PA: Public Policy Polling: Obama on top by six

[realisticidealist]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-07-23

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MorningInAmerica]

Race is tied 45-45 is Rice is VP
47-43 if Pawlenty is nominee
48-43% if Jindal is nominee
47-40% if Portman is the nominee.

If you believe PPP (which i tend not to), then Pennsylvania is in contention.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I don't see how Obama is up by 6 here and 14 in Michigan. PA, as usual, will probably be about 3% more Democratic than the national average.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Also, it seems that even without undecideds, Romney is pulling 12% of Democrats while Obama has 13% of Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

I don't see how Obama is up by 6 here and 14 in Michigan. PA, as usual, will probably be about 3% more Democratic than the national average.

1. Michigan has its conservative zones, but nothing like Pennsylvania. Take away greater Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and the Scranton-Allentown corridor and Pennsylvania votes like Alabama. Take away Greater Detroit from Michigan and the state is about 50-50 in its voting.

2. Michigan has far more African-Americans. That is the difference between Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota.

3. Barack Obama is a good cultural match to Michigan.

4. Michigan relies much more on the auto industry than does Pennsylvania. It is arguable that Ohio and even Indiana rely more heavily on the auto industry than does Pennsylvania. "Let Detroit go bankrupt" is more of an insult in Michigan and Ohio than in Pennsylvania.

5. Pennsylvania went D late in 2008. That may happen again in 2012.

[krazen1211]

Very good poll. PA Democrats have a 5 point higher ceiling and floor than PA Republicans.

[Lief]

If Obama is leading by 2-3% nationally, then a six point lead in Pennsylvania makes sense.

[ajb]

I don't see how Obama is up by 6 here and 14 in Michigan. PA, as usual, will probably be about 3% more Democratic than the national average.

Obama won PA by 10, and MI by 17, in 2008. So the spread between the two PPP polls today seems reasonable.

[timothyinMD]

I don't see how Obama is up by 6 here and 14 in Michigan. PA, as usual, will probably be about 3% more Democratic than the national average.

Obama won PA by 10, and MI by 17, in 2008. So the spread between the two PPP polls today seems reasonable.

The MI poll is a joke.  Obama's not up 14.  Probably 6 like Rasmussen said

[Ljube]

Race is tied 45-45 is Rice is VP
47-43 if Pawlenty is nominee
48-43% if Jindal is nominee
47-40% if Portman is the nominee.

If you believe PPP (which i tend not to), then Pennsylvania is in contention.

Then Romney should select Rice as VP. Obviously, Rice brings women, African Americans and security and foreign policy conscious voters to Romney, enough to tip the scale.

[angus]

I registered to vote in Pennsylvania today.  Woo hoo!  The choices were D, R, L, other, and unaffiliated.  I went with unaffiliated.

I'm still with Romney for President.  Not sure about the other offices, though.   

[Ljube]

If the election is decided by one vote in PA, we will know it was you.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Damn carpetbaggers.

[angus]

Haven't seen much RomneyLove so far.  Been livin' here about a month, and I've seen quite a few interesting trends--Who woulda thought the mullet was still popular?!  Guess that's Pennsylvania for ya--but I haven't seen much evidence of RomneyLove.  Lots of ObamaLove, though, and a respectable amount of Paultardization.  Commendable.  Mullets and Paultards and Obamaniacs.  Not much left for Mittens.  

[opebo]

Haven't seen much RomneyLove so far.  Been livin' here about a month, and I've seen quite a few interesting trends--Who woulda thought the mullet was still popular?!  Guess that's Pennsylvania for ya--but I haven't seen much evidence of RomneyLove.  Lots of ObamaLove, though, and a respectable amount of Paultardization.  Commendable.  Mullets and Paultards and Obamaniacs.  Not much left for Mittens.  

Your anecdote would be more useful if we knew to which part of that state you migrated, wanderer.

[Torie]

Haven't seen much RomneyLove so far.  Been livin' here about a month, and I've seen quite a few interesting trends--Who woulda thought the mullet was still popular?!  Guess that's Pennsylvania for ya--but I haven't seen much evidence of RomneyLove.  Lots of ObamaLove, though, and a respectable amount of Paultardization.  Commendable.  Mullets and Paultards and Obamaniacs.  Not much left for Mittens.  

Do you live in Lancaster City? As you well know, that place and a few appending blocks are a very different place from most of the balance of the county.

[Senator Snowstalker]

The city is mostly Hispanic and very Democratic, yes.

[angus]

Haven't seen much RomneyLove so far.  Been livin' here about a month, and I've seen quite a few interesting trends--Who woulda thought the mullet was still popular?!  Guess that's Pennsylvania for ya--but I haven't seen much evidence of RomneyLove.  Lots of ObamaLove, though, and a respectable amount of Paultardization.  Commendable.  Mullets and Paultards and Obamaniacs.  Not much left for Mittens.  

Do you live in Lancaster City? As you well know, that place and a few appending blocks are a very different place from most of the balance of the county.

apparently not.  Here, there are boroughs, cities, and townships.  And, you may live in a particular township's school district but in a different borough than another school's.  It's all very confusing.

Anyway, I live in the Manheim township, although my address is Lancaster PA 17601, and, as far as I can tell, not in any borough.  Actually, I live in Fruitville.  The spot on the map is printed Fruitville, but when I tell folks I live in Fruitville, they appear not to know what I'm talking about.  To add to the confusion, they only give you one license plate here--sounds easy, right?--but that one costs as two in most other states.  To make up for it, they give you two windshield stickers.  Apparently one is for an "inspection" and the other is for "emission inspection."  It's some sort of rook.  I think all these gas station/mechanics have some major lobby in the state legislature.  My car has no stickers in the windows and two license plates, and it will remain thus till my Iowa registration expires next march.  I'll deal with the complexities of registering a car in Pennsylvania only when I have to.  Same with the driver's license.

