Hashemite's Random Numbers and Stats about French elections

[Hashemite]

The greatness of the OVF on Geoclip has made me waste tons of time coming up with really random numbers and stats about French elections, mostly comparing election results with other elections or with demographic indicators.

I love calculating the correlation coefficient between two variables. That's the only thing I remember about Grade 11 math. Some of the results are really fascinating. If you don't know the correlation coefficient, you should look it up on Wiki.

Before I track down some of my more interesting stats, here are some interesting correlations:

Sarko (R1 2012) vs. median HH income: 0.41 (I think it's stronger of a correlation than in 2007)
Le Pen (R1 2012) vs. % of ouvriers: 0.466
Le Pen (R1 2012) vs. % of salariat modeste (ouvriers+employees): 0.475
Le Pen (R1 2007) vs. ouvriers: 0.471
But... Le Pen (R1 2002) vs. ouvriers: 0.237 (!)

White and null, R2 2012 vs Le Pen R1 2012: 0.58 (yeah...)
Evolution of abstention between both rounds, 2012 vs. Le Pen R1 2012: -0.49 (as expected: negative correlation between higher turnout in the runoff and Le Pen results)

And a little amusing one for kicks:
Sarko R1 2012 vs. Boutin R1 2002: 0.37

I'm working on some very cool stats about the 2005 referendum. I also picked up some very interesting (and myth-squashing) numbers about the FN vote in 88 and the 90s which I should put up. Eventually, I'll get around to doing something about the Catholic vs. Protestant vote in rural Alsace.

[Californian Tony]

Correlation coefficients are a great thing. Shame I've more or less forgotten how to work them out.

Looking forward to what you come with.

[Hashemite]

Correlation coefficients are a great thing. Shame I've more or less forgotten how to work them out.

I've forgotten how to work them out to, but =CORREL(x,x) on Excel hasn't

[Californian Tony]

Correlation coefficients are a great thing. Shame I've more or less forgotten how to work them out.

I've forgotten how to work them out to, but =CORREL(x,x) on Excel hasn't

Great, I'll try to experiment as well.

[Vasall des Midas]

Evolution of abstention between both rounds, 2012 vs. Le Pen R1 2012: -0.49 (as expected: negative correlation between higher turnout in the runoff and Le Pen results)

Turnout rose modestly in the Ile-de-France, and massively in the overseas possessions, and was effectively flat everywhere else, so, yeah. Probably no causation here.

[Hashemite]

Various correlations with 2012 candidates (first round)

Melenchon vs. median HH income: -0.27
Joly vs. median HH income: 0.19
Hollande vs. median HH income: -0.14
Bayrou vs. median HH income: 0.29

Joly vs. CPIS: 0.33
Joly vs. uni diploma/degree: 0.48
Joly vs. ouvriers: -0.47

[Californian Tony]

Joly vs. uni diploma/degree: 0.48

Expected, but wow. That's the single strongest coefficient so far.