I predict an Obama win with 51.7 percent of the vote to Romney's 48.3. And an electoral vote margin of 297 for Obama and 241 for Romney. Democratic voter identification is down because 2008 was a very Democartic year. They still have a larger identification than Republicans, but pretty soon Independents will outnumber both parties. If Romney hasn't capitalized on this weak of an incumbent, it'll take a major downturn for him to win. He has only lead in 2 recent polls, and one of them was from Rasmussen.
He hasn't lead in an Ohio poll yet, which is pretty sad. But it's still tight, and he might be able to take a win with 276 votes.
But if Romney does take it, this is the most likely map.
