NC redistricting revisited

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and
2. Greensboro is attached to Durham and Chapel Hill via a snake through Burlington, for partisan gain.

I'm also not fond of pairing inner-city Raleigh with rural blacks, but I guess that's unavoidable as long as the VRA forces racial gerrymandering.

So I guess it is in a sense, "fairer," but that's not saying much.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and
2. Greensboro is attached to Durham and Chapel Hill via a snake through Burlington, for partisan gain.

I'm also not fond of pairing inner-city Raleigh with rural blacks, but I guess that's unavoidable as long as the VRA forces racial gerrymandering.

So I guess it is in a sense, "fairer," but that's not saying much.

And does it force it if the district is below 50% BVAP? The district in the map looks like it might be to me below 50%.

Hmm... it looks like you may be right. After mapping it out myself, I'm under 50% BVAP with the district about 25K short, and no more black precincts in Raleigh. But it's not too far off, and can be brought above that threshold with a few minor alterations.

I'm no expert on how it is determined where VRA districts are legally required, but I'd say that as long as racial gerrymandering is enforced, one probably should be required in northeastern North Carolina. The black population there is fairly evenly spread out within the district, and there are no significant intervening areas of non-black population. Contrast this with the current NC-12, where I don't think a VRA district should be required, as it pairs blacks in Charlotte with blacks in Greensboro/Winston-Salem by stringing them together via a bunch a white areas.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If the Pubs manage to hold on to the Bartlett seat, the Dems might throw in the towel should target Harris in a redraw. Yes, the "if" is a pretty high hurdle I understand. But it is not impossible to overcome.

Fixed.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and

Some county in Western North Carolina had to be split to acheive OMOV. Buncombe simply does not have a right to an exemption. Splitting Buncombe is inherently no more, or no less, "unfair" than splitting any other county in Western North Carolina to acheive OMOV.

Asheville is the largest city in Western North Carolina. It belongs in a district in Western North Carolina, not in a district anchored by Gastonia and Hickory. And the fact that it was sunk into a district containing some of the most Republican counties in the state absolutely reeks of partisan intent.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This has nothing to do with Md, but I opposed extreme gerrymandering consistently such as NC, OH and PA.. and crafted alternates that would be fairer.. example:

Less ugly? Yes. Fairer. Not by a long shot.

Fairer because Wake and Mecklenberg each have their own CD, and the dems would have a slight edge in the Wake seat

I'll give you that, perhaps, but:

1. Buncombe County is needlessly split for partisan gain, and

Some county in Western North Carolina had to be split to acheive OMOV. Buncombe simply does not have a right to an exemption. Splitting Buncombe is inherently no more, or no less, "unfair" than splitting any other county in Western North Carolina to acheive OMOV.

Asheville is the largest city in Western North Carolina. It belongs in a district in Western North Carolina, not in a district anchored by Gastonia and Hickory. And the fact that it was sunk into a district containing some of the most Republican counties in the state absolutely reeks of partisan intent.

It is not unusual to see anti-gerrymandering rules that require larger counties to be split before smaller counties when a choice is available. In that case Buncombe would be the county to split in western NC. It's the division between 4 and 13 that would bother me more since it needlessly splits two counties in a way that suggests partisan gerrymandering.

I understand that the intent behind such rules is to ensure that smaller counties are not disenfranchised by being split, and I can respect that intent. I, however, am of the view that maintaining the integrity of communities of interest should be the primary goal of redistricting. Communities of interest tend to be built around urban areas. It bothers me when these urban cores are split.

Take Idaho as an example. IIRC, Idaho's redistricting rules require that large counties be split first, then if cities need to get split, larger cities are split first. This basically means that Boise gets screwed. To me it would make much more sense to have a district anchored in Boise and its suburbs and a district comprised of the rest of the state.

EDIT: Any chance that the North Carolina stuff could be moved to another thread? We seem to be hijacking a discussion about Maryland.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

In the NC map I drew, the 1st district is 48.5% VAP black if I remember correctly-- more than enough to elect a black representative

While I agree that the district you drew would probably elect a black representative, the VRA may require that the VAP black percentage be above 50%. But I'm not an expert on this, and it's a fairly easy fix anyway.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Every county might very well have its own special pleading. The more rural counties in Western North Carolina would probably prefer a district not anchored in an urban county. Not all such pleadings can be honored.  Posting the special pleading that futher your position and ignoring those special pleadings that don't further your position belies a certain partisan intent, eh?

