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Author Topic: Afghan election, 2014  (Read 1228 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« on: October 06, 2013, 01:51:52 pm »
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Notable candidates:

Abdullah Abdullah: We all know who this is, right?

Quayum Karzai: Current president's brother.

Zalmai Rassoul: Current foreign minister, one of his VP candidates is Ahmed Shah Massoud's brother, the other is a lady.

Abdul Rasul Sayyaf: Terrorist candidate. The guy who initially invited bin Laden to Afghanistan. The terrorist group in the Philippines is named in his honor.

Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: Former finance minister and World Bank official. One of his VP candidates is Adbul Rashid Dostum, the former Communist general turned Uzbek warlord.

Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai: Brother of the above.

Abdul Rahim Wardak: Former defense minister who was fired by parliament for being too pro-American/anti-terrorism, basically the neo-con candidate.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2013, 07:06:16 am »
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Would the Taliban be willing to back Sayyaf over disturbing the election? Would Karzai have the power to rig the election in his favour (no doubt that he would try)?
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2013, 09:04:42 am »
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One of his VP candidates is Adbul Rashid Dostum, the former Communist general turned Uzbek warlord.

lol
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2013, 10:06:53 am »
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Would the Taliban be willing to back Sayyaf over disturbing the election?
Sayyaf was an uneasy member of the Northern Alliance since the Taliban first rose to power, and has been a fairly influential member of parliament since the invasion. Guess.
So he's a pretty damn Conservative Pashto. Big deal. So he's an old warlord. Major count against him in the Taliban's book - he's one of the very people they originally arose to destroy.
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Would Karzai have the power to rig the election in his favour (no doubt that he would try)?
His name is Obama, and yes he does, more or less, and yes he will if it turns out to be necessary, of course. Just like he did last time.

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2013, 10:08:15 am »
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Taliban's view of these 'elections'
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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2014, 10:11:53 pm »
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So this is a few days away...

What if the Afghan elections actually work?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/02/opinion/bergen-afghan-elections/

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Afghans will go to the polls on Saturday to elect their second president since the overthrow of the Taliban in the winter of 2001.

You might be wondering: Why bother? After all, doom and gloom are supposedly the order of the day in Afghanistan. A Pew/USA Today poll in January found that slightly more than half of Americans believe the United States has mostly failed to achieve its goals in Afghanistan.

A month earlier, a CNN poll found that the Afghan War might well be the most unpopular war in American history. An overwhelming 82% of Americans are now opposed to the war. (At the start of 2014, the United States had 38,000 troops in Afghanistan.)

Dire predictions of a civil war breaking out after the withdrawal of U.S. and other NATO combat troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 have been a staple in the American media for years, including in quite sensible publications such as the New Yorker.

But a surprisingly under-reported set of developments has been taking place over the past several weeks in Afghanistan ahead of Saturday's presidential election. It shows that Afghans are not preparing for another civil war and instead a large majority of Afghans are planning to participate in the first democratic transition of power in Afghan history, while the presidential candidates are engaged in the kind of campaigning and deal-making that would gladden the heart of Bill Clinton.

Despite the entirely predictable efforts of the Taliban to disrupt the run up to the election, there is still likely to be a big turn out on Election Day. A suicide bomber wearing a military uniform, for instance, killed six police officers on Wednesday inside the Interior Ministry, which is both well protected and in the heart of downtown Kabul.

Even with the Taliban violence, recent polling by the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan found that 75% of Afghans said they wanted to vote. That is essentially the same finding of a separate poll taken almost a year ago that found that 76% of Afghans planned to vote.

Even allowing for some drop-off on Election Day, most Afghan experts I have talked to believe the turnout will likely be in the 60% to 70% range. Turnout in the previous presidential election in 2009 was only around 30%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2014, 06:08:08 am »
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Please ... these are not elections, but "elections".

There are about 10 million "ghost voters" in that country.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2014, 08:55:41 am »
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If Zalmai Rassoul makes the run-off, you can say the elections are rigged.

Otherwise, they are reasonably free.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2014, 06:44:40 am »
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Preliminary results show that Abdullah and Ghani will likely make it to the run-off:

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Although official preliminary results are not due till April 24, it looks increasingly likely Abdullah Abdullah will face a runoff with Ashraf Ghani, an ex-World Bank official with a programme of radical economic reform.

Ghani, a former finance minister, should score well in the north as his running mate Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek former guerrilla leader, holds sway over much of the region.

According to informal preliminary tallies from around the country, ex-foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul may come a distant third.

http://www.nation.com.pk/international/08-Apr-2014/rivals-cry-foul-as-soon-as-results-put-abdullah-leading
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2014, 08:15:36 am »
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With 10% of the vote in:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/13/us-afghanistan-election-idUSBREA3C07T20140413

Abdullah 41.9%
Ghani 37.6%
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2014, 11:51:20 am »
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An update courtesy of the NYTimes

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/world/asia/afghanistan-elections.html

I don't know enough about the electoral process in Afghanistan to have a legitimitely informed opinion, but it does sound like good news. We'll see.

Still not convinced Afghanistan has anything but but authoritarianism of one stripe or another in its future. But I'd find it ironic if these elections went off better than the ones in Iraq a few days from now.

Also, there're some results by province available if anyone with map-making skills feels the urge Wink
« Last Edit: April 26, 2014, 11:53:09 am by njwes »Logged
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2014, 12:06:49 pm »
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I really hope Abdullah wins, just because it'd be hilarious to hear the news media frequently mention a guy whose first and last name are identical. It'd probably be the first instance since RFK's assassination. Tongue
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njwes
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« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2014, 02:13:03 pm »
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I really hope Abdullah wins, just because it'd be hilarious to hear the news media frequently mention a guy whose first and last name are identical.

Hadn't thought about that. To my ears at least Abdullah Abdullah is harder than Sirhan Sirhan in a fast-moving news broadcast; expect a lot of broadcaster verbal flubs, though not near Eyjafjallajökull levels.

AA's conduct thus far and the breakdown of the results thus far is pretty fascinating. Obvious ethnic/tribal division, though hopelessly so. I truly hope the second round can go through without any 2009-style hijinks.

I haven't read much of the literature in the field for several years now, but I do wonder how the developments in Iraq and Afghanistan (and of course Arab Spring countries) have affected the academic study of democratic transitions.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2014, 06:59:46 pm »

Also, there're some results by province available if anyone with map-making skills feels the urge Wink

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njwes
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« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2014, 11:12:05 pm »
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Gracias!
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Governor Varavour
Simfan34
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« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2014, 11:47:06 pm »
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Either way, it appears we are winning.
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Frodo
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2014, 12:29:44 am »
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The end finally appears to be in sight.
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