Which unlikely scenario would happen first in Presidential races?

[BushKenya]

I'm not saying either are likely to happen in the next 20 years, but I'm curious as to what people think.  In Presidential Elections, Oklahoma is considered the reddest state in the union and Rhode Island is the bluest state in the union.

As for me, I'm going to say Oklahoma is more likely to go Democrat first because we just went deep red within the past 12 years.

[Jayhawker]

I think someone like Brian Schweitzer or Hillary Clinton could take the state before a lot of others. Democrats still have decent registration numbers in OK if I remember correctly, something Rhode Island Republicans can't say.

[ChairmanSanchez]

I think someone like Brian Schweitzer or Hillary Clinton could take the state before a lot of others. Democrats still have decent registration numbers in OK if I remember correctly, something Rhode Island Republicans can't say.

Agreed, but I could also see Lincoln Chafee as the GOP nominee winning Rhode Island. It made this choice a lot harder.

[Jayhawker]

I think someone like Brian Schweitzer or Hillary Clinton could take the state before a lot of others. Democrats still have decent registration numbers in OK if I remember correctly, something Rhode Island Republicans can't say.

Agreed, but I could also see Lincoln Chafee as the GOP nominee winning Rhode Island. It made this choice a lot harder.

Yeah, Chafee is about the only person the GOP could nominate that might even make the state close. I think the odds of Schweitzer or Clinton getting it in 2016 are much, much higher.

[Jerseyrules]

I think someone like Brian Schweitzer or Hillary Clinton could take the state before a lot of others. Democrats still have decent registration numbers in OK if I remember correctly, something Rhode Island Republicans can't say.

Agreed, but I could also see Lincoln Chafee as the GOP nominee winning Rhode Island. It made this choice a lot harder.

Yeah, Chafee is about the only person the GOP could nominate that might even make the state close. I think the odds of Schweitzer or Clinton getting it in 2016 are much, much higher.

What about Don Carcieri?  He hasn't actually ruled out a bid for 16 yet (Clinton has, and Schweitzer's pro-single payer stance would really hurt him.  Even if Clinton hadn't pledged not to run in 2016, she would be over 70, and another John McCain situation is the last thing Dems need, especially if Obama is re-elected this year.)