Why Obama will likely lose

[zorkpolitics]

It is really amazing how closely Obama's support this summer is tracking his support in the summer of 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

In 2008 Obama was mostly an unknown quantity people could paint their hopes upon and he led McCain all summer in the polls.  Now after 4 years America knows who Obama is and he is polling at almost exactly the same level as he did in 2008.  Thus Obama's current 46% may be close to his ceiling of support this year.

Romney who is mostly an unknown, is polling much better this summer than McCain did on 2008, although trailing Obama by about 1%, his 45% maybe his floor of support.

Romney has a excellent chance to convince voters he can handle the job at the GOP Convention, so it is likely that after the conventions Romney will move ahead in the polls just as McCain did in 2008.  However, this time Romney will stay in the lead since Obama can't benefit from an economic meltdown and would need a near impossible robust economic recovery by Nov. to overcome a post-convention Romney lead.
Prediction
Romney 52%
Obama  47%
Other 1

A 5% win for Romney when applied to the current state level polling would yield:
Romney  337 EV
Obama    201 EV

[Lief 🗽]

Good thing the election doesn't take place right after the RNC then! In fact there will be a Democratic convention and three debates before people actually start voting.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Romney has a excellent chance to convince voters he can handle the job at the GOP Convention, so it is likely that after the conventions Romney will move ahead in the polls just as McCain did in 2008.  However, this time Romney will stay in the lead since Obama can't benefit from an economic meltdown and would need a near impossible robust economic recovery by Nov. to overcome a post-convention Romney lead.
Prediction
Romney 52%
Obama  47%
Other 1

A 5% win for Romney when applied to the current state level polling would yield:
Romney  337 EV
Obama    201 EV

Romney right now is the one with a ceiling of 46 percent. Even when Obama falls, he stays at 46 percent. Obama just can't crack 50 yet. He has a floor of about 46 a d a ceiling of 49. Your numbers are off.
Do you really think Romney will win an even larger landslide than Obama did in 2008? And there is a good chance Romney doesn't even get a post-convention bump this year because the Democratic Convention is scheduled to begin the next week. So it will be Obama getting the convention bump that lasts. Not Romney.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It is really amazing how closely Obama's support this summer is tracking his support in the summer of 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

In 2008 Obama was mostly an unknown quantity people could paint their hopes upon and he led McCain all summer in the polls.  Now after 4 years America knows who Obama is and he is polling at almost exactly the same level as he did in 2008.  Thus Obama's current 46% may be close to his ceiling of support this year.

Romney who is mostly an unknown, is polling much better this summer than McCain did on 2008, although trailing Obama by about 1%, his 45% maybe his floor of support.

Romney has a excellent chance to convince voters he can handle the job at the GOP Convention, so it is likely that after the conventions Romney will move ahead in the polls just as McCain did in 2008.  However, this time Romney will stay in the lead since Obama can't benefit from an economic meltdown and would need a near impossible robust economic recovery by Nov. to overcome a post-convention Romney lead.
Prediction
Romney 52%
Obama  47%
Other 1

A 5% win for Romney when applied to the current state level polling would yield:
Romney  337 EV
Obama    201 EV

You have to know how pointless it is to make declarations (or close to it) like this based on 2008. An incumbent election is markedly different to a open one. Obama is not a replacement for McCain and Romney is not Obama...

[Maxwell]

I doubt it'll be a blowout either way.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

I agree that the premise is flawed because it's projecting a Romney landslide.  That's definitely not going to happen.  However, Democrats need to be aware that Romney could very easily become the 45th President of the United States in 99 days and Republicans need to be aware that Obama could be re-elected.  My fellow Okie on this thread said it right, there is not going to be a blowout either way.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

I agree that the premise is flawed because it's projecting a Romney landslide.  That's definitely not going to happen.  However, Democrats need to be aware that Romney could very easily become the 45th President of the United States in 99 days and Republicans need to be aware that Obama could be re-elected.  My fellow Okie on this thread said it right, there is not going to be a blowout either way.

