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Author Topic: My best-case scenario for Obama  (Read 824 times)
WhyteRain
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« on: July 25, 2012, 07:49:54 pm »
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Obama -  266
Romney - 266

Romney recaptures just four Bush states that McCain lost in 2008:  Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

I originally gave Iowa to Obama, but then I realized (1) if this map is correct, then Iowa will be the closest state and (2) then Iowa would decide the election.  So I thought it would be fun to show Iowa as "undecided".
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2012, 07:58:12 pm »
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For the moment, I tend to agree that if the election is this close, your map will be the map. But a lot could change between now and November as to state relative performance at the margins, and it may not be that skin tight. One of the two candidates might manage to pull off a 52-47 "landslide." Smiley
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Supersonic
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2012, 08:01:38 pm »
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I don't feel that this is Obama's best case, although I think that this will end up being the map in November, of course barring exceptional circumstances i.e. economic collapse, big Romney tax scandal.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2012, 08:11:35 pm »
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I don't feel that this is Obama's best case, although I think that this will end up being the map in November, of course barring exceptional circumstances i.e. economic collapse, big Romney tax scandal.

I understand.  That's why I called it "my" best case scenario for Obama.  If you look at my real prediction map (or have seen some of my comments on the subject), you'll see I'm predicting -- and have predicted since last year -- an easy GOP win.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2012, 08:15:43 pm »
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Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you honestly think that's the "best" Obama could do? Obama is leading polls in Ohio, Virginia, and some in Florida, he's definitely still in the race for those states, so to say that even in his "best" performance he wouldn't win those is absurd.
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2012, 08:18:39 pm »
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I think Obama won't win Florida. He is definitely in the race for Virginia and Ohio.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2012, 08:21:16 pm »
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This is Obama's best in my opinion. Florida is on a knife edge though.

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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2012, 08:22:28 pm »
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Hackish post is hackish.

Obama's best case scenario is 332.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2012, 08:24:48 pm »
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On one hand, I still have a hunch that we're taking New Hampshire for granted. It has all the makings of a state that could easily swing--wealthy, fiscally conservative, and a large number of independents. I'd say that, barring a complete collapse on either side, the realistic best-case scenarios are:



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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2012, 08:27:15 pm »
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Romney doing worse than McCain is impossible.
Obama's best case is 303.
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2012, 08:37:36 pm »
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You obviously don't know what best case scenario means, because that certainly isn't it. The best case scenario would be Obama holding all the states he won last time or only losing Indiana and/or North Carolina.
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Ljube
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2012, 08:46:36 pm »
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I thought realistic best case.

This is my projection I made in February this year and I stick to it.



According to my opinion, Obama's best case is for him to win all tossup states in my projection and that would be 303.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2012, 08:48:10 pm »
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On one hand, I still have a hunch that we're taking New Hampshire for granted. It has all the makings of a state that could easily swing--wealthy, fiscally conservative, and a large number of independents. I'd say that, barring a complete collapse on either side, the realistic best-case scenarios are:



Swap Minnesota for Michigan and I think you have my prediction map.  :-)
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2012, 08:51:17 pm »
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I thought realistic best case.

This is my projection I made in February this year and I stick to it.



According to my opinion, Obama's best case is for him to win all tossup states in my projection and that would be 303.


Well, it's a good map, but why all the "toss-ups"?  Heck, if Romney wins all the toss-ups on your map, then it's practically my prediction map which was set up in Nov 2011.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2012, 08:54:41 pm »
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I thought realistic best case.

This is my projection I made in February this year and I stick to it.



According to my opinion, Obama's best case is for him to win all tossup states in my projection and that would be 303.


I would probably swap Pennsylvania for Wisconsin, but, otherwise, this is pretty much spot on.
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2012, 09:59:12 pm »
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Obama Best Case
Pretty much, I gave Obama every swing state, plus all the states he came within 5 points of winning in 2008. We end up creating 250,000 jobs a month and unemployment drops to 7.6 or so percent.

Obama-405
Romney-133

Romney Best Case
All out economic collapse between now and November. Europe goes into full on depression. We start losing jobs and unemployment edges back up.

Obama-188
Romney-350

As of now, most likely scenario.

