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Author Topic: Predict the Nov result and explain why  (Read 691 times)
zorkpolitics
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« on: July 25, 2012, 10:10:13 pm »
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I predict a Romney win over Obama by 4%.

The RealClear average of polls has Obama leading by 1.3%, but I think the current polls are vastly oversampling Democrats because:
1) Gallop finds Democratic enthusiasm down from 2008 by 22% points while Republican enthusiasm is up 16% points: A larger Republican advantage than in 2004
http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/Democratic-Voting-Enthusiasm-Down-Sharply-2004-2008.aspx?utm_source=add%2Bthis&utm_medium=addthis.com&utm_campaign=sharing#.UBAzQkU7QFU.twitter
2) Rasmussen finds Democratic party self identification down 11% points from 2008:  a 3.4% advantage for Republicans over 2004
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Combining the two trends I predict a substantial Romney win by 4% = to the Bush 2004 win of 2.5% plus another 1.5% for increased Republican self ID and enthusiasm.

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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2012, 10:23:59 pm »
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Obama in a 2004-style victory. Economic numbers remain relatively stable, with a slight uptick later on that helps Obama after September/early October somewhat favors Romney. A good performance in the last two debates gives Obama a narrow victory, with Romney picking up Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire.
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2012, 10:25:30 pm »
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I predict an Obama win with 51.7 percent of the vote to Romney's 48.3. And an electoral vote margin of 297 for Obama and 241 for Romney. Democratic voter identification is down because 2008 was a very Democartic year. They still have a larger identification than Republicans, but pretty soon Independents will outnumber both parties. If Romney hasn't capitalized on this weak of an incumbent, it'll take a major downturn for him to win. He has only lead in 2 recent polls, and one of them was from Rasmussen.
He hasn't lead in an Ohio poll yet, which is pretty sad. But it's still tight, and he might be able to take a win with 276 votes.

But if Romney does take it, this is the most likely map.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2012, 10:41:35 pm »
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Let's face it. Obama is probably gonna win, and the Republicans are actually pretty lucky because of it. If Romney won, we'd see the type of backlash Iceland saw a few years back.

Americans don't have the tolerance for B.S. that they had 10 or 15 years ago.
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2012, 10:47:38 pm »
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Let's face it. Obama is probably gonna win, and the Republicans are actually pretty lucky because of it. If Romney won, we'd see the type of backlash Iceland saw a few years back.

Americans don't have the tolerance for B.S. that they had 10 or 15 years ago.

Both the Obama campaign and the Romney campaign are proof positive that if anything, the American public's level of B.S. tolerance has increased over the past 10-15 years. Dramatically. (In fact, that's the only thing dramatic about this election).
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2012, 08:34:16 am »
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Prediction:  Obama loses.

Reason:  The 2010 election; what's changed markedly for the better for Obama since then?

Mitigating Factor:  The GOP is about to nominate the weakest possible opponent for Obama.
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ōcēlōxōchitl
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2012, 08:39:14 am »
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Prediction:  Obama loses.

Reason:  The 2010 election; what's changed markedly for the better for Obama since then?
Osama is dead, Libya was successful, SCotUS upheld Obamacare, etc., etc.

Your move.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2012, 08:49:04 am »
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Prediction:  Obama wins (although I'm not confident on the margins yet)

The GOP have made a really big mistake nominating Romney, not because he can't win, because he can, but because the Mitt Romney that COULD have beaten Obama disappeared when he had to race so far to the right that he had no choice to return to the middle. However, Romney's other weakness is his campaign's blatant incompetence. Say whatever you want about Obama, but he's got the best campaign team in a generation behind him.

Running against an incumbent, the challenger needs to make two arguments

1. The incumbent is no good (and that's how you get your base) AND
2. they will be better... (how you get the independents and softs)

The challengers who have made this case well include Reagan and Clinton, those who didn't include Mondale and Kerry... and Romney's issues are even undermining his previously strong ability to articulate the first step.

I understand the desire to point to 2010... but the demographic make up of the 2012 electorate will look a lot more like 2008 and despite what some of the right feel, a good whack of the fire has been taken out of the opposition... if the country was completely in the crapper and people were still 2010-angry... Obama's ratings would be in the toilet and Romney should be romping... and he's not.
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2012, 09:07:28 am »
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Prediction:  Obama loses.

Reason:  The 2010 election; what's changed markedly for the better for Obama since then?
Osama is dead -- That football's been spiked to death and most Americans are offended by the endzone dance.