I did register to vote, though.  Manheim Township. 

Lancaster is a county with about 500 thousand residents, about 60 thousand of whom live in the city of Lancaster.  It's a bit deceiving.  In Black Hawk county, where I moved here from, the county seat (Waterloo) also has about 60 thousand residents, but it's very different.  The tallest building in Waterloo is maybe 15 stories.  In lancaster there are many buildings taller than that.  Lancaster is much denser.  I'd guess that the 60K residents are squeezed into maybe 8 square miles, whereas Waterloo's 60K residents are spread out over an area probably four times that size.  Lancaster, like every other city I've encountered in Pennsylvania so far, is dirty, crowded, and filthy, and it takes about ten minutes to drive two miles. 

No mexicans, either.  What a drag.  It is quite surprising.  Even in Iowa there's a respectable Mexican community.  Not like in California or Texas, but you could buy El Yucateco salsa verde and fresh jalapenos for 99 cents per pound in every store, large or small.  Not so here.  Hard to find the good stuff.  (Not that there's any shortage of spanish-language speakers--in fact everything here is printed in English, Spanish, and Vietnamese, just like in Texas or California.  Just no Mexicans, which is a serious cramp on my eating style.)  Fear not!  I have found sources of decent tortillas, chiles, beans, and salsas rojas y verdes near enough to ride a bicycle there and back within 20 minutes from my crib.  Decent Asian stores too.  One Chinese, about 2 miles away, and a Vietnamese one a bit farther.  Indian stores too.  And I've discovered all the decent ethnic all-u-can-eat buffets locally.  Indian about 2 miles away.  Lots of chinese buffets.  We have identified our favorite.  It's funny, you know, how that works.  When you're in belize, chinese buffets have a belizean accent.  When you're in Iowa they have a Mexican accent.  Here, the chinese buffets have a puertorican accent.

On balance, I'd agree with the statement:  the city seems different than the balance of the county.  Actually, so does Manheim township.  Manheim is white-collar, sort of YUMP, more white than Lancaster city.  Lancaster city is, of course, lancaster city.  White flight, urban decay, lots of good ethnic food.  So Lancaster County, and its immediate northern neighbor Manheim Township (not to be confused with Manheim Borough, which is about three miles--and a world--away from here, if you're trying to look it up) are both different than the "balance of the county."  The balance of the county is pretty much like most of Iowa:  Miles of cornfields, two-lane roads, and Amish farmers slowing up the traffic with their horse-drawn carriages. 

Well, except that it rains here.  Lots.  Maybe too much.  (Apparently it no longer rains in Iowa.)

[Senator Snowstalker]

As a fellow Lancastrian, I'd like to welcome you to the county. I know folks in Manheim--I'm in East Lampeter, which is also just outside of the city. It has problems, but it's a nice city overall when you get used to the dirt (it's also improved over the years quite a bit).

[angus]

Much obliged snowstalker.  Excellent use of the demonym as well!

Actually, my understanding is that Lampeter-Strasburg is the other really good school district hereabouts.  Some of my colleagues have opted to live there.  It was a bit rural for my tastes, but apparently in some parts rather upscale.  Willow street for the cafe-au-lait crowd.  Even has its own ZIP code, I think.  I'm more of a Wal-mart man myself, and I'm not too keen on being too far out in the sticks, so Manheim Township suits me fine. 

Do you bicycle through Lancaster?  I used to cycle to work every day in Cedar Falls.  Here, it's a bit of a challenge.  It's not the distance--I can go a few miles; or the heat and humidity--although it is certainly warmer and more humid than the Great Plains; and it really isn't the high density.  Certainly the population density in town is extremely high by US standards, but I cycled regularly the five years I lived in Boston, as well as during the semester that I lived in Amsterdam and the summer I worked in Manhattan, and those cities are all much denser than Lancaster.  It's getting to the other side of the 283 freeway that's the challenge.  I have to cross either at Lititz, Fruitville, Manheim, or 741, all of which cause me great stress.  In Lampeter, you're already on that side of 30.  That's an advantage. 

[Senator Snowstalker]

Don't do much biking. I'm not in LS--I'm in CV, but literally on the border between the two districts. Our house is at the edge of a woodland, which lessens the terrible heat. The city is relatively easy to get into by car from where I am, despite the traffic. It's also tourist season, which makes it far worse. Things loosen up in the winter.

[patrick1]

Angus, welcome back and glad your move went well.

My step-sisters grew up in Lititz and iirc went to Manheim Township high school. Maybe it was just their circle of friends but I remember the place was crawling with Whiskey Tangos.

[angus]

the place was crawling with Whiskey Tangos.

Probably, but I cannot imagine any part of Pennsylvania to which this independent clause would not apply.

[patrick1]

the place was crawling with Whiskey Tangos.

Probably, but I cannot imagine any part of Pennsylvania to which this independent clause would not apply.

Haha, I agree but you have a broad spectrum of Whiskey Tangos. As you mentioned they are more of the hayseed, mullet variety while the Philly breed is a different type altogether.  The Philly species tends to be much more aggressive particularly when defended their nests: Lincoln Financial, Citizens Bank Park, or the Wells Fargo center.

Anyway, Obama wins PA handily.

[Torie]

Last year Angus, I probably cruised very near where you live if it is just north of the main highway going east-west, where all the hotels are just north of the highway. I took a drive through the housing hood just to the north. It is quite pleasant - if prosaic.