MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9

[krazen1211]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-trails-all-three-gop-candidates-in-senate-race/article_7dc3f2e4-d84e-11e1-a6e2-001a4bcf6878.html#.UBNcXylr14M.twitter

http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html

Romney 51
Obama 42

[timothyinMD]

Oh boy, a second Missouri poll in three days.  Rasmussen will prob poll here in the next two weeks also. 

[True Federalist]

Entered:

Database link: http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html

[NVGonzalez]

Not saying it is junk (though I think Obama is down by 5 at the most) but both polls came out of firms that have a record of favoring Republicans and/or have worked with Republicans. I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing.

[MorningInAmerica]

Not saying it is junk (though I think Obama is down by 5 at the most) but both polls came out of firms that have a record of favoring Republicans and/or have worked with Republicans. I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing.

Both times Nate Silver released his pollster rankngs Mason-Dixon was ranked quite high (higher than PPP and Rasmussen).

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Given that Rasmussen is finding the same thing, I'd feel comfortable saying Romney's probably leading in Missouri by...oh...I'll say 9 points.

I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing.

Polling from multiple pollsters suggest McCaskill really is losing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mo/missouri_senate_steelman_vs_mccaskill-1789.html#polls

[Umengus]

if it's tied at national level, Romney + 9 in MO is quite possible.

[MorningInAmerica]

Party ID of this poll is R+4. 2004 was only R+1, and 2008 was D+6. So yeah, Mason Dixon has a fine track record, but that party ID is a bit hard for this Republican to believe.

Plus, that would help explain Obama's miserable favorability rating in Missouri.

Obama - 34/51%
Romney 39/27%

I would've been more interested in seeing his job rating though.

[Jayhawker]

Only 66% of folks have an opinion of Romney? That seems awfully low.

I bet Romney wins Missouri around 53-45. Obama will probably completely pull out of the state by Missouri sometime in the early fall. Both Obama and McCaskill are likely done here.

[True Federalist]

Only 66% of folks have an opinion of Romney? That seems awfully low.

Not really.  They explicitly included a neutral option and for those who haven't formed an opinion on him beyond "generic Republican"  neutral sounds about right.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Well, that explains it. R+4 vs D+6.

D+6 would have MO as tossup, which sounds about right.