Electoral vote vs. popular vote

[Stranger in a strange land]

Neither is particularly likely, though looking at national vs. state polling averages, Option 1 is looking far more likely as of today. Which is actually kind of ironic seeing as Republicans are more likely to support retaining the electoral college, I suspect in large part because they think it favors them because of what happened back in 2000. It would be interesting to see if Romney loses the EV despite winning the PV this year if Republicans finally get behind ditching the electoral college, either through a constitutional amendment or through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I still don't see how Obama wins the electoral college and not the popular vote, remember he's going to rack up huge million-vote margins in California, Illinois and New York and Romney really only has Texas to rack up a big margin, and he isn't going to get more than ~1 million vote margin there. And he's already maxed out in the other red states (and they're small).

Romney is likely to improve on McCain's margin across most of the South and in the Mormon Belt.