I really don't think that that claim holds water in this case. I'm almost certain that Asheville has anchored the Western North Carolina district since the founding of the state. And I'm sure that folks in places like Hendersonville and Waynesville share a closer connection to Asheville than folks in Gastonia.

Also, I'm not ignoring the special pleadings of other counties. Just as I think Asheville is a better fit in the Western district, I think that counties like Burke and Caldwell would fit better with Catawba. They do, after all, share a metropolitan area.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

One of a myriad of special pleadings that wasn't honored. Again, there are a series of special pleading that are contradictory to one another. Honoring some special pleading means ignoring others.

And honoring the special pleadings of Republican Party hacks in smoke-filled back rooms means ignoring the pleadings that actually make geographic and cultural sense.

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Blame Butterfield for that one. You can also say the previous redistricting that paired urban Greensboro with suburban Raleigh. Who chaired the redistricting committee that just happened to draw an open seat for that chairman?[/quote]

Butterfield's district does not need Durham. But no argument on the other point.

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1)  I don't dispute that the legislature chose which county in Western North Carolina to split based on considerations of what was best for the legislators that passed the bill. I never have. What I have objected to is special pleadings to the effect that the county lines of Buncombe were sancrosant. They simply are not. Every decade, redistricting splits counties that were previously intact. In some cases, and, in the vast majority of times in smaller counties, the folks in those counties don't like it. Historical arguments about county splits are piles of sophistry.

The legislature drew two districts in Western North Carolina with just two splits. There was no possible option to do it with one. Unlike South Central North Carolina, the lines in the Western two districts were clean. Arguing against the plan using country integrity arguments requires smuggling in a premise that larger counties have a greater right not to be split than smaller counties. It is that premise  that, rightly or wrongly, I reject.[/quote]

I'm not arguing so much that Buncombe county should not be the county that is split, rather that cities that form the commercial hub of a region should go in a district based in that region whenever it is feasible.

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None of your business. None of your business. Yes, I do.
[/quote]
And now I remember why I have you on ignore...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Since we're revisiting NC redistricting here, I may post some of the alternative NC maps's I've made (its the state I do the most in DRA), for everyone's enjoyment.

Ya know what, nevermind. If I post my maps, Bob will probably systematically go through them and circuitously argue about every little detail he thinks should be different. Nothing positive will come from that and I have more productive things to do than argue with an arrogant, condescending troll. 

Isn't that why you have him on ignore? I'd like to see your maps.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

Thanks

I do think the GOP would still be favored in CD5, but I made it as Dem-friendly as possible, so that it could possibly fall in another 2006 or 2008.

The rural counties in the 5th, unlike those in the the 7th or 8th, are actually ancestrally Republican; FDR couldn't even win Wilkes or Yadkin, IIRC.

Yeah, I don't think that district would be enough to sink Foxx. Those rural counties are too Republican.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

Thanks

I do think the GOP would still be favored in CD5, but I made it as Dem-friendly as possible, so that it could possibly fall in another 2006 or 2008.

The rural counties in the 5th, unlike those in the the 7th or 8th, are actually ancestrally Republican; FDR couldn't even win Wilkes or Yadkin, IIRC.

Yeah, I don't think that district would be enough to sink Foxx. Those rural counties are too Republican.

Yes, but if the Democrats were going for 9-4, she'd be the best Republican (other than Ellmers) to target.

Other than Foxx, they could make Jones' ancestrally Democratic district bluer and wait till he retires to launch a serious bid there; though in making Jones's district bluer, they'd probably have to weaken McIntyre.

The 9th would be a bad choice because Republicans there usually run way ahead of McCain's performance. McHenry, though a staunch partisan like Foxx, has a district that is solidly Republican at all levels. Finally, Coble's district is a vote sink for central NC, so Democrats would need to keep it

Wouldn't it be possible to confine Watt's district to Mecklenburg County, eliminate Myrick's district altogether, and replace it with a Democratic district based in Greensboro/Winston-Salem?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Thats kinda what I did for my nonpartisan map, which I'll post in a few hours. My court-drawn 12th is based almost entirely in Mecklenburg (with a few precincts from Cabarrus). Incidentally, though, I put W-S and Greensboro in separate districts.

