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Question: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the house?
Yes   -5 (8.9%)
No   -51 (91.1%)
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Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House?  (Read 1729 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: July 22, 2012, 10:00:18 pm »
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I think most people agree that the Republicans are favourites to hold the House, but that's partially due to them gaining seats from redistricting and the retirement of Blue Dogs. Would the Democrats be favoured if Republicans couldn't pick up seats?

(Consider that this occurred in 1996).
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 12:18:50 am by Nichlemn »Logged

RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2012, 10:00:34 pm »
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No.
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2012, 12:45:00 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2012, 12:46:31 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2012, 12:48:42 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2012, 12:52:03 am »
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very unlikely but they should be able to gain some seats (maybe a dozen or half dozen). If it's any consolation, the dems should probably retake control the next time the GOP gets unified control in DC.
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Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2012, 12:52:21 am »
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Gross maybe 20 or so, net maybe 15. This is a best-case scenario as I see it right now, absent some sort of weird wave.
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2012, 12:52:27 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

Pretty much. The MD and IL gerrymanders don't come remotely close to making up for the gerrymanders in GA, FL, TX, OH, PA, VA, and MI. And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor. Meanwhile, blue states like CA, NY, and NJ had independent congressional redistricting.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 12:54:18 am by ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ »Logged
greenforest32
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2012, 01:13:12 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

Pretty much. The MD and IL gerrymanders don't come remotely close to making up for the gerrymanders in GA, FL, TX, OH, PA, VA, and MI. And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor. Meanwhile, blue states like CA, NY, and NJ had independent congressional redistricting.

I agree with these statements. While Ohio might get new maps via an independent redistricting initiative, the redistricting cycle as a whole has locked in many of the 2010 results. I don't think Democrats will net enough seats to take the House in 2012/2014 or even 2016.

They may fare better in the next redistricting cycle (2020) because it will take place after a presidential election as opposed to a midterm so turnout will be higher. Winning the governorships (PA, FL, etc) between 2018 and 2020 will be important if they want to undo existing R-gerrymanders/avoid new ones.

Democrats winning the Texas governorship in 2018 would really be interesting. They could probably net at least 6 seats in Texas with a neutralish map and new seats (another 4?) from the state's population gain between now and 2020.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 01:17:02 am by greenforest32 »Logged
Miles
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2012, 01:31:26 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

 And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor.

Redistricting in NC is purely a legislative process, the Governor has no role in it.

Back in the 1990's, the Democratic legislature didn't want to give Gov. Jim Martin (R) veto power because they were afraid he'd veto their maps. This time, it worked the Republicans' favor...
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2012, 07:44:37 am »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

 And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor.

Redistricting in NC is purely a legislative process, the Governor has no role in it.

Back in the 1990's, the Democratic legislature didn't want to give Gov. Jim Martin (R) veto power because they were afraid he'd veto their maps. This time, it worked the Republicans' favor...

Back then the prospect of the GOP taking the legislature was as remote a possibility as anything could be. But a GOP Governor was a real possibility since they had Martin at the time.

Though even if there was a veto, I am pretty sure that an override would have been possible as only one defection would have been necessary. What do you think about that Miles?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2012, 08:24:03 am »
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I had been warning Democrats since the day Obama was elected how seriously they needed to take the 2010 midterms due to the fact that it was a redistricting election.  They stupidly ignored me and now they will likely be locked out of the House and most state legislatures for a generation. 
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2012, 08:34:03 am »
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No. Somewhere between 8 and 12 seats - possibly.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2012, 10:11:22 am »
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The have about a 5% chance of doing so. Much more likely is a zero to 5 seat gain. That to me is about the top of the bell curve of possible outcomes at the moment. A 25 seat gain is about two standard deviations out. And the bell curve is not normally shaped. It drops from its top more steeply than normal. Gerrymanders here, there and everywhere, tend to not be friendly to normalcy when it comes to bell curve shapes. Who knew?  Smiley
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 10:12:56 am by Torie »Logged
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2012, 02:36:05 pm »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

Pretty much. The MD and IL gerrymanders don't come remotely close to making up for the gerrymanders in GA, FL, TX, OH, PA, VA, and MI. And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor. Meanwhile, blue states like CA, NY, and NJ had independent congressional redistricting.

