My best-case scenario for Obama

[milhouse24]

I think the OP chart is the closest to the reality situation.  For Obama, the best case scenario might include winning Ohio and Virginia.  I suppose it depends on whether you think the election is Obama's to lose or Romney's to lose.  I think most people in the media see Obama in a position of strength with incumbency, and could win just by default.  It doesn't yet appear that Obama will lose in a landslide. 

Romney is still trying to prove himself at a national level and in the swing states.  But he does have a slight edge in that people are generally disatisfied with Obama's job performance, especially on the economy.  Romney could in fact have a lot of "silent majority" voters in Ohio and Virginia that are still waiting until election day to vote for him, since these "silent voters" have lost faith in Obama but haven't yet embraced Romney. 

Obama is also very weak from a "Democrat voter enthusiasm poll."  This weak enthusiasm for Obama will hurt him a lot.  There is far more enthusiasm from Repbulicans and they will GOTV for Romney, even if they don't personally like Romney. 

In the end, I still think Obama has strong regional ties to Iowa and Ohio that will help him at the polls.  In that sense, he is better situated to those swing states because of regional affection over the Massachusetts Romney.