AR: Gov. Beebe not likely to run for another office after 2014

[MilesC56]

Looks like Beebe has the door pretty closed on seeking office after his current term is up:

Beebe, 65, has said he does not intend to run for any other office. Asked what his role would be in the party’s future after he leaves office, he said, “I don’t know that I’ll have one. I’m going to go enjoy some time with (first lady) Ginger and relax a little bit.”
The governor said he might be willing to campaign for Democrats, depending on who asks and what else he is doing at the time.
“But that’s two and a half years off. We’ve got a lot of work to do,” he said.

[Governor Scott]

R+1 unless Bill Halter runs, probably.

[MilesC56]

R+1 unless Bill Halter runs, probably.

Quite the contrary, I'd say

The super-popular AG, Dustin McDaniel, should be the favorite to hold the Governorship. He's already started prepping for the 2014 campaign.

[Holmes]

People were expecting otherwise?

[MilesC56]

People were expecting otherwise?

Well, there was some chatter about Beebe running against Boozman in 2016.

Though, in 2010, I saw a poll with Beebe trailing Boozman by 1. But still, that was 2010...

[Governor Scott]

Beebe's pretty conservative for a Democrat on every issue, isn't he?  Economic issues as well as social ones?

I can imagine he'd put Boozman's seat in play.

[MilesC56]

Beebe's pretty conservative for a Democrat on every issue, isn't he?  Economic issues as well as social ones?

I can imagine he'd put Boozman's seat in play.

All things considered, I'd say he's more fiscally liberal than Blanche Lincoln but more conservative on social issues.

Beebe would probably have PM score very close to mine.

Well, if he was trailing by 1 in 2010, I'd imagine he'd be more competitive in a less hostile year. Boozman would now have the incumbency advantage though.

[mondale84]

Beebe's pretty conservative for a Democrat on every issue, isn't he?  Economic issues as well as social ones?

I can imagine he'd put Boozman's seat in play.

All things considered, I'd say he's more fiscally liberal than Blanche Lincoln but more conservative on social issues.

Beebe would probably have PM score very close to mine.

Well, if he was trailing by 1 in 2010, I'd imagine he'd be more competitive in a less hostile year. Boozman would now have the incumbency advantage though.

I still think Beebe would have the advantage because he would be a popular former governor with a good record versus a relatively low-profile incumbent without one.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - expected. He has good career, spanning decades, and, on the other hand, Arkansas becomes more and more difficult to win even for relatively conservative Democrat. Except few black majority and some other liberal areas (Little Rock, Fayetvtille) it will soon become an Eastern Texas...

[Senator Snowstalker]

IMHO - expected. He has good career, spanning decades, and, on the other hand, Arkansas becomes more and more difficult to win even for relatively conservative Democrat. Except few black majority and some other liberal areas (Little Rock, Fayetvtille) it will soon become an Eastern Texas...

That was 2010; Beebe won by a bigger margin than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate. In 2008, the GOP didn't even bother putting an opponent against Pryor.

[MilesC56]

IMHO - expected. He has good career, spanning decades, and, on the other hand, Arkansas becomes more and more difficult to win even for relatively conservative Democrat. Except few black majority and some other liberal areas (Little Rock, Fayetvtille) it will soon become an Eastern Texas...

That was 2010; Beebe won by a bigger margin than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate. In 2008, the GOP didn't even bother putting an opponent against Pryor.

I think smoltchanov is talking about the longer-term political trajectories of AR. I think he's right to suggest that in 15-20 years, it will look like eastern TX (with a few residual Democratic strongholds in the Delta and Pulaski counties).

I've heard that the Democrat's gerrymander of the legislative districts was actually pretty aggressive (as opposed to the Congressional plan), so that can help buy them a bit more time. But still, the trend worries me...There's a clear generational gap too; I was looking at pics of a few members of the AR legislature... generally speaking, the Democrats are older than the Republicans.

[freepcrusher]

IMHO - expected. He has good career, spanning decades, and, on the other hand, Arkansas becomes more and more difficult to win even for relatively conservative Democrat. Except few black majority and some other liberal areas (Little Rock, Fayetvtille) it will soon become an Eastern Texas...

that's too generous. Even in Texas, the democrats have a good electoral safety net (central SA, most of Houston, South Dallas, Central Fort Worth, El Paso and all of south Texas). Democrats in Arkansas have a much lower floor.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - expected. He has good career, spanning decades, and, on the other hand, Arkansas becomes more and more difficult to win even for relatively conservative Democrat. Except few black majority and some other liberal areas (Little Rock, Fayetvtille) it will soon become an Eastern Texas...

that's too generous. Even in Texas, the democrats have a good electoral safety net (central SA, most of Houston, South Dallas, Central Fort Worth, El Paso and all of south Texas). Democrats in Arkansas have a much lower floor.

That's exactly the reason that i spoke about (rural) East Texas, not the Texas as whole in my comparison. How many Democratic state legislators are now elected from rural East Texas districts? Zero, as far as i know)))

[MilesC56]

This article from after Tim Griffin's RNC speech suggests that he'll run statewide in 2014, more likely for Governor though.

Either way, McDaniel and Pryor would still be favored in their respective contests. Also, with Griffin taking the plunge, Halter could run for his open seat.

[smoltchanov]

This article from after Tim Griffin's RNC speech suggests that he'll run statewide in 2014, more likely for Governor though.

Either way, McDaniel and Pryor would still be favored in their respective contests. Also, with Griffin taking the plunge, Halter could run for his open seat.

May be i am wrong, but it's my feeling that, aside from liberal "base", Halter is almost universaly hated in Arkansas. He couldn't even win primary over Lincoln. And when i think about chances of such liberal candidate in more and more conservative (as of late) Arkansas - i am not optimistic))) Even im more moderate 2nd district))

[MilesC56]

This article from after Tim Griffin's RNC speech suggests that he'll run statewide in 2014, more likely for Governor though.

Either way, McDaniel and Pryor would still be favored in their respective contests. Also, with Griffin taking the plunge, Halter could run for his open seat.

May be i am wrong, but it's my feeling that, aside from liberal "base", Halter is almost universaly hated in Arkansas. He couldn't even win primary over Lincoln. And when i think about chances of such liberal candidate in more and more conservative (as of late) Arkansas - i am not optimistic))) Even im more moderate 2nd district))

I think Halter's loss in 2010 had more to do with the strength of Lincoln as an incumbent rather than his own weaknesses. Lincoln did unexpectedly well with black voters, especially in Little Rock, and was of course, very entrenched in her old Delta district. I'm guessing Bill Clinton's endorsement also helped her a lot.

Apparently, Halter is also seriously considering running for Governor. Ughhh...

[RogueBeaver]

I last heard he was running against Pryor. Personally I'd prefer Cotton be the one running for guv in 2018... fully Republicanize Arkansas.