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| | |-+  Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, 2014
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Author Topic: Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, 2014  (Read 2141 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #50 on: February 14, 2014, 09:06:41 am »
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Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

Will the Lib Dems be using deposit insurance next time round?

Looking at this result and at the general tenor of local by-election results that they've been having (at least in those seats where they're not a serious contender) the likely toll of lost deposits is likely to be well into three figures at GB£500 a pop.
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« Reply #51 on: February 14, 2014, 10:48:01 am »
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Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

Will the Lib Dems be using deposit insurance next time round?

Looking at this result and at the general tenor of local by-election results that they've been having (at least in those seats where they're not a serious contender) the likely toll of lost deposits is likely to be well into three figures at GB£500 a pop.

Easily. I'd imagine they'll still stand in all GB seats (ex. against the Speaker in Buckingham), they have to at least try and remain credible, but the next election will end up being a massive drain on funds for them through deposits.

If they want to go with their incumbents strategy they keep clinging on to, they'll have to figure out who they can afford to cut loose. I.E, what's the point in spending money to defend Leech in Manc' Withington, sitting on a majority of less than 2,000 in a seat with plenty of students, when there's Hazel Grove, an open seat, just down the road, where they'll need to hold the Tories back.

And even when this sort've worked in Eastleigh, they still lost more vote share than the Tories and went from 47% to 32%. They were very lucky that UKIP threw the kitchen sink at Eastleigh and the Tory candidate was a dud.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #52 on: February 16, 2014, 12:15:05 pm »

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #53 on: February 16, 2014, 12:49:08 pm »

Anyway, context is good, so let's have a list of historical majorities for constituencies including Wythenshawe.

Manchester Wythenshawe was created for the 1950 election and as well as the eponymous estate it crossed the Mersey to include the middle class suburbs of Didsbury and Barlow Moor. As Wythenshawe grew, Barlow Moor was removed for the 1955 election and Didsbury for 1974.

1950: Con 12.1, 1951: Con 12.9, 1955: Con 5.7, 1959: Con 2.3, 1964: Labour 8.5, 1966: Labour 17.3, 1970: Labour 10.5, 1974Feb Labour 25.8, 1974Oct Labour 31.6, 1979: Labour 26.6, 1983 Labour 25.2, 1987 Labour 28.2, 1992 Labour 32.1

By this point Wythenshawe's population was falling (in common with the rest of the City of Manchester), and so for 1997 the present constituency was formed. Labour's notional 1992 majority was 14.6.

1997: Labour 33.0, 2001 Labour 36.0, 2005 30.0, 2010 18.6
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #54 on: February 16, 2014, 04:31:40 pm »
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Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

Of the Lib seats?

Redcar or Withington potentially?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #55 on: February 16, 2014, 05:08:09 pm »
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Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

Rochdale?
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