Ongoing unrest/political disarray in Ethiopia
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  Ongoing unrest/political disarray in Ethiopia
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Author Topic: Ongoing unrest/political disarray in Ethiopia  (Read 2160 times)
Simfan34
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« on: July 21, 2012, 09:06:18 PM »

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is said to be deathly ill, having missed the AU annual meeting for the first time since he took office over 20 years ago. The latest reports are that he has blood cancer. No specifics on what type of blood cancer it is. His skin has that weird pale/yellowish tint that comes with blood cancers, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. The yellow tint can also be from pancreatic or liver cancer. The super fast weight loss makes me lean more towards pancreatic or liver, as I know of other blood cancers that don't result in weight loss.

At the same time, Muslims, who constitute about a third of the population, have taken to the streets protesting the alleged moves by the government  to interfere in their matters by pressuring them to accept a more moderate sect called Al Habash. It backfired and the government responded by arresting some of their leaders.

Anyone else hear of this?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2012, 01:47:25 PM »

No. Nobody reports on Ethiopia much except when they intervene in Eritrea or Somalia and we need to explain to ourselves why it's A-OK. So, in other words: thanks. Interesting.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2012, 01:51:26 PM »

I read a story about an Ethiopian born, US educated activist being arrested not too long ago.  I also know that the Ethiopian government monitors the internet in Orwellian fashion, blocking websites of the political opposition and arresting bloggers who seem to be anti-government.  Of course that is irrelevant for most of the country, because, as far as I am aware, only Addis Ababa has internet access at all via government approved wifi hotspots in coffee houses which provide dial-up level connections and are frequently down during business hours.

I had not heard about the Muslim protests, though (or, rather, I did not know of the sectarian nature of the protests).
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2012, 02:17:40 PM »

Ok, I did a little snooping around and, for those interested, here are some relevant articles.


The Telegraph reported last Wednesday that Prime Minister Zenawi was hospitalized in Brussel at a center for treatment of blood cancer, and he was reportedly in "critical condition."

The Atlantic, however, claims he has a stomach cancer.  It also notes that the Ethiopian government notified the press on Thursday that the Prime Minister is officially on "Sick Leave".

And here is a very interesting article that appeared today in an Ethiopian publication (or at least a publication by Ethiopians, I doubt it is hosted in the country due to its nature) that I suggest everyone interested in Ethiopia read.

The Tribune has an article about the Muslim protests.  There have been clashes between government forces and protesters involving tear gas and stones, though no casualties have been reported.

And here is another report on the protests, which claims hundreds of protesters were arrested and the protests were "as big as Tahrir Square."

It looks like this has been going on for quite a while now.  Last week somewhere between half a million and a million protesters took to the streets for religious reasons.  This article insinuates that the government fixed the census numbers and that Muslims are actually a majority in Ethiopia instead of Christians like Zenawi's government, which is a very interesting proposition.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2012, 03:12:33 PM »

Umm... How many Ethiopians are able to access the internet and read news web sites (even local ones) in English?

Btw, thanks for the heads-up. Ethiopia is a country which interests me.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2012, 03:55:35 PM »

Umm... How many Ethiopians are able to access the internet and read news web sites (even local ones) in English?

Btw, thanks for the heads-up. Ethiopia is a country which interests me.
Here is an article from 2010 talking about an upcoming major expansion in internet capacity.

It addresses how many...

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Last I heard, internet connections in Addis Ababa were slow, spotty, and unreliable, though the sources I have found are three to five years old, so maybe things are a bit better now.  However, I doubt there are anywhere close to 20 million subscribers, maybe a few hundred thousand.  Remember, Ethiopia has a population of over 84 million, with nearly 3.5 million in Addis Ababa alone.

As to English language penetration, I have no idea.  Simfan, do you know?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2012, 06:59:06 AM »
« Edited: July 23, 2012, 07:33:51 AM by Mid-evil carnival ride »

Umm... How many Ethiopians are able to access the internet and read news web sites (even local ones) in English?

Btw, thanks for the heads-up. Ethiopia is a country which interests me.
Here is an article from 2010 talking about an upcoming major expansion in internet capacity.

It addresses how many...

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Last I heard, internet connections in Addis Ababa were slow, spotty, and unreliable, though the sources I have found are three to five years old, so maybe things are a bit better now.  However, I doubt there are anywhere close to 20 million subscribers, maybe a few hundred thousand.  Remember, Ethiopia has a population of over 84 million, with nearly 3.5 million in Addis Ababa alone.

