Best case is that it comes down to Ohio. He is looking like Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis who also led during their campaigns. If you are in touch with anything to do with politics, you're giving both candidates at least 170 EV but likely at least 200. 8.2% unemployment doesn't get anyone re-elected to the white house. Right now it's a total toss up though due to the fact it's July so I have to say the result will be 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio. In all honesty though, I don't see it getting any better for Obama.
His poll numbers are near where Dukakis' were. In fact Dukakis led 48-46 in the middle of October. Those are also still very high unemployment numbers. Once Labor Day hits we'll get a better view of what things reallly look like because that's when most Independent voters start paying attention. Actually I'd compare Obama to Kerry or maybe a little better than Kerry was doing at this point. From what I've heard Ford was down by 50 at this time of year.
