My best-case scenario for Obama (user search)
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  My best-case scenario for Obama (search mode)
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Author Topic: My best-case scenario for Obama  (Read 1783 times)
WhyteRain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

« on: July 25, 2012, 07:49:54 PM »



Obama -  266
Romney - 266

Romney recaptures just four Bush states that McCain lost in 2008:  Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

I originally gave Iowa to Obama, but then I realized (1) if this map is correct, then Iowa will be the closest state and (2) then Iowa would decide the election.  So I thought it would be fun to show Iowa as "undecided".
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WhyteRain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2012, 08:11:35 PM »

I don't feel that this is Obama's best case, although I think that this will end up being the map in November, of course barring exceptional circumstances i.e. economic collapse, big Romney tax scandal.

I understand.  That's why I called it "my" best case scenario for Obama.  If you look at my real prediction map (or have seen some of my comments on the subject), you'll see I'm predicting -- and have predicted since last year -- an easy GOP win.
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WhyteRain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2012, 08:48:10 PM »

On one hand, I still have a hunch that we're taking New Hampshire for granted. It has all the makings of a state that could easily swing--wealthy, fiscally conservative, and a large number of independents. I'd say that, barring a complete collapse on either side, the realistic best-case scenarios are:



Swap Minnesota for Michigan and I think you have my prediction map.  :-)
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WhyteRain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2012, 08:51:17 PM »

I thought realistic best case.

This is my projection I made in February this year and I stick to it.



According to my opinion, Obama's best case is for him to win all tossup states in my projection and that would be 303.


Well, it's a good map, but why all the "toss-ups"?  Heck, if Romney wins all the toss-ups on your map, then it's practically my prediction map which was set up in Nov 2011.
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