I agree with these statements. While Ohio might get new maps via an independent redistricting initiative, the redistricting cycle as a whole has locked in many of the 2010 results. I don't think Democrats will net enough seats to take the House in 2012/2014 or even 2016.

They may fare better in the next redistricting cycle (2020) because it will take place after a presidential election as opposed to a midterm so turnout will be higher. Winning the governorships (PA, FL, etc) between 2018 and 2020 will be important if they want to undo existing R-gerrymanders/avoid new ones.

Democrats winning the Texas governorship in 2018 would really be interesting. They could probably net at least 6 seats in Texas with a neutralish map and new seats (another 4?) from the state's population gain between now and 2020.

Democrats need to start planning now to make 2018 a big Dem year.  They need to win governorships in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in order to block and break apart current GOP gerrymanders. 
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2012, 02:54:50 pm »
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Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

Smiley

I used to think 25 was possible, but redistricting was a cruel mistress Sad

 And somehow NC ended up with a Republican gerrymander despite a Democratic governor.

Redistricting in NC is purely a legislative process, the Governor has no role in it.

Back in the 1990's, the Democratic legislature didn't want to give Gov. Jim Martin (R) veto power because they were afraid he'd veto their maps. This time, it worked the Republicans' favor...

Back then the prospect of the GOP taking the legislature was as remote a possibility as anything could be. But a GOP Governor was a real possibility since they had Martin at the time.

Though even if there was a veto, I am pretty sure that an override would have been possible as only one defection would have been necessary. What do you think about that Miles?

Thats a good question. The R's would already have the votes in the Senate to override a veto, but they'd actually need to peel-off 4 Democrats in the House (to get 72/120). Some of the more conservative Democrats are from the southeastern region, IIRC, so I don't think they'd vote for a plan that hurt McIntyre. Still, given the Democrats' general lack of unity during the budget dealings, an override wouldn't seem impossible.
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Nagas
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2012, 03:12:04 pm »
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Have we worked out the amount if safe, lean, and toss-up Congressional seats?
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2012, 04:11:38 pm »
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Have we worked out the amount if safe, lean, and toss-up Congressional seats?

Fuzzy and I made a map like that a few months ago, but I'll probably update it soon.
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Nagas
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2012, 04:12:47 pm »
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Have we worked out the amount if safe, lean, and toss-up Congressional seats?

Fuzzy and I made a map like that a few months ago, but I'll probably update it soon.

I'd love to help. Would be great to have a good guess as to what the House will look like before election day. Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2012, 05:57:02 pm »
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Have we worked out the amount if safe, lean, and toss-up Congressional seats?

Fuzzy and I made a map like that a few months ago, but I'll probably update it soon.

I'd love to help. Would be great to have a good guess as to what the House will look like before election day. Smiley

Sure, any help would be appreciated.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2012, 07:23:05 pm »
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Is Nate Silver going to make 2012 projections for the House races?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/do-democrats-have-a-shot-at-the-house/
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2012, 07:31:49 pm »
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I had been warning Democrats since the day Obama was elected how seriously they needed to take the 2010 midterms due to the fact that it was a redistricting election.  They stupidly ignored me and now they will likely be locked out of the House and most state legislatures for a generation. 

Haha. Oh man you're so important.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: July 23, 2012, 11:34:31 pm »
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Is Nate Silver going to make 2012 projections for the House races?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/do-democrats-have-a-shot-at-the-house/

I think he will around August/September.
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« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2012, 12:02:30 pm »
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Redistricting and the stalled economic recovery changed things for the Dems in the later part of the yr.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2012, 01:35:43 pm »
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With a narrow Obama Win the Democrats will probaly pick up a net less than 10 seats.
With a narrow Romney win the Democrats might even lose a net few seats
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