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| | |-+  why is Illinois such a heavily blue state
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Author Topic: why is Illinois such a heavily blue state  (Read 4267 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: July 27, 2012, 12:01:54 am »
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I realize that Obama's presence on the ticket made it more dem but even in 2004 it had a PVI of D+6.4.

The reason I'm asking this is because when it comes to race, the state is almost a perfect microcosm of the country, so why isn't it a microcosm politically? It was, for the most part, a swing state for most of the 20th century. It is around 63-64 percent white with the rest being mostly black or hispanic with some asians here and there.

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DrScholl
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2012, 12:22:45 am »
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Cook County is a large percentage of the overall vote and it has a lot of white liberals that vote very Democratic in most years. The rest of the state mirrors the country a little bit better in terms of how polarization and voting patterns are.
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2012, 01:09:23 am »
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Added to that, the suburbs of Chicago are increasingly urban and no longer uniformly white.
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2012, 02:21:56 am »
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Chicago.

Plus the GOP doesn't have the suburban appeal as of 1988.
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2012, 02:32:43 am »
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It doesn't have any Republican vote bastion that can be used to cancel out Chicago. Even in 2004 the DuPage-esque suburbs were only in the mid-50s for Bush.
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2012, 02:44:41 am »
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It doesn't have any Republican vote bastion that can be used to cancel out Chicago.

Seriously. The 2010 gubernatorial map was insane: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=17&f=0&off=5&elect=0

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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2012, 07:04:20 am »
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It doesn't have any Republican vote bastion that can be used to cancel out Chicago.

Seriously. The 2010 gubernatorial map was insane: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=17&f=0&off=5&elect=0



The Senate map was better in 2010.
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2012, 07:25:22 am »
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The Senate map was better in 2010.

It's the same as the gubernatorial map.
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2012, 07:33:47 am »
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The Senate map was better in 2010.

It's the same as the gubernatorial map.

Well, a few shades were different. Those shades, I'm sure you agree, were rather important.
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2012, 11:59:11 am »
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It doesn't have any Republican vote bastion that can be used to cancel out Chicago.

Seriously. The 2010 gubernatorial map was insane: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=17&f=0&off=5&elect=0



LOL, half of Quinn's votes came from Cook County.
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2012, 01:34:49 pm »
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There's been a lot of strange "Why is (insert state/city/town/county here) so Democratic/Republican?" threads recently, hasn't there?
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2012, 01:39:34 pm »
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It doesn't have any Republican vote bastion that can be used to cancel out Chicago.

Seriously. The 2010 gubernatorial map was insane: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=17&f=0&off=5&elect=0



That's what I love about Illinois. Those types of maps show the sheer power of Cook County. Democrats don't have to win any other county in the state, but if they run up their margins in Cook, it'll be a close race, and they can win. It's fascinating to look at.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2012, 05:30:46 pm »
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This was a pretty dumb question...

Mid/South Illinois should be detached and attached to Indiana.  It's a shame for the rural people of Illinois to be drown out by Cook County
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2012, 05:39:41 pm »
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This was a pretty dumb question...

Mid/South Illinois should be detached and attached to Indiana.  It's a shame for the rural people of Illinois to be drown out by Cook County

You mean just like people in Atlanta are drowned out by the good ol folks in the rest of the state?
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 06:09:30 pm »
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This was a pretty dumb question...

Mid/South Illinois should be detached and attached to Indiana.  It's a shame for the rural people of Illinois to be drown out by Cook County

You mean just like people in Atlanta are drowned out by the good ol folks in the rest of the state?

Cook cast 39% of Illinois' ballots, Fulton 10% of Georgia's.  Big difference
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2012, 06:26:33 pm »
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There are places everywhere that get their votes drowned out by other areas, it's just how it is. No use complaining about it really.
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2012, 09:16:24 pm »
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5
This was a pretty dumb question...

Mid/South Illinois should be detached and attached to Indiana.  It's a shame for the rural people of Illinois to be drown out by Cook County

You mean just like people in Atlanta are drowned out by the good ol folks in the rest of the state?

Cook cast 39% of Illinois' ballots, Fulton 10% of Georgia's.  Big difference

Well, it's not a fair comparison when you consider that the main conglomeration of "Atlanta" extends throughout Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton counties (which combined is roughly the same geographic size as Cook County), even though Atlanta's city limits fall in Fulton (and a sliver) of Dekalb. In 2010 in those 3 counties, the vote amounted to roughly 20% of all ballots cast. You come close to 35% if you liberally add in the sprawling areas of Cobb and Gwinnett.
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2012, 09:26:30 pm »
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This was a pretty dumb question...

Mid/South Illinois should be detached and attached to Indiana.  It's a shame for the rural people of Illinois to be drown out by Cook County

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAlTOfl9F2w
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2012, 09:59:44 pm »
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The last GOP presidential win in IL was Bush in 1988. Dukakis only had a margin of 250 K in Cook and that was not enough to carry him statewide as he lost by 100 K, even though there were still a lot of southern IL counties voting D.

Clinton had a 640 K margin in Cook in 1992 and that was most of his margin on 720 K that year. 1996 was similar with a 690 K margin in Cook and 750 K statewide. During this decade the inner townships of Cook really started to tilt D creating margins that were previously associated with statewide landslides.

In the 2000 election the tilt of downstate to R began to show. Gore carried Cook by 750 K but only won the state by 570 K. The difference downstate grows in 2004 as Kerry takes Cook by 840 K but only has a 550 K win statewide.

Obama clearly gets a favorite son effect, but it's instructive to compare 1992 to 2008. The shift of southern IL vs suburban Chicago is quite marked. Since Chicago and suburbs controls an ever larger fraction of the state's vote, the Cook county margins will continue to dominate the state.