Obama- 297
Romney- 241

As you can see, Romney has a lower floor and ceiling than Obama by about 50 electoral votes.
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2012, 10:00:06 pm »
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Based on current and past state polling, it would be hard to argue that these two scenarios aren't the best and worst cases for Romney and Obama.
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2012, 10:24:12 pm »
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Obvious troll/hack is obvious.
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Darius_Addicus_Gaius
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2012, 12:32:20 am »
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Best case is that it comes down to Ohio. He is looking like Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis who also led during their campaigns. If you are in touch with anything to do with politics, you're giving both candidates at least 170 EV but likely at least 200. 8.2% unemployment doesn't get anyone re-elected to the white house. Right now it's a total toss up though due to the fact it's July so I have to say the result will be 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio. In all honesty though, I don't see it getting any better for Obama.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2012, 12:34:01 am »
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Obvious troll/hack is obvious.

In recent days I've noticed a lot of your posts are mostly just dedicated to calling other people trolls. It's a sort of poetic justice. Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2012, 12:39:37 am »
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Best case is that it comes down to Ohio. He is looking like Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis who also led during their campaigns. If you are in touch with anything to do with politics, you're giving both candidates at least 170 EV but likely at least 200. 8.2% unemployment doesn't get anyone re-elected to the white house. Right now it's a total toss up though due to the fact it's July so I have to say the result will be 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio. In all honesty though, I don't see it getting any better for Obama.
Unemployment on election day will probably be either 8 or 7.9 percent. He is nowhere near Carter, Mondale, or Dukakis. Right now I'd say he's between President W. Bush and President Gerald Ford. One of them won narrow re-election, the other lost narrowly.
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Darius_Addicus_Gaius
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2012, 12:42:15 am »
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Best case is that it comes down to Ohio. He is looking like Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis who also led during their campaigns. If you are in touch with anything to do with politics, you're giving both candidates at least 170 EV but likely at least 200. 8.2% unemployment doesn't get anyone re-elected to the white house. Right now it's a total toss up though due to the fact it's July so I have to say the result will be 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio. In all honesty though, I don't see it getting any better for Obama.
Unemployment on election day will probably be either 8 or 7.9 percent. He is nowhere near Carter, Mondale, or Dukakis. Right now I'd say he's between President W. Bush and President Gerald Ford. One of them won narrow re-election, the other lost narrowly.

His poll numbers are near where Dukakis' were. In fact Dukakis led 48-46 in the middle of October. Those are also still very high unemployment numbers. Once Labor Day hits we'll get a better view of what things reallly look like because that's when most Independent voters start paying attention. Actually I'd compare Obama to Kerry or maybe a little better than Kerry was doing at this point. From what I've heard Ford was down by 50 at this time of year.
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Zarn
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2012, 08:26:23 pm »
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I think the OP's map is closer to a worst case scenario, unless the bizarre happens and Romney drops out before the nomination due to the taxes issue or corruption throughout the primary process exposed (a pipe dream... I know... you don't need to tell me).
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milhouse24
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2012, 09:57:04 pm »
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I think the OP chart is the closest to the reality situation.  For Obama, the best case scenario might include winning Ohio and Virginia.  I suppose it depends on whether you think the election is Obama's to lose or Romney's to lose.  I think most people in the media see Obama in a position of strength with incumbency, and could win just by default.  It doesn't yet appear that Obama will lose in a landslide. 

Romney is still trying to prove himself at a national level and in the swing states.  But he does have a slight edge in that people are generally disatisfied with Obama's job performance, especially on the economy.  Romney could in fact have a lot of "silent majority" voters in Ohio and Virginia that are still waiting until election day to vote for him, since these "silent voters" have lost faith in Obama but haven't yet embraced Romney. 

Obama is also very weak from a "Democrat voter enthusiasm poll."  This weak enthusiasm for Obama will hurt him a lot.  There is far more enthusiasm from Repbulicans and they will GOTV for Romney, even if they don't personally like Romney. 

In the end, I still think Obama has strong regional ties to Iowa and Ohio that will help him at the polls.  In that sense, he is better situated to those swing states because of regional affection over the Massachusetts Romney. 
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