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Author Topic: MI: Public Policy Polling: Obama up double-digits  (Read 985 times)
realisticidealist
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« on: July 25, 2012, 10:29:24 am »
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New Poll: Michigan President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-07-23

Summary: D: 53%, R: 39%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2012, 10:30:08 am »
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Junk poll!
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olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2012, 10:32:19 am »
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Yipee
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2012, 10:41:35 am »
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Leave it to PPP to give Obama his biggest lead of any pollster in Michigan for the last 6 months.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Senator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2012, 10:47:48 am »
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I have to agree with Krazen on this one. No way Obama's up double here. High singles, maybe, but not double.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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ajb
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2012, 10:51:27 am »
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Because somebody needs to say it:

Partisan breakdown in this poll: D 32 R 28 I 40

Partisan breakdown in MI in 2008, per the exit polls: D41 R 29 I 29

So by the reasoning of many on this board, this poll is likely to underestimate Obama's lead in Michigan.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2012, 10:57:58 am »
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You have to go all the way back to February to find a poll that comes even close to PPPs results.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2012, 10:59:56 am »
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Because somebody needs to say it:

Partisan breakdown in this poll: D 32 R 28 I 40

Partisan breakdown in MI in 2008, per the exit polls: D41 R 29 I 29

So by the reasoning of many on this board, this poll is likely to underestimate Obama's lead in Michigan.


Your replication of that reasoning is quite incorrect. When partisan breakdown is examined, it is typically done by using factual registration counts from the state, not some dubious other poll.
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ajb
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2012, 11:15:06 am »
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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?
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Reds4
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2012, 11:33:30 am »
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Romney isn't ahead by a point like other polling is showing.. Obama likely isn't ahead by 14.. maybe Obama by 8 or so would be my guess.
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2012, 11:37:09 am »
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Michigan is Likely Democratic, end of story. Detractors can't even blame an unfavorable sample for this one, because has a lot less Democrats than the actual registration numbers of the state.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2012, 11:41:56 am »
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The rasmussen poll is right Obama +6.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2012, 11:43:44 am »
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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2012, 11:45:50 am »
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Michigan is Likely Democratic, end of story. Detractors can't even blame an unfavorable sample for this one, because has a lot less Democrats than the actual registration numbers of the state.

That is amusing, given that Michigan has no partisan registration.

Facts are a tricky thing.
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mondale84
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2012, 11:53:30 am »
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Michigan is Likely Democratic, end of story. Detractors can't even blame an unfavorable sample for this one, because has a lot less Democrats than the actual registration numbers of the state.

That is amusing, given that Michigan has no partisan registration.

Facts are a tricky thing.

The fact is that in 2008 the party id (according to exits) was:
41% Dem
29% Rep
29% Indy

This sample shows:

32% Dem
28% Rep
40% Indy

If anything, this poll should underestimate Obama's lead which doesn't make any sense because he probably isn't up 14. Still, Obama is definitely UP and we know he's going to win the state, stop trolling and deluding yourself by only accounting for polls that the media fabricates to prop up the narrative of a close race.
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ajb
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2012, 11:56:54 am »
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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.
Where are they getting their numbers of historical partisan identification nationwide, if not from things like exit polls?
And how are they estimating partisan id in states like Michigan that don't have partisan registration? Because it's pretty difficult to get an accurate sum when some of the numbers are complete unknowns.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2012, 12:06:17 pm »
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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.
Where are they getting their numbers of historical partisan identification nationwide, if not from things like exit polls?
And how are they estimating partisan id in states like Michigan that don't have partisan registration? Because it's pretty difficult to get an accurate sum when some of the numbers are complete unknowns.

I presume they use gallup surveys and other national surveys of the public that have historically been shown to be consistent and reliable, as opposed to, say, dubious exit polling that often times is proven wrong within minutes.



Whether you choose to believe PPP or 7 other pollsters is up to you. Certainly nobody can change your mind.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2012, 12:09:43 pm »
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This polling firm has become laughable.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2012, 12:13:10 pm »
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I'm not arguing that PPP is biased.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2012, 12:29:11 pm »
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Nate Silver on Michigan/PPP
(1) No the Michigan polls don't make any sense (2) Just average them, m'kay? (3) Would be nice to get a top-shelf pollster involved there.
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« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2012, 12:38:45 pm »
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Michigan is Likely Democratic, end of story. Detractors can't even blame an unfavorable sample for this one, because has a lot less Democrats than the actual registration numbers of the state.

That is amusing, given that Michigan has no partisan registration.

Facts are a tricky thing.

That was an error, but the FACT still stands. The data I was looking at is based off the previous exit poll and my point still stands that the sample is less Democratic than it could have realistically been. The sample has less Democrats than the 2004 exit poll.

Michigan is Likely Democratic, end of debate.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2012, 12:40:37 pm by DrScholl »Logged
mondale84
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« Reply #21 on: July 25, 2012, 12:52:59 pm »
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This polling firm has become laughable.

And your posts have always been laughable.
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ajb
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« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2012, 01:03:10 pm »
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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.
Where are they getting their numbers of historical partisan identification nationwide, if not from things like exit polls?
And how are they estimating partisan id in states like Michigan that don't have partisan registration? Because it's pretty difficult to get an accurate sum when some of the numbers are complete unknowns.

I presume they use gallup surveys and other national surveys of the public that have historically been shown to be consistent and reliable, as opposed to, say, dubious exit polling that often times is proven wrong within minutes.



Whether you choose to believe PPP or 7 other pollsters is up to you. Certainly nobody can change your mind.

I'm just curious to know how Gallup's partisan ID numbers have been proven reliable, when there's nothing to confirm them against.
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HockeyDude
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« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2012, 01:06:05 pm »
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Doesn't PPP have a decent track record?  As in, actual numbers?  Both sides have to stop spinning everything so hardcore but all the Republicans who constantly troll here (bar a few that have been here a long time and make sense) all sound like 14 year old members of their junior high school Republican Students Club.  

That said, Obama's not up 14.  Romney's not up 1.  I think Obama is probably winning by 7 or 8.  Remember, he crushed McCain here by 17, and that was not just an anomaly.  Northern suburbs trended hard towards Obama across the Midwest. 
« Last Edit: July 25, 2012, 01:12:58 pm by AWallTEP81 »Logged

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2012, 01:13:03 pm »
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This may be high for now, but it is the likely result.

Rasmussen uses a "likely voter" screen which well fits an off-year or midterm election. Debbie Stabenow would be fighting for her political life if she faced a 2010-style electorate.  

Mitt Romney hasn't lived in Michigan since he was a young adult. He has had no public office while in Michigan.

Barack Obama is a good cultural match for Michigan, a state that usually looks available to Republicans who then waste effort and money on the state before the unions begin their GOTV drive. The state is acting much as it did in 2008.

The Mitchell poll is an outlier. Average PPP and Rasmussen and you get 10% -- which I am about to accept for now.

Doesn't PPP have a decent track record?  As in, actual numbers?  Both sides have to stop spinning everything so hardcore but all the Republicans who constantly troll here (bar a few that have been here a long time and make sense) all sound like 14 year old members of their junior high school Republican Students Club.   

Yes it does. It got the 2008 and 2010 electoral results very well.

Michigan -- fringe of contention for the GOP.
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