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Author Topic: MN SUSA: Obama 46 Romney 40  (Read 526 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: July 22, 2012, 10:26:30 pm »
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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7eeab57a-eb71-47e3-aed7-5cab8493d94f

Obama 46
Romney 40
Other 7
Undecided 7

Down from a double digit lead in previous polls to probably a more realistic split. Still looks safe for Obama.

BTW I hate when they include "other" in a poll.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2012, 10:37:07 pm by Minnesota Mike »Logged
Governor NVGonzalez
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2012, 10:30:28 pm »
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Looks like Gary Johnson may have a shot at 2%
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Quote from: A Serious King™ on July 26, 2011, 11:52:55 am
Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2012, 10:35:31 pm »
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I kind of want Romney to make a visit just so I can protest him.
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Lief
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E: -5.81, S: -6.54

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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2012, 10:47:20 pm »
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Isn't SUSA really bad at polling Minnesota for some reason?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2012, 11:00:43 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on July 22, 2012, 10:47:20 pm
Isn't SUSA really bad at polling Minnesota for some reason?

Yes. In 2008 they had Obama and McCain basically tied all year.

For your conspiracy theorists  KSTP, which sponsors the SUSA  polls, is owned by Stanley Hubbard who is a major Minnesota GOP donor. 
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True Federalist
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2012, 11:59:13 pm »
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Poll entered:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2720120719019
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“Always it is easier to pay homage to prophets than to heed the direction of their vision.”
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Read Fat Man on a Diet, an alternate history in which the history of atomic weapons does not go as it did in our timeline.
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Ernest
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2012, 12:03:10 am »
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It's a likely voter poll, whereas SUSA's previous polls had been registered voters, so that accounts for a few percent of the change.  Still, without some confirmation, I'm not prepared to consider Minnesota any closer than 10% right now.
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“Always it is easier to pay homage to prophets than to heed the direction of their vision.”
                Clinton Lee Scott
Read Fat Man on a Diet, an alternate history in which the history of atomic weapons does not go as it did in our timeline.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2012, 12:18:06 am »
Yeah, that looks alright.

If Obama is ahead by about 1-3% nationally at the moment, then MN should be about 3-5% more DEM than the nation (like it has been in previous elections).
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MorningInAmerica
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E: 5.55, S: 0.52

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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2012, 09:53:32 am »
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This Likely Voter poll uses a party ID of D+6, compared to 2008's D+4
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2012, 10:17:40 am »
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on July 23, 2012, 09:53:32 am
This Likely Voter poll uses a party ID of D+6, compared to 2008's D+4

SUSA's topline results are always one of the best.

The crosstabs have mostly big margins of error though.

For example their latest FL poll was R+2, yet Obama was ahead by 5.
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