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| | | |-+  DFM Research: Heitkamp up 6 in North Dakota
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Author Topic: DFM Research: Heitkamp up 6 in North Dakota  (Read 533 times)
morgieb
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« on: July 27, 2012, 07:36:11 pm »
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Yes it's an internal, but their Presidential numbers make sense.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/dem-poll-heitkamp-up-in-north-dakota-130341.html

Heitkamp: 50%
Berg: 44%
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mondale84
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2012, 08:04:35 pm »
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Seems about right, though I think it's a tossup at the moment.
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Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2012, 08:49:42 pm »
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Entered

Database link: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2012/polls.php?fips=38&class=1

Poll link: http://images.politico.com/global/2012/07/survey_july_2012_dem-npl.html
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2012, 09:01:32 pm »
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So it should still be about tied if this is an internal.
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2012, 02:18:13 am »
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Since when do we enter internals?

I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people thought at the beginning of the cycle. Heitkamp has a very good shot at winning this, as polling over the past few months has made clear.
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2012, 08:24:00 am »
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Looks about 50/50 to me; the polling average on RCP says Berg has a narrow lead, which feels right. I honestly wouldn't mind if Heitkamp defeated Berg in a regular year, because she sounds like a better candidate, but 2012 where every Senate seat is decisive is forcing me to root for Berg.
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2012, 09:25:20 am »
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This was suppose to be a lean pickup by the GOP this year. This spells good news for 2014 if Johnson steps down and Heaseth Sandler decides to run.
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MD
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2012, 04:16:56 pm »
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Be careful what you wish for.  The R's have a superstar waiting in the wings. 
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mondale84
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2012, 09:02:22 pm »
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Be careful what you wish for.  The R's have a superstar waiting in the wings. 

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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2012, 10:13:48 pm »
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Ask Inks.  He entered a poll by them in this same race back in April.  They polled the Presidential race in the same poll, and those numbers are about what one would expect.  My major concern with it is that they polled only landlines, which typically skews the results to be older and Republicaner.  That might not be the case in North Dakota, as I'd expect those who come to the state for the fracking jobs to skew Republican and lack landlines, so if they have been registering...

Does seem to be an outlier, but with enough there to cause me to shift my prediction from Lean R to Tossup R.  I'll need far more than this poll to convince me to put the state in the D column.
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