As to English language penetration, I have no idea.  Simfan, do you know?

They've been improving from what I've heard, but they're no more than a million internet users by now.

Keep in mind most Ethiopian websites are unreliable,  but I liked this:

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Meles has spent the last 25 years doing nothing short of changing the ways Ethiopians think, and frankly for the worse. In the highlands at least, people used think of themselves as residents of their respective province; those from Gonder were Gondere, those from Tigray were Tigrayway, those from Shewa were Shewawi, and so forth. While the Amhara are somewhat loath to think otherwise (many deny that the Amhara are a distinct group to begin with as opposed to a proto-national group), many now identify with their ethnolinguistic group- Oromo, Tigray, Gurage, etc. Politics have changed accordingly. Meles has created a snake pit, and while he's managed to keep the Amhara ANDM, Oromo OPDO, and Southern SEPDF (as they're all lumped in one party) subordinated to his Tigrayan TPLF, his successor must manage to balance these varying interests plus that of the opposition.

As for Muslims' percentage of the population, I doubt that they could be a majority. Most claims of fraud came from alleged undercounts of Addis Ababa and the Amhara region, the former being about 75% Orthodox and the latter 85% Orthodox. Much of this is concluded by discrepancies in birth rates. Combined with the explosive growth of Charismatic groups, there is no plausible way that I could see Muslims constituting a majority. The Church has been in decline though, due to its politicization, inability to relate with the population at large (services are often conducted in Ge'ez, essentially Ethiopia's Latin analogue, sometimes they're spoken in Amharic... in non-Amharic speaking regions), and loss of state church status after having had that since the 4th century AD (the second to do so)... whereas Orthodoxy was required to advance one's position the advent of the secular state removed that impetus. Here's a good page showing the general confusion of statistics. Unless the Oromo are far more Muslim than the statistics say, there's no way to crunch the numbers to  produce a Muslim majority.

Of course, the population has increased by about 10 million in the past 5 years, so there's no knowing what the situation on the ground is. Here's a good article on religious demographic trends.

Of course, had Meles worked on forging a comprehensive national identity as opposed to emphasizing ethnic differences, this would all be of a secondary nature. This was the eventual goal of the emperors- rolling all Ethiopians into that "Amhara" identity- here simply meaning Amharic speaking. The difficulty of dividing Ethiopians by ethnicity is that many are mixed- Haile Selassie himself was Oromo and Gurage yet is by definition the head Amhara. What!?

Although secondary school and beyond is supposedly in English, it's done poorly, yet people seem to have taken a liking to using it, regrettably.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2012, 07:52:46 AM »

More on the Amhara.

Meles messed us up in this regard, no doubt.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2012, 11:12:22 AM »

Thanks simfan, the pdf you linked to was an interesting read.  I still do not understand why Meles would ever have thought that dividing his country along ethnic lines was a good idea.  That just seems to be asking for sectarian violence and separatist movements.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2012, 02:32:30 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2012, 02:34:28 PM by Mid-evil carnival ride »

Thanks simfan, the pdf you linked to was an interesting read.  I still do not understand why Meles would ever have thought that dividing his country along ethnic lines was a good idea.  That just seems to be asking for sectarian violence and separatist movements.

Likely because he himself was an ethnic separatist. The TPLF's original manifesto called for an independent Tigray, but for whatever reason he decided he think he could benefit better from controlling the whole of Ethiopia and so the EPRDF is a federation of these ethnocentrist/regionalist movements. By dividing Ethiopia and its political factions along ethnic lines Meles has been able to play them off against one another to the benefit of the Tigrayans in general and his clique in particular. In the 90s a good deal of money, both earned revenues and aid, was funneled towards Tigray; not embezzled but simply spent disproportionally.

I think a change occurred after the war with Eritrea, many people were initially resentful that Eritrea had been allowed to become independent. Eritrea had been in the ethnocentrist/regionalist bloc, with the Eritrean PLF as the strongest faction in that bloc, but while the Derg could not suppress the EPLF when it faced other opposition, a united front might have. Of course, Meles and Eritrean leader Isyas Aferwerki were fairly close. Then, upon independence, Meles rebuffed suggestions (some from Jimmy Carter even, I believe) that he negotiate for a coastal outlet at Asseb, thus leaving Ethiopia landlocked. Come the war, people  were again upset by Meles's failure to rectify those issues plus accusations that the war hadn't  been fought as aggressively as it could have been and that despite winning millitarily by any standard, Ethiopia acquiesced to a treaty where most disputed territories were awarded to Eritrea.