Libya was successful -- Was it?  And were we even involved?  Or "following from the front" or whatever it was?  As in Egypt, it's sure not evident that "the good guys won".

SCotUS upheld Obamacare -- I call it "Roberts' Revenge".  Just when Obama thought he would get his base motivated by "the partisan GOP Supreme Court took away your healthcare!", instead the SCotUS decision motivates his opponents by saying "only your vote can end ObamaCare".

Meanwhile, though a few weeks ago I said in another comment thread "it's hard to see how the economic news can get worse for Obama", it has.

Your move.
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ōcēlōxōchitl
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2012, 09:27:47 am »
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Prediction:  Obama loses.

Reason:  The 2010 election; what's changed markedly for the better for Obama since then?
Osama is dead -- That football's been spiked to death and most Americans are offended by the endzone dance.
Dubious estimations of public opinion notwithstanding, this is one thing that has "changed markedly for the better for Obama since 2010".

Quote
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Libya was successful -- Was it?  And were we even involved?  Or "following from the front" or whatever it was?  As in Egypt, it's sure not evident that "the good guys won".
Considering the outcome of the recent elections, ...
And claiming the US was uninvolved after the outcry over Libya being an unconstitutional overreach and so on is an astounding feat of contortionism that I would not have expected even Republicans to manage.

Quote
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SCotUS upheld Obamacare -- I call it "Roberts' Revenge".  Just when Obama thought he would get his base motivated by "the partisan GOP Supreme Court took away your healthcare!", instead the SCotUS decision motivates his opponents by saying "only your vote can end ObamaCare".
All Obama needs to do now is run ads about the Republicans voting over and over again to repeal Obamacare after it has been validated by the SC.
Maybe juxtapose this with Republicans saying "jobs are the top priority" or similar statements.

Quote
Meanwhile, though a few weeks ago I said in another comment thread "it's hard to see how the economic news can get worse for Obama", it has.

Your move.

No, it hasn't, really.
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ōcēlōxōchitl
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2012, 09:38:25 am »
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Anyway, something like this:

303-235.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2012, 11:14:33 am »
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Meanwhile, though a few weeks ago I said in another comment thread "it's hard to see how the economic news can get worse for Obama", it has.

Your move.

No, it hasn't, really.

Quote
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AP Economics Writer  / July 25, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) ó Americans bought fewer new homes in June after sales jumped to a two-year high in May. The steep decline suggests a weaker job market and slower growth could make the housing recovery uneven.
 

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes fell 8.4 percent last month from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000. Thatís the biggest drop since February 2011.


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July 25, 2012

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The recovery is slow because you're not spending enough money.

At least, that's what economists say.
 
When the president entered office on Jan. 20, 2009, the economy was issue No. 1. It still is today. Here's a look at where the economy stood then and what's changed since.
View photos
 
On Friday, the government will release its second-quarter report on gross domestic product and economists surveyed by CNNMoney are predicting a 1.4% annual rate of growth. That would be down significantly from 1.9% growth in the first three months of the year.


1.4% growth?  Even the harshest critics of Obamanomics wouldn't've predicted that!

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NEW YORK/LONDON | Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:37pm IST

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - The struggles of the U.S. and euro zone economies continued in July, business surveys showed on Tuesday....

Financial information firm Markit said its U.S. "flash" manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.8 from 52.5 in June, the fourth straight month of slower growth.


Quote
By Shobhana Chandra - Jul 2, 2012 4:21 PM ET
Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in June for the first time since the economy emerged from the recession three years ago, indicating a mainstay of the expansion may be faltering.

The Institute for Supply Managementís index fell to 49.7, worse than the most-pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, from 53.5 in May, the Tempe, Arizona-based groupís report showed today. Figures less than 50 signal contraction. Measures of orders, production and export demand dropped to three-year lows.

It's hilarious how every single piece of bad economic news is reported by Bloomberg (and the rest of the MSM that can't suppress the info) as "unexpected" -- as though Obamanomics is great and we just can't understand why it's not working!)

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July 12, 2012
U.S. government records $904.2B deficit through June
By The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Advertiser
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. budget deficit grew by nearly $60 billion in June, remaining on track to exceed $1 trillion for the fourth straight year.

Through the first nine months of the budget year, the federal deficit totaled $904.2 billion, the Treasury Department reported Thursday.

President Obama is almost certain to face re-election having run trillion-dollar-plus deficits in each of his first four years in office. That would likely benefit his opponent, GOP presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.