No, the premise is flawed because he's basing 2012 on 2008 and tracking McCain and Obama, incumbent elections are very different creatures to open elections.

I believe Romney could win, and Democrats need to make sure they're mobilised to avoid such a calamity occurring. I do think that Obama has an organisational, EV and PV advantage at the moment. But things could change. What's preventing Romney from probably leading Obama (which by all accounts on the economy alone, he should be doing) is a) his campaign is one of the worst and ranks with Kerry and Mondale so far b) Romney only won the primary by clobbering his opponents and pandering to the extreme right wing... not something he can do in the general without extreme consequences.

In summary, I expected Romney to be doing a lot better by this point, but the current position says as much about Romney's weaknesses as a candidate as it does about Obama's strengths on the ground.

[memphis]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

I agree that the premise is flawed because it's projecting a Romney landslide.  That's definitely not going to happen.  However, Democrats need to be aware that Romney could very easily become the 45th President of the United States in 99 days and Republicans need to be aware that Obama could be re-elected.  My fellow Okie on this thread said it right, there is not going to be a blowout either way.

Is he planning on staging a coup? Inauguration isn't until 1-20-13.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

I agree that the premise is flawed because it's projecting a Romney landslide.  That's definitely not going to happen.  However, Democrats need to be aware that Romney could very easily become the 45th President of the United States in 99 days and Republicans need to be aware that Obama could be re-elected.  My fellow Okie on this thread said it right, there is not going to be a blowout either way.

Is he planning on staging a coup? Inauguration isn't until 1-20-13.

Good point... You know what I mean.  How about the President-elect...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Again, I laugh at the Democrats on this thread balking at a thread on a likely Romney victory.  They still think Obama has this one in the bag and is a near shoo-in to be re-elected.  I don't think it will be as big a margin of victory as the OP predicts, but I do believe that Romney has the better chance, though nothing at this point is guaranteed.

No democrat in this thread is saying Obama's a sure thing. What, at least, I'm arguing is that the premise on which the thread is based is very flawed.

I agree that the premise is flawed because it's projecting a Romney landslide.  That's definitely not going to happen.  However, Democrats need to be aware that Romney could very easily become the 45th President of the United States in 99 days and Republicans need to be aware that Obama could be re-elected.  My fellow Okie on this thread said it right, there is not going to be a blowout either way.

No, the premise is flawed because he's basing 2012 on 2008 and tracking McCain and Obama, incumbent elections are very different creatures to open elections.

I believe Romney could win, and Democrats need to make sure they're mobilised to avoid such a calamity occurring. I do think that Obama has an organisational, EV and PV advantage at the moment. But things could change. What's preventing Romney from probably leading Obama (which by all accounts on the economy alone, he should be doing) is a) his campaign is one of the worst and ranks with Kerry and Mondale so far b) Romney only won the primary by clobbering his opponents and pandering to the extreme right wing... not something he can do in the general without extreme consequences.

In summary, I expected Romney to be doing a lot better by this point, but the current position says as much about Romney's weaknesses as a candidate as it does about Obama's strengths on the ground.

That's true, you can't compare the two elections.  No two elections are alike, no matter how much the media or anyone tries to compare.  To be honest, I thought Romney would have at least tied it by now, but again, no one save for political junkies are  paying much attention right now.  All most voters know about Romney is he's rich, he's Mormon, and he's not Obama.  We are coming to the "end of the 3rd quarter" in this race.  The 4th quarter and the homestretch begins right after Obama gives his acceptance speech on 6 September 2012, exactly 2 months before Election Day.

[Eraserhead]

Obama looks very much like Bush did in '04 right now.

[Silent Hunter]

Romney's not even got a national lead at this point.

[opebo]

Romney who is mostly an unknown

Bit of an exaggeration, isn't it?  The guy's been around for more than a decade trying to wriggle his way into the Presidency.  Most people know him a bit.

[Eraserhead]

Romney who is mostly an unknown

Bit of an exaggeration, isn't it?  The guy's been around for more than a decade trying to wriggle his way into the Presidency.  Most people know him a bit.

Yeah, the idea that Romney's mostly unknown is a bit silly.