As a resident of the NC-09, I think suburban/exurban Charlotte its own CoI, so I tend to keep southern Mecklenburg together with Gaston and Union.

I do, too, but as the previous map was intended as a gerrymander, CoI's get thrown out the window anyway.

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It's easy to deal with Gaston County- just dump it in the 10th. Union County is harder- it has to go to Kissell. In the version I'm working on at the moment, I compensated for this by pulling Kissell's district out of Cabarrus and Stanly as much as possible.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Thats kinda what I did for my nonpartisan map, which I'll post in a few hours. My court-drawn 12th is based almost entirely in Mecklenburg (with a few precincts from Cabarrus). Incidentally, though, I put W-S and Greensboro in separate districts.

As a resident of the NC-09, I think suburban/exurban Charlotte its own CoI, so I tend to keep southern Mecklenburg together with Gaston and Union.

I do, too, but as the previous map was intended as a gerrymander, CoI's get thrown out the window anyway.

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It's easy to deal with Gaston County- just dump it in the 10th. Union County is harder- it has to go to Kissell. In the version I'm working on at the moment, I compensated for this by pulling Kissell's district out of Cabarrus and Stanly as much as possible.

Maybe I'll revisit the Democratic map after I post this next one...would be worth trying.

Ughh...Union is nasty....probably my least favorite county in the state. If you give Union to Kissell, I'd recommend drawing a strip up the east side of Mecklenburg so that he can still pick up Charlotte Democrats. Something like this:



That district is 53.6/45.6 Obama and has a deviation of +44...not bad. I might try to work with that more.

Who would get Stanly and Cabarrus? Coble?

That district is similar to the one I have. Yes, Coble would probably get Stanly and Cabarrus.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

From a CoI standpoint, I agree that Greensboro and Winston-Salem should be in the same district. I don't think W-S anchors the rural counties in the northwest in the same way that Asheville anchors the rural counties in the west. I think it makes more sense to have an urban district in the Triad and a completely rural district in the northwest.

I'm working on my version of a nonpartisan map right now.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's "Plan A"



I used Huntersville and Cornelius to connect the western Charlotte suburbs to the eastern ones rather than go along the South Carolina border. I think it looks a bit cleaner, and I think they're a better fit (though I'm not really familiar with the precints along the South Carolina border, so I could be wrong here).

I'm not entirely happy with the result. I don't think Lexington and Salisbury belong in NC-5, and I don't like Central North Carolina paired with suburban Raleigh. But I'm not sure what can be done about it.

I still need to do "Plan B," but NC-9 will not exist in that plan in the same form. Gaston County will be put into NC-10.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Unfortunately, I accidentally closed the tab before I saved, so I don't have access to the data from the map I drew . Rest assured, however, that NC-1 is over 50% VAP Black. I think the Obama% in NC-12 is well over 60%, as it leaves out some of the most Republican precincts in Mecklenburg County. I copied your NC-11 for the sake of simplicity. I essentially did the same with your NC-1, but I think you may have taken more precincts in Durham than I did because I had to take more rural areas to bring it up to population. I might revisit this map some time in the future to make changes.

I think my biggest weakness in drawing North Carolina maps is that I tend to poorly estimate the population in the central part of the state. I didn't post my Democratic gerrymander because I couldn't confine Coble's Republican vote sink to the central part of the state no matter how hard I tried (trust me, it wasn't pretty). And now in my "impartial" map, I basically forced suburban Raleigh into a central North Carolina district.

In any case, I'll start working on "Plan B" either later tonight or tomorrow.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Making a "clean" Republican gerrymander is an interesting challenge, and one that I may take up when I'm done with "Plan B."

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

McCain districts
9 - 62.7
10 - 62.0
3 - 58.9
6 - 57.8
8 - 55.3
7 - 54.3
5 - 54.1
11 - 53.1
2 - 50.6

Obama districts
4 - 73.8 (34.5% VAP black, 50.2% VAP minorities)
1 - 68.1 (50.3% VAP black)
12 - 68.5 (35% VAP black, 53.9% VAP minorities)
13 - 52.4

Not bad.