Predict the Nov result and explain why

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Prediction:  Obama wins (although I'm not confident on the margins yet)

The GOP have made a really big mistake nominating Romney, not because he can't win, because he can, but because the Mitt Romney that COULD have beaten Obama disappeared when he had to race so far to the right that he had no choice to return to the middle. However, Romney's other weakness is his campaign's blatant incompetence. Say whatever you want about Obama, but he's got the best campaign team in a generation behind him.

Running against an incumbent, the challenger needs to make two arguments

1. The incumbent is no good (and that's how you get your base) AND
2. they will be better... (how you get the independents and softs)

The challengers who have made this case well include Reagan and Clinton, those who didn't include Mondale and Kerry... and Romney's issues are even undermining his previously strong ability to articulate the first step.

I understand the desire to point to 2010... but the demographic make up of the 2012 electorate will look a lot more like 2008 and despite what some of the right feel, a good whack of the fire has been taken out of the opposition... if the country was completely in the crapper and people were still 2010-angry... Obama's ratings would be in the toilet and Romney should be romping... and he's not.