coble has most of Guilford and Watt's district takes the liberal voters from those counties. Even if you drew all of Forsyth with Greensboro, you'd still probably have to split Guilford.

This was actually my orginial draft of the nonpartisan map:



The court might want to draw that 4th and 6th if they were aiming to create competitive districts; the 4th would be down to 56.5% Obama and the 6th would be very similar to the state as a whole (49.6% Obama, 49.4% McCain). I don't think grouping urban Greensboro with those three rural central counties would be good from a CoI standpoint though.

I agree about the 9th; most people I've talked with from Shelby (in Cleveland county) pretty much consider themselves part of the Charlotte area. So, it makes sense to put them in CD9.