While many of the people were of the "All-Amhara" type Pausewang refers to, there was clear dissent in other groups as well, particularly amongst his own Tigrayans. Some purges were made of people like Siye Abraha, who was particularly angered by the failure to press on the attack, SNNPR (the southern region) Pres. Abate Kisho, and the ceremonial President, Negasso Gidada. But I think Meles and his allies realized that things needed to pick up nationally in order to stem an nationwide wave of discontent. This is when we see more pro-growth policies, the adoption of more patriotic tones, and a degree of opening up, from 01' to 05'.

So you could imagine the shock of the EPRDF's poor showing in the 2005 elections, which they responded with suppression and a return to the restrictions on parties, the media, and so forth. Here we see the genius of the ethnic federalism, for in 2010 there was a half-hearted, Oromo-led pan-opposition movement that failed to generate either enthusiasm or a broad base of support- you had the movement's leader, Merera Gudina, make the designation of Oromo as a national language a major part of the platform, which was hardly enticing to any one but Oromos. As a result the opposition was heavily divided, a good deal on ethnic lines, and went from about ~175 seats to two. (thus inspiring the joke "what do a sports car and the opposition have in common...")

Like Seble said (heads up- Ethiopians are referred to by their first names, the second name is a patronymic), Meles has created a web that only he could navigate, and I fear what may happen if he's taken out of the equation. If I ran Ethiopia, act #1 would be to return to the traditional provinces (guess who made the map! Cheesy), or at least begin the transition. Well, first I'd really try to figure out what the actual demographic situation is before moving forwards.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2012, 06:40:38 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2012, 06:44:51 PM by Yelnoc »

Thanks for the info, Simfan.  I'm a big history nut for Classical Ethiopia (and the surrounding area) but I know shamefully little about the country's modern history.

EDIT:
This article about the whereabouts of Meles has sparked quite a stir.

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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2012, 01:57:05 PM »

Simfan, a three-part hypothetical question, since we were discussing the whole ethnic setup and the previous program of just trying to make everyone more or less Amhara:

  • Would you support the restoration of the monarchy?
  • Would anybody else in Ethiopia?
  • Would anybody non-Amhara? (I don't know if you're Amhara or not, so this ties into part 1 too, I guess.)
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Simfan34
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2012, 01:22:57 AM »

Absolutely!
Considering tens of thousands showed up to monarchist rallies in the early 1990s, I'd assume so.
Tigrayans might, Gurages maybe, some Oromo, Somalis and other southern groups would be decidedly opposed. (my background is Gurage, btw)
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2012, 01:31:20 AM »

At first glance, I would think that a restoration of the Ethiopian monarchy would be very popular among the people, seeing as all the real problems came under the Derg in post Sailese Ethiopia.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2012, 09:04:04 AM »

At first glance, I would think that a restoration of the Ethiopian monarchy would be very popular among the people, seeing as all the real problems came under the Derg in post Sailese Ethiopia.


Keep in mind that for many, particularly Oromos, Somalis, and other minority groups, the monarchy was a symbol of oppression.

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http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Global-Energy-Could-Change-as-the-Autocracies-of-Ethiopia-and-Eritrea-Fall-Apart.html
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2012, 10:43:38 AM »

Also in the news, ethnic clashes in southern Ethiopia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19028609
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Simfan34
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2012, 03:44:04 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2012, 03:56:12 PM by Gaius Antonius Messala »

Not this clan nonsense. The Borana and Garri are both Oromo groups. (I know the Borana are, not so sure about the Garri, they could be Somali.)

http://p.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/24/radical-islam-risesin-us-ally-ethiopia/

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No one knows what's going on:http://www.cpj.org/blog/2012/07/where-is-ethiopias-meles-zenawi-the-public-doesnt.php
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2012, 04:53:17 AM »

Meles has died in Belgium.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2012, 05:01:36 PM »

Here's a fairly interesting article from allAfrica which actually praises Meles's rule.  Realize as you read it that the author is brushing over a number of crimes committed by the regime, and Ethiopia is not as structural sound as he would lead us to believe.  For me, the most interesting (and frightening) bit of this unfolding saga is how a power vacuum in Ethiopia will effect the rest of the region.  I quoted the relevant bit below.

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For those of you without tl;dr syndrome, TIME actually has a decent article about his legacy here.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 10:07:10 PM »

An update on the tensions between Muslims and Christians. Below is only an excerpt from the article.

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Zioneer
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2012, 10:11:30 AM »

So why is the Ethiopian government doing this? Do they see any advantage to doing so?
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