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July 20, 2012


Jobless rate up in 27 states, down in 11 in June
In June, 27 states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 11 states and the District of Columbia had decreases, and 12 states had no change.
[/quote]

I could go on, but I think maybe you're starting to get the picture:  I was wrong when I said last month that "things can't get any worse".
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2012, 11:17:47 am »
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Prediction:  Obama loses.

Reason:  The 2010 election; what's changed markedly for the better for Obama since then?
Osama is dead -- That football's been spiked to death and most Americans are offended by the endzone dance.

The Obama administration has been quiet about that. Watch for more end-zone spiking during the football season... especially if and when Ayman al-Zawahiri finds himself introduced to the Great Satan with the aid of American special forces.  

Quote
Libya was successful -- Was it?  And were we even involved?  Or "following from the front" or whatever it was?  As in Egypt, it's sure not evident that "the good guys won".

You don't miss Moammar Qaddafi, do you? Besides, how long did you think that octogenarian dictator Hosni Mubarak could hold out? The new Islamic government in Egypt has stated that it will maintain its treaties and diplomatic relations with Israel.

Quote
SCotUS upheld Obamacare -- I call it "Roberts' Revenge".  Just when Obama thought he would get his base motivated by "the partisan GOP Supreme Court took away your healthcare!", instead the SCotUS decision motivates his opponents by saying "only your vote can end ObamaCare".

Justice Roberts ruled not so much the merits of the Affordable Care Act as on its Constitutionality. Such is the role of the US Supreme Court.

Quote
Meanwhile, though a few weeks ago I said in another comment thread "it's hard to see how the economic news can get worse for Obama", it has.

The European financial mess isn't going to hit America until after the election.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2012, 11:30:32 am »
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Romney 51.1
Obama 47.7
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2012, 11:42:59 am »
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I'll predict a tight race with an Obama win by about 1% in the popular vote and under 300 EVs. The economy will slowly get worse. Europe will continue to stumble along. The Mideast will continue to smoulder. And Romney's inability to address his own weaknesses will continue to be a drag on his candidacy.

Looking farther out, I think a Romney loss has a good chance at giving the Democrats another win in 2016. The Tea Party will spend Obama's second term screaming that Romney lost because "he wasn't conservative enough!" leading to either a Tea Party nominee in 2016 or a devastating Republican primary fight.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2012, 11:51:55 am »
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272-266.

Colorado and New Hampshire are very narrowly held by the President.

Romney pulls Virginia and Iowa by the skin of his teeth.
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2012, 04:16:04 pm »
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332-206

Florida and Iowa could switch, but I'm thinking Obama manages to squeak by in both.
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2012, 04:50:29 pm »
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281-257


Not sure how Romney would win without CO, IA, and VA.
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2012, 06:21:29 pm »
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2008 minus Indiana for Obama.

Nobody likes Mitt Romney. He's charmless, insipid, uninspiring and running a campaign completely devoid of imagination.
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2012, 09:42:10 am »
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Similar outcome to 2008 except Obama will lose Indiana and North Carolina. Can Obama hold Florida? Obama wins re-election with either 303 or 332 electoral votes, depending on FL result.
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Every four years, the white vote drops 2% Ė and it's picking up steam. From 1948 to 1992, it went from 91 to 87%. From '92 to 2016, it's going to go from 87 to 70%. Combine that with young voters who were 60% Democratic in 2012.

Hillary 2016!
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2012, 11:55:52 am »
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Obama 332
Romney 206

52-47 Obama in the PV.  Obama barely hangs onto Florida.  Romney squeaks by in North Carolina.  Obama loses some of his really big MOV in the Upper Midwest, and he's not hitting 60% in states like Delaware and Connecticut anymore, but it's still a fairly solid victory for the President.  

Basically the economy sees a little bit of improvement, the Obama ground game gets the vote out, and Mitt Romney is generally just not a likable candidate.  A lot of independents decide that things aren't really that bad and they are content with the current administration.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 11:57:56 am by AWallTEP81 »Logged



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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2012, 04:40:53 pm »
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14%+ unemployment amongst blacks.

How do ya like Obama so far?

Lower turnout amongst blacks this election, Romney wins.
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2012, 04:54:32 pm »
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Obama - 51.5, 290 EVs
Romney - 47.0, 248 EVs
Other - 1.5

Barring economic catastrophe, Obama wins. In a relatively close election, it comes down to the best GOTV operation and Romney, cash advantage aside, will not best Team Obama in GOTV efforts. Not happening. I also don't buy into this narrative that Romney could win the PV and lose the EC. Obama will be running up the score on the east and west coasts, Romney will not be doing the same in the southern and plain states.
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