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freepcrusher
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2012, 11:09:45 pm »
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The last GOP presidential win in IL was Bush in 1988. Dukakis only had a margin of 250 K in Cook and that was not enough to carry him statewide as he lost by 100 K, even though there were still a lot of southern IL counties voting D.

Clinton had a 640 K margin in Cook in 1992 and that was most of his margin on 720 K that year. 1996 was similar with a 690 K margin in Cook and 750 K statewide. During this decade the inner townships of Cook really started to tilt D creating margins that were previously associated with statewide landslides.

In the 2000 election the tilt of downstate to R began to show. Gore carried Cook by 750 K but only won the state by 570 K. The difference downstate grows in 2004 as Kerry takes Cook by 840 K but only has a 550 K win statewide.

Obama clearly gets a favorite son effect, but it's instructive to compare 1992 to 2008. The shift of southern IL vs suburban Chicago is quite marked. Since Chicago and suburbs controls an ever larger fraction of the state's vote, the Cook county margins will continue to dominate the state.





what is downstate IL like? I'm guessing its kind of like rural Missouri?
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« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2012, 11:22:23 pm »
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The last GOP presidential win in IL was Bush in 1988. Dukakis only had a margin of 250 K in Cook and that was not enough to carry him statewide as he lost by 100 K, even though there were still a lot of southern IL counties voting D.

Clinton had a 640 K margin in Cook in 1992 and that was most of his margin on 720 K that year. 1996 was similar with a 690 K margin in Cook and 750 K statewide. During this decade the inner townships of Cook really started to tilt D creating margins that were previously associated with statewide landslides.

In the 2000 election the tilt of downstate to R began to show. Gore carried Cook by 750 K but only won the state by 570 K. The difference downstate grows in 2004 as Kerry takes Cook by 840 K but only has a 550 K win statewide.

Obama clearly gets a favorite son effect, but it's instructive to compare 1992 to 2008. The shift of southern IL vs suburban Chicago is quite marked. Since Chicago and suburbs controls an ever larger fraction of the state's vote, the Cook county margins will continue to dominate the state.





what is downstate IL like? I'm guessing its kind of like rural Missouri?

Northern Illinois is more like Minnesota/Wisconsin/eastern Iowa, Southern Illinois is more like rural Missouri or Western Kentucky.
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2012, 08:57:12 pm »
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The last GOP presidential win in IL was Bush in 1988. Dukakis only had a margin of 250 K in Cook and that was not enough to carry him statewide as he lost by 100 K, even though there were still a lot of southern IL counties voting D.

Clinton had a 640 K margin in Cook in 1992 and that was most of his margin on 720 K that year. 1996 was similar with a 690 K margin in Cook and 750 K statewide. During this decade the inner townships of Cook really started to tilt D creating margins that were previously associated with statewide landslides.

In the 2000 election the tilt of downstate to R began to show. Gore carried Cook by 750 K but only won the state by 570 K. The difference downstate grows in 2004 as Kerry takes Cook by 840 K but only has a 550 K win statewide.

Obama clearly gets a favorite son effect, but it's instructive to compare 1992 to 2008. The shift of southern IL vs suburban Chicago is quite marked. Since Chicago and suburbs controls an ever larger fraction of the state's vote, the Cook county margins will continue to dominate the state.





what is downstate IL like? I'm guessing its kind of like rural Missouri?

Northern Illinois is more like Minnesota/Wisconsin/eastern Iowa, Southern Illinois is more like rural Missouri or Western Kentucky.

Western KY is a pretty good match to southern IL. The land and speech is similar. A lot of the area is old coal country. From the US Energy Information Agency: In 2010, Illinois ranked third in recoverable coal reserves at producing mines in the Nation; the state ranked eighth in production.
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« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2012, 09:42:33 am »
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The last GOP presidential win in IL was Bush in 1988. Dukakis only had a margin of 250 K in Cook and that was not enough to carry him statewide as he lost by 100 K, even though there were still a lot of southern IL counties voting D.

Clinton had a 640 K margin in Cook in 1992 and that was most of his margin on 720 K that year. 1996 was similar with a 690 K margin in Cook and 750 K statewide. During this decade the inner townships of Cook really started to tilt D creating margins that were previously associated with statewide landslides.

In the 2000 election the tilt of downstate to R began to show. Gore carried Cook by 750 K but only won the state by 570 K. The difference downstate grows in 2004 as Kerry takes Cook by 840 K but only has a 550 K win statewide.

Obama clearly gets a favorite son effect, but it's instructive to compare 1992 to 2008. The shift of southern IL vs suburban Chicago is quite marked. Since Chicago and suburbs controls an ever larger fraction of the state's vote, the Cook county margins will continue to dominate the state.





The GOP has had a severe erosion in the collar counties as well. The collar counties and Orange County, CA have had kind of the same trajectory, from massively Pub (probably generating along with OC the largest margins in raw votes for the Pubs of any area in the United States), to modestly Pub. The collar counties are what used to float the GOP's boat in Illinois.
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« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2012, 08:42:19 pm »
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Illinois is not a solidly blue state.  They have elected quite a few Republicans to statewide offices (e.g. Mark Kirk) in recent years.  But it still leans Democrat for the most part because Bill Clinton got all the suburban moderates to vote Democrat in the realignment of 1992 and they never came back (out of fear for the "right-wing Nazi extremist" Republicans).  Wisconsin is a swing state, too.
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2012, 06:18:18 pm »
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Clinton got the moderate suburbanites in the Chicago area to vote Democrat and they've been doing it ever since.
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