My best-case scenario for Obama

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama Best Case
Pretty much, I gave Obama every swing state, plus all the states he came within 5 points of winning in 2008. We end up creating 250,000 jobs a month and unemployment drops to 7.6 or so percent.

Obama-405
Romney-133

Romney Best Case
All out economic collapse between now and November. Europe goes into full on depression. We start losing jobs and unemployment edges back up.

Obama-188
Romney-350

As of now, most likely scenario.

Obama- 297
Romney- 241

As you can see, Romney has a lower floor and ceiling than Obama by about 50 electoral votes.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Best case is that it comes down to Ohio. He is looking like Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis who also led during their campaigns. If you are in touch with anything to do with politics, you're giving both candidates at least 170 EV but likely at least 200. 8.2% unemployment doesn't get anyone re-elected to the white house. Right now it's a total toss up though due to the fact it's July so I have to say the result will be 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio. In all honesty though, I don't see it getting any better for Obama.

Unemployment on election day will probably be either 8 or 7.9 percent. He is nowhere near Carter, Mondale, or Dukakis. Right now I'd say he's between President W. Bush and President Gerald Ford. One of them won narrow re-election, the other